Rising Pressure On International Cotton Market In The Late Stage

The monthly analysis of < p > us a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Cotton Corp < /a > in September shows that the ICE futures and the Klock index have fluctuated back to the level a month ago in the past month, while India cotton prices have risen.

In mid August, the ICE futures contract rose sharply in December, rising from 85 cents to 93 cents, and then quickly fell below 85 cents, and has continued to the present.

Over the same period, the A index dropped to 89 cents after the ICE futures rose to 97 cents.

Compared with a month ago, the price of domestic S-6 in India has risen, and the price of this variety is close to 96 cents in most of the recent time.

In addition, spot prices in Pakistan are stable near 78 cents, while spot prices in China are slightly lower.

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< p > the US Department of agriculture forecast September to increase global production and reduce global consumption.

The output of 2013/14 increased by 220 thousand tons to 25 million 560 thousand tons. The main reason was that India's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > cotton production < /a > increased significantly, reaching a record high of 6 million 310 thousand tons, and India cotton accounted for a record 24.7% of the world's total output.

The output of Brazil and Greece increased slightly, and the output of US cotton was reduced by 34 thousand tons.

Global consumption is down by 70 thousand tons, even though it has increased before the increase in cotton prices. It is still 3 million 130 thousand tons less than the peak of 2006/07, which is about 110 thousand tons less than the 24 million tons in the most severe period of global economic crisis in 2008/09.

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< p > with the increase of global output and the reduction of consumption, the end of the world stock has increased to 20 million 600 thousand tons, an increase of 10% over the same period, which is more than 50% higher than the highest level before the 2010/11 cotton price inflation.

From 2004/05 to 2008/09, the end of the world inventory is between 1320-1370 tons, and the A index is 60 cents.

At present, the global stock level has risen sharply, but the A index of the Klock has exceeded 90 cents, mainly due to China's cotton policy.

China's storage policy has led to 60% of the global cotton stock in China, while the available cotton resources are very limited, so China's cotton import demand in the last two years is strong, which makes the stock of other parts of the world difficult to increase, thus keeping the international cotton price at a high level.

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< p > at the same time, China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton policy < /a > also limits the decline of international cotton prices and cotton planting area, but the global cotton consumption has failed.

Without China's purchase and storage of the world's excess cotton stocks, international cotton prices may be lower than chemical fiber prices.

If cotton prices can fall to a more competitive level, the proportion of cotton to fiber consumption may have returned to its high level in recent years.

China's cotton policy may be adjusted in 2014/15.

At present, China has made it clear that it is not feasible to purchase and store for a long time. Therefore, the intensity of dumping may increase and China's import demand may also decrease.

All these will bring pressure to the international a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton price < /a >.

However, the current policy remains stable throughout the year, and the current policy will continue to provide support for the international cotton price before the new year policy comes out.

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