Chemical Fiber Market: In The "Cold Winter" Period

Since 2015, due to the continuous optimization of industrial policies, the opening of stock cycle, the decline of cotton quality and the impact of imported yarn, cotton prices are at the bottom of the market, and the imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for the price decline.

From the US cotton supply and demand balance sheet released in December by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), we can see that China's final inventory in 2015 is 14 million 160 thousand tons, but consumption is only 7 million 80 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is as high as 200.06%.

At the same time downstream

In recent years, the price of imported yarn has been declining continuously due to the fact that the imported yarn has seized the market and the demand is not strong.

After hitting the bottom rebound in the past 10 years since the beginning of March 2015, it has risen 3000 yuan / ton in 7 months, rising by more than 26%.

The main reason is the improvement of viscose staple supply pattern. After adjustment in recent years, the growth rate of viscose staple fiber began to slow down in 2013, and the growth rate in 2015 was even lower to 5.2%.

Moreover, the environmental constraints were more stringent in 2015, and the supply side decreased significantly. In March, the closure capacity involved more than 20 tons, accounting for 5% of the total capacity of 2015.

Demand for weaving and clothing continues to slump, spandex.

The decline is still further expanding, acrylonitrile production capacity growth is too fast, the surplus situation is aggravated, the industry chain from the top of the previous year directly dropped to the end of 2015, especially the PTA industry chain price below 5000 yuan / ton low concussion operation, April two explosion accident short term boost market, but it is only "flash in the pan", prices continue to refresh the historical low.

Up to now, China's PTA has an excess capacity of about 15 million tons. In this context, the drop in capacity, the slow release of new capacity, and the low maintenance rate of the industry are prominent.

Upstream international crude oil prices accelerated decline, the US crude oil futures contract fell to a minimum of 34.53 U.S. dollars / barrel, exacerbating the plight of the PTA industry.

In the lower reaches, polyester is affected by low cost, excess supply and low demand.

The textile market in 2015 showed a general weakness.

The textile market will continue to explore in 2016, but it will be slightly better than in 2015.

Data show that most of the product prices hit a new low, of which cotton, acrylic and nylon were 5 years low. Viscose staple fiber and PTA industrial chain products also hit a new low of nearly 10 years; only the viscose industry chain was rising, namely cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber.

The remaining commodities were on a downward trend, with the top three ranking being acrylonitrile, acrylic staple and spandex.