Analysis And Forecast Of Polyester Staple Industry Market Trend In 2019

The trend of data from 2019-01-01 to 2019-12-25 is 359 days. First, do a descriptive statistical analysis and observe the basic data. The average, median (and four quantiles), mode numbers, geometric mean, harmonic mean, variance, standard deviation, and distribution of samples are usually examined.

From the price point of view, the lowest price is 6860 yuan / ton on from November 26th to 12th 5, the highest price is 9153 yuan / ton, from March 14th to March 18th, the two stage differentiation is not very serious, the difference between the peak and trough is 2293 yuan / ton, the average price is 8110 yuan / ton. Most of the time, the manufacturer's price is 7700 yuan / ton, the standard deviation 820 indicates that the price change of the manufacturer is particularly large, and the influence factors of price change are not only affected by supply and demand.

The purpose of describing statistical analysis is to observe the characteristics of samples from the presentational and holistic features, and take 5 common price indicators below.

Based on the above calculation, the following boxes are shown.

All data are within normal range and no outliers.

In the above chart, we compare the monthly average price with the annual average price and put it in the same chart. From the chart, we can see that by the end of December 25th this year, the price of PET staple fiber was higher than the annual average value in 1-5 months, and it dropped rapidly to the average in June. In July, the manufacturers wanted to raise prices but failed to exhaust the sky. After August, they fell at a faster rate and never went up again. From the overall trend, polyester staple fiber in 2019 is a typical high opening and low walking, after a slight struggle, no rebound.

　　 Two, industry chain analysis

　　 Upstream crude oil

The first quarter of crude oil soared and rose all the way. The biggest factor supporting the rise in oil prices is the reduction in Saudi Arabia and the US sanctions against Venezuela. The Sino US trade negotiations are relatively optimistic under the macro environment. The three crude oil monthly reports suggest that US crude oil inventories are down, and Trump frequently said that the tolerance for high oil prices is decreasing. All these factors support the high price of oil. In the second quarter, crude oil prices continued to attack upwards, and oil prices remained at 60-66 US dollars / barrel, but then all the way down and a slight pullback. The old Iran issue expired in May. The United States did not continue to waive the extension on this issue. The Sino US trade agreement was stronger than expected. The US crude oil storage declined and supported oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia avoided excessive oil production in order to avoid high oil prices. The rapid rise of the market led to a sharp decline in the market. Due to the extremely weak oil price in May, the OPEC meeting decided to postpone the production. The subsequent US summer travel peak led to the demand for crude oil, and oil prices rebounded slightly in the collapse. Seasonal consumption in the third quarter led to continuous oil stocks in the US, and Iran crude oil output and exports declined. The geopolitical situation brought oil prices to a higher level. Then the oil price dropped steeply, and the US and China increased tariffs and crude oil production. Saudi Arabia's production cut was hard to sustain. The Sino US negotiations have released a game of good signals and weak demand, leading to a rise and fall in oil prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall trend of oil prices rose sharply, and the demand for crude oil began to pick up. The OPEC meeting did not deepen production cuts, but it continued to extend production for 3-6 months. Trade between China and the United States has formally agreed on the first stage economic and trade agreement.

　　 Upstream PTA

Note: the correlation coefficient is rigorous at the mathematical level, but because the business level is changeable, it is for reference only.

The correlation coefficient R=0.9492 between PTA and PET staple has a strong correlation. The trend of PTA is almost the same as that of PET staple fiber, so it has an extremely high correlation, so this is the typical product of upstream industry chain.

The annual trend of PTA is divided into four stages, the first stage (1-2 months), and this stage is interspersed with the new year's trend. Saudi Arabia's production cuts, Sino US trade negotiations were optimistic, OPEC actively implemented production reduction plans, global stock markets were recovering, and polyester factories reduced production and shut down compared with market expectations, making PTA showing a unilateral rise in the early stage; late Fuhua industrial and trade PTA plant increased production, Trump sang empty oil prices, but PTA suppliers announced the maintenance plan and PX's strong trend to ease the downturn, and the fall was controlled. The second phase (3-5 months) Hengli Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand tons / year PX device has been put into operation, PX capacity supply pressure increased sharply, PTA cost end pressure significantly, but during this period, Han Bang petrochemical, Ningbo Yisheng, Zhuhai BP and many other device maintenance information support, ease the market for the supply side of the worry, also caused 3-4 3-4 months price repeated ups and down. 5 in the mid and late months, the overall escalation of Sino US contradictions, the large-scale reduction of polyester factories and the end of PTA spot repurchase by suppliers ended in a downfall of PTA. In the third stage (June), supply and demand jointly worked to usher in the PTA market. Due to accidental overhaul and late factory maintenance, the supply is tight. The demand side has fallen to a low level due to polyester price. Polyester stock has been dropping rapidly at terminal polyester. Under the support of low inventory, polyester enterprises have opened up the procurement of PTA, and the demand for PTA has improved. And under the macro environment, the United States announced that it would no longer impose tariffs on China, making PTA rise rapidly. In the fourth stage (7-12 months), the demand is sluggish, the supply is unbalanced, and PTA tends to rise and fall. Mainly in the poor performance of the terminal orders, PTA prices rose rapidly, for the polyester industry, its cost rose sharply and demand follow-up is not enough, so with the polyester production reduction, PTA high decline. In addition, since October, under the background of trade war and macro expected weakness, PTA has been following the entire chemical industry, and at the same time superimposed the expected future production capacity. PTA weakness has been set.

　　 Upstream polyester

The correlation coefficient R=0.963 of polyester and PET staple has a high correlation, so this is the typical product of upstream industry chain.

During the first quarter, pet prices declined slightly, and the overall trend was rising all the way. In January and February approaching the new year, polyester factories are running at low load, and most manufacturers stop production and maintenance, so the operating rate is near 76%. In March, the polyester plant was restarted, operating rate was around 86%, cash flow performed well, and prices surged year after year, reaching the highest price in the whole year. The price of polyester in the second quarter was clear. Prices began to fall from the beginning of April, and bottomed out in mid May until the end of June. From April to the beginning of May, the 300 thousand tons of Jiangnan high fiber plant, Luoyang Petrochemical Company and Luoyang Shihua 100 thousand ton plant were restarted, the capacity increased, the operating rate was above 90%, and the middle end demand was mediocre, resulting in a price fall. In the late stage, the poor performance of the middle end restricts the start-up of polyester, and the repair and restarting of the equipment are parallel, and the price rebounded slightly. In the third quarter of 7 and 8 February, 600 thousand tons of Tong Kun, 300 thousand tons of new Feng Ming and the restart of Shanghai yuan spinning and Jiangyin Cheng advanced equipment led to a cliff breaking fall in July, and then the overall operating rate of polyester in 8 and 9 months was kept near 90%. The factory started relatively stable, and the overall profit and storage level performed well, so the price remained stable in the past two months. The third quarter of the fourth quarter continued to decline. Although the current stock level of polyester is relatively low, but the terminal demand is very low. Double eleven and double textile and garment enterprises purchase raw materials 1-2 months ahead of schedule. The orders for the fourth quarter are near the end. And this year, affected by the warm winter weather, the enterprises are cautious in purchasing the fabrics in autumn and winter, and the order stamina is not enough, resulting in the price being flat at the end of the year.

　　 Downstream polyester yarn

The correlation coefficient R=0.8623 between polyester yarn and polyester staple has a strong correlation, so it is analyzed as a typical product in the downstream industry chain.

In the first quarter, before the Spring Festival, the price of polyester yarn tended to be stable, and there was a slight increase. The most important task of the enterprises was to return the funds, so as to cope with the large amount of capital demand before and after the Spring Festival. Some cotton mills which are reluctant to cut prices are getting more and more. Because of the unsatisfactory price of yarn sales, the profit margins have been squeezed and financial pressure has been brought. Factories have to start early holidays, and the delay in long holidays has led to a slight decline in polyester yarn prices after the holidays. The second quarter gold three silver four phenomenon did not appear, after a short period of stability, then all the way down. Sino US trade situation continues to deteriorate, tariff increases, upstream raw material costs plunge to yarn conduction, downstream demand is weak, orders are few, slow returns, and the national cotton price has dropped sharply, the cost of external yarn has dropped considerably. The pressure on domestic yarn is increasing. After entering mid June, the number of stop production enterprises increased, and prices tended to be weak and stable. The third quarter, 7-8 February, continued the weakness of the second quarter. It was a low yarn season, with fewer orders. Sino US trade, exchange rate fluctuations and pressure on clothing exports led to price stability. Although September was the start of the peak season, the yarn market was dominated by the bad market and the market had not improved significantly. The main reason is that textile mills have fewer orders, poor capital turnover, and a prominent problem of workers' turnover. The most important thing is that stocks are still at a high level, and the purchase of raw yarns is not active in the lower reaches, which generally reduces prices and leads to price declines. In the fourth quarter, the overall yarn market remained stable, but the characteristics of the peak season were very obvious. As a result, the orders of textile mills were generally low, and the production and production restriction were still the mainstream. Textile enterprises could hardly maintain normal production. Secondly, the start-up rate of the textile enterprises remained stable, but the pressure of the weaving factories was still generally larger. The fabric of autumn and winter had also been in the end. The enthusiasm of the manufacturers was gradually decreasing.

　　 Three. Conclusion and prediction

The price trend of upstream crude oil is closely related to geopolitics and supply and demand relations. Geopolitical related keywords such as Sino US trade negotiations, Venezuelan situation, Iran exemptions and G20 summit this year have provoked the nerves of oil prices. The key words of supply and demand related to OPEC reduction agreements, Saudi Arabia's production reduction and US crude oil inventories have affected the trend of oil prices. At present, Sino US trade has reached an agreement, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait open up neutral oil fields. Non OPEC countries such as Brazil have played a role in suppressing the OPEC reduction next year. The time for production reduction is expected to be shortened. In addition, the latest EIA report shows that the US crude oil inventories have fallen beyond the pre forecast period. The favorable situation is favorable for oil market, and oil prices are expected to be a good start early next year.

The restart and overhaul of upstream PTA and PET plant is the primary factor. The cost of processing is high, the terminal demand is weak, the order is flat, and PTA is ending with a downward trend. The trend of downstream polyester yarn this year is even more insipid, and the cost of outer yarn is falling considerably, which brings pressure to domestic yarn. Frequent tariffs on Sino US trade are also a blow to polyester yarn, which is not strong in the peak season, lighter in the off-season, less in order, slow in return, broken in capital chain, weak in terminal demand, high in inventory, and huge in the survival pressure of enterprises. The whole year is shrouded in pessimism.

2019 is a difficult year for textiles. Based on the trend of 2018-2019 years, we forecast the price of PET staple in the first half of next year. (this method is more rigorous at the mathematical level, changing at the business level, for reference only). In the first half of next year, the price of 1.4D PET staple will fluctuate between (47437023), with a lower price limit of (65567160) and a price ceiling of (72608369).