World Bank Warns Global Economic Risks

P World, the World Bank (World Bank), said in its latest economic forecast on Tuesday that the US budget debate is stifling global economic growth and that the risk to the global economy is bigger than that of the resurgence of the euro zone crisis.

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< p > the world bank predicts that in 2013, the a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" and the global economy < /a will increase by only 2.4%, compared with that in 2012.

If the federal budget cuts in the US are scheduled to take effect in early March, the US economy will probably fall into recession.

The euro zone economic downturn is also expected to continue throughout the year.

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At the same time, the growth rate of developing countries will be near the lowest level in the past 10 years. P

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P Kaushik, chief economist of the world bank, said it was a year of risk.

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P > most economies will continue to show serious internal differentiation: on the one hand, investor sentiment is rising, driven by strong monetary stimulus and fears of disintegration in the euro area, but on the other hand, the fundamentals of the economy remain weak.

Basu said financial market tensions were moderated, but economic growth did not improve.

He said, "you can keep the market quiet for a year or two, but without the support of real economic growth, financial risks will come again."

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< p > facts have proved that, like other institutions, the world bank's economic forecast in recent years is too optimistic.

The bank's latest forecast for the growth rate of < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > global economy < /a > 2013 is 3% lower than that given in June last year.

The economists blamed the disappointing results on weaker than expected us business investment and uncertainties associated with US budget policy.

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A hypothesis that the world bank predicts that the US economy will grow by 1.9% this year is that the United States has made "great progress" in its medium-term budget plan, not just a short-term plan to raise the federal debt ceiling, P.

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Under the assumption that the bank is called "financial paralysis", the United States will start implementing a large-scale and full range of government reduction measures in March. The Congress will only approve the debt ceiling in the short term, which will lead to a 0.4% contraction in the US economy, a more severe recession in Europe and a 1.4 percentage point drop in global economic growth.

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< p > the world bank also assumes that the euro zone crisis is coming back (when two economies in the euro area will be rejected by the capital market), the global economic growth rate will be lowered by 1.3 percentage points in this scenario.

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"P Basu" said that in view of the importance of the United States to emerging economies, the United States avoided the so-called fiscal cliff most of the measures to take effect is "very comforting".

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< p > he said that a stable and strong American economy is irreplaceable for the importance of developing countries. The United States should now change its mentality and do not attempt to extinguish the financial fires again and again, but should strive to discover non flammable substances, that is, structural reforms should be carried out so that the ignition point will not be detonated frequently as it is now.

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< p > > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > World Bank < /a > indicates that unlike the previous years, if the situation in the eurozone continues to improve and the United States solves the budget problem satisfactorily, then the global economy may have a better performance as the housing and employment market changes to support the US economy.

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P Andrew, the World Bank economist and chief editor of the report, said that although the current risk is similar to that of a year ago, the severity of potential risks has been significantly reduced, and the potential risk of final risk formation has also been greatly reduced. "Burns"

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< p > the bank once again urges developing countries to focus on reforming domestic policies, such as investment strategies in infrastructure, medical and educational fields, in order to consolidate the foundation of long-term economic growth.

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Less than P, the contribution of developing economies to global economic growth exceeded 50% last year.

The overall economic growth of developing economies was 5.1% last year, and is expected to grow by 5.5% this year.

Although this growth rate has slowed down significantly over the past ten years, it is still far higher than the average annual growth rate of about 3.5% in the last 70 and 80s.

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Last year, Global trade growth slowed sharply, with a growth rate of only 3.5%, which is partly a drag on investment and industrial weakness in the developed economies. P

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< p > the world bank said that with the increase in domestic demand and expansion of foreign trade in developing countries, Global trade is expected to increase by 6% this year.

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