Zheng Cotton Futures Rose Substantially Confused

Last week (December 23-27), in the first phase of the Sino US trade negotiations, the agreement will be signed by the good stimulus, the US disk has been rising for 5 weeks, Zheng cotton has remained unmoved, around the 40 day moving average has been consolidated for two weeks, in order to prevent the long disk down again, the unsold resources actively enter into the hedging, the futures market has accumulated a large number of guaranteed blank list. The off site speculation funds seem to have seen the opportunity. Last night Thursday night trading rose more, two trading days rose nearly 500 yuan / ton. The coverage of covered enterprises generally appeared 500-1000 yuan / ton. The cotton mill owner who is busy with cotton yarn goes to stock is facing a sudden rise in cotton prices. Due to the rising cotton prices, the cotton mill sales increased slightly, and prices also stopped rising. Cotton substitute polyester under the pressure of sales callback, return to below 7000 yuan / ton, viscose continue to be weak, and then new low, the price center of gravity to 9500 yuan / ton. The price of the CNCottonB index is 13467 yuan / ton, and the weekly rise is 86 yuan / ton, compared with the CF2001 contract of Zheng cotton futures, the spot premium is 317 yuan / ton, and the week is reduced by 189 yuan / ton.

Futures. The main contract CF2005 closed at 13645 yuan / ton on Friday, the week rose 245 yuan / ton, the turnover, the position has increased, the position has broken through 1 million hands. Bullish expectations are rising, buying hedging has increased, buying 36053 guarantees, increasing 525 hands, selling 98724 guarantees, increasing 3382 hands. Registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, the total amount reached 25879, an increase of 641, 5323 forecasts, an increase of 1008 last week, registered forecast is still dominated by intra warehouse, accounting for a slight decrease of 68.5%. In the absence of a marked improvement in post market consumption, capital speculation is not sustainable. Spot sales are slow, and the profit from selling water warehouse receipts is better than cash is the main reason why companies actively register warehouse receipts.

Us disk: with the news of the first stage agreement between China and the United States and the increase in China's actual purchases, it continued to rise and hit a new high. ICE's main contract closed at 68.75 cents / pound last Friday, rising 82 points on Friday. It has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, the volume has been shrinking, the continuous rise has accumulated a large number of profit margins may be realized, export data declined last week, especially in China, procurement has significantly reduced, if there is no fundamental good news follow up, the callback probability is larger. Continue to track the progress of trade negotiations.

On the spot. In the market where spot price mode is popularized, the futures point price transaction is significantly reduced. Under the pressure of cotton yarn sales, the price is weak, and facing the tight funds at the end of the year, the cotton mill purchases rarely catch up with the sudden rise of cotton prices. Most of them wait and see. If cotton yarn can not keep up, it may prompt the cotton mill to leave in advance to reduce the risk. When futures rose, fixed price resources rose smaller and sales were better. The expected growth of the processing enterprises in the territory, the willingness to sell and the relatively high quoted prices. The main body of spot trading in cotton mill is still concentrated in the mainland Treasury resources. The quotation is 13400-13700 yuan / ton in the territory, and the price is 13700-13900 yuan / ton in the mainland treasury with 28mm length and 27cN/tex below. Customs clearance India cotton 13500-13800 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 15500-16500 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton 13600-14300 yuan / ton, West Africa cotton 13500-14000 yuan / ton.

Acquisition of new cotton. The sale rate of new cotton is over 99%, and it is nearing completion. The processing rate is 92%. Sales rate of around 32%. This year, the purchase price is low, sales channels are more, spot, warehouse receipts, and rotation into three ways are optional, processing enterprises sales progress and benefits are better than last year. As of December 27th, 948 enterprises in the country declared 4 million 430 thousand tons of public inspection, increased by 360 thousand tons per week, less than 1 tons last week.

Operation suggestion. Capital speculation is too much, if there is no fundamental follow-up, or difficult to endure, technically facing 40 weeks of moving average resistance, the greater the probability of callback. The bailed out enterprises need to make plans and margin preparations, and speculators need to take advantage of the situation to keep track of the progress of Sino US negotiations.