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Global Economy: The First 11 Months Of Clothing Retail In The United States Stabilized Home Demand Recovery

2023/12/22 12:43:00 0

01 Clothing retail stabilized household demand recovery

The latest data from the US Department of Labor shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November rose 3.1% year on year and 0.1% month on month; Core CPI rose 4.0% year on year and 0.3% month on month. Fitch Ratings expects that the US CPI will fall back to 3.3% by the end of this year and further to 2.6% by the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve believes that the growth rate of economic activities in the United States has slowed down compared to the third quarter. Since September, the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate hikes for three consecutive times.

According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, influenced by the Thanksgiving Day and the "Black Friday" shopping festival in November, the growth rate of US retail sales in November turned from negative to positive, 0.3% month on month, 4.1% year-on-year, mainly driven by online retail, leisure and catering. This once again shows that although the economy shows signs of cooling, American consumer demand remains resilient.

Clothing stores: The retail sales in November were 26.12 billion US dollars, up 0.6% month on month and 1.3% year on year.

Furniture and home furnishing stores: The retail sales in November were 10.74 billion US dollars, up 0.9% month on month, down 7.3% year on year, 4.5 percentage points lower than that of last month.

General stores (including supermarkets and department stores): The retail sales in November were 72.91 billion US dollars, down 0.2% from the previous month and up 1.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of department stores reached US $10.53 billion, down 2.5% month on month and 5.2% year on year.

Non physical retailers: In November, retail sales reached US $118.55 billion, up 1% month on month and 10.6% year on year, with an expanded growth rate.

02 The inventory sales ratio tends to be stable

In October, the inventory/sales ratio of American clothing stores was 2.39, unchanged month on month; The inventory/sales ratio of furniture, home furnishing and electronic stores was 1.56, unchanged from the previous month.

03 Import decline narrowed China's share stopped falling

Textile and clothing: From January to October, the textile and clothing imports from the United States reached US $104.21 billion, down 23% year on year, and slightly narrowed by 0.5 percentage point compared with the previous September.

Import from China was 26.85 billion US dollars, down 27.6%; It accounted for 25.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points and a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous September.

Import from Vietnam was 13.8 billion US dollars, down 24.9%; Accounting for 13.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points.

Imports from India were US $8.7 billion, down 20.8%; Accounting for 8.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage point.

Textiles: From January to October, US textile imports reached US $29.14 billion, down 20.6% year on year, 1.8 percentage points lower than the previous September.

Imports from China reached US $10.87 billion, down 26.5%; Accounting for 37.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points.

Import from India was 4.61 billion US dollars, down 20.9%; Accounting for 15.8%, decreasing by 0.1 percentage point.

Imports from Mexico reached 2.2 billion US dollars, up 2.4%; Accounting for 7.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points.

Clothing: From January to October, US clothing imports reached US $77.22 billion, down 23.8% year on year, 0.2 percentage point lower than the previous September.

Imports from China reached 17.72 billion US dollars, down 27.6%; Accounting for 22.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points.

Imports from Vietnam totaled US $12.99 billion, down 24.7%; Accounting for 16.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.

Import from Bangladesh was 6.7 billion US dollars, down 25.4%; Accounting for 8.7%, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points.

04 Retail business performance

American Eagle Outfitters

In the three months ended October 28, American Eagle Outfitters' revenue increased by 5% year-on-year to $1.3 billion. The gross profit margin increased to 41.8%, the revenue of physical stores increased by 3%, and the digital business increased by 10%. During the period, the revenue of Aerie, the underwear business of the Group, soared by 12% to US $393 million, and that of American Eagle increased by 2% to US $857 million. For the whole year of this year, the group is expected to record a median single digit growth in sales.

G-III

In the third quarter ended October 31, DKNY parent company G-III's sales fell 1% to $1.07 billion from $1.08 billion in the same period last year, and its net profit nearly doubled from $61.1 million to $127 million. For fiscal year 2024, G-III is expected to record revenue of $3.15 billion, down from $3.23 billion in the same period of the previous year.

PVH

In the third quarter, the revenue of PVH Group increased by 4% year on year to $2.363 billion, of which Tommy Hilfiger increased by 4%, Calvin Klein increased by 6%, and the gross profit margin was 56.7%. The profit before interest and tax halved to $230 million year on year, and the inventory decreased by 19% compared with the same period of the previous year. However, due to the downturn of the general environment, the Group expects that its revenue will decline by 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Urban Outfitters

In the three months ended October 31, the sales of American apparel retailer Urban Outfitters increased by 9% year-on-year to $1.28 billion, and the net profit soared by 120% to $83 million, all of which hit a record high, mainly due to the strong growth of digital channels. During the period, the retail business of the Group grew by 7.3%, of which Free People and Anthropologie achieved growth of 22.5% and 13.2% respectively, while the brand of the same name dropped by 14.2%.

Vince

Vince, an American high-end clothing group, saw its sales drop 14.7% year-on-year to $84.1 million in the third quarter, with a net profit of $1 million, turning into a profit over the same period of the previous year. By channel, the wholesale business fell 9.4% year-on-year to $49.8 million, and the sales of the direct retail business fell 1.2% to $34.2 million.