On August 13, The Shanghai Index Opened 0.22% Lower, With Textiles Leading The Decline And Ceramics Leading The Rise

Today, both cities are open at a low level, Shanghai Index It closed at 2164.04, down 4.77 points, or 0.22%, with a turnover of 377 million yuan. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 11.74 points, or 0.13%, to 9226.46, with a turnover of 424 million yuan.

From the perspective of the market, the ceramic sector led the rise, spin Cement, electrical appliances and other sectors led the decline. In terms of individual stocks, Asia Pacific Technology (13.92, 1.27, 10.04%) and Chunhui Shares (4.64, 0.42, 9.95%) were trading at the opening limit.

On the news side, the State Council's property market supervision team set a strict tone to control the price rebound; The net profit of 846 listed companies increased slightly in the first half of the year; The research report data of Shanghai Stock Exchange revealed huge entrusted loans of 5 companies; The CSRC has given priority to the IPO review of western enterprises since August; The illegal account of Shanghai Stock Exchange against the resurgence of speculation was suspended from trading; 13 billion shares of Bank of Communications were fixed: large shareholders generously supported by the country; The scheme of Quanzhou Jingai Experimental Zone was reported, and the private financing for water testing was registered; Refinancing will subvert the profit model of A-share and focus on participating in securities companies first; Steel enterprises expand production against the wind, and the more eliminated the capacity of the steel industry, the larger the scale; Many cement plants started in violation of regulations, and the industry overcapacity was on the verge of collapse; USDA lowered the global crop supply forecast, and food prices may continue to fluctuate; The disclosure of the mid report of 16 institutions' heavy positions: reverse position adjustment of peer funds, etc.

Zhongshan Securities believes that both the main in and out indicators and the main band indicators have sent a buying signal, but some quantitative indicators are still in the bottom area, suggesting that the future rebound needs to be consolidated. If there is a more relaxed policy on the news side and the transaction continues to expand, investors can increase their positions to participate in the rebound, but they must pay close attention to the follow-up trend of various quantitative indicators.

CICC said that from a technical point of view, it is reasonable that there was a technical rebound in August. First of all, because A-shares have all fallen in the past three months, and A-shares have never had four consecutive months of negative returns since 2005, from this rule, there is a greater probability of a technical rebound in August to close the monthly positive line. From the perspective of time point, August is also the last possible month in the year, considering many adverse factors such as the increased pressure of housing price rebound in the fourth quarter, the seasonal tightening of capital, and the arrival of the non lifting peak Policy adjustment And rebound opportunities.

Founder Securities believes that last week, driven by the activity of individual stocks and the support of index stocks, the market rebounded from the long lost market. The total turnover of the two cities has been enlarged, the earning effect of theme stocks and ultra falling stocks, the expectation of macro-control policies caused by CPI breaking 2, and the loose re listing policy for delisted stocks. Market sentiment has recovered, and market confidence has also been initially stabilized, This is Market rebound It is also the driving force for the market to stand above the 5-week moving average. Technically, last week, the market increased by price and volume. After breaking through the pressure of the downward channel, it stood on the 5-week average and the 30 day average, and was strongly supported by 2148 points, which created conditions for the future market to further expand space. This week, the market is expected to challenge the pressure of the 10 week average and the 2200 integer threshold. However, in the short term, the market showed a deviation between volume and price last Friday, The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show signs of deviation from the top, which restricts the short-term rebound space of the market, but the 5-week moving average has formed support for the market, indicating that the market is expected to go out of the trend of first restraining and then rising this week.

Dongxing Securities expects that the index will maintain the pattern of bottom shock in the next two to three weeks, and continue to rebound slightly. Investors can moderately increase their participation in the market, and the downside risk of the index should not be large until the initial target of this rebound is reached. In the allocation, it is suggested that investors should pay attention to the opportunities of oversold rebound of some cyclical stocks, increase the allocation proportion of financial and infrastructure related sectors, and pay attention to the possibility of covering the decline of early strong stocks.

Peripheral messages:

After a period of big movements, the subtle moments that usually occur in the stock market will come again: whether you are bullish or bearish on the future market, these two aspects are now in a state of equal strength.

The S&P 500 index has risen 12% so far this year. This year's performance from January to July was the best since 2003, and the second best since 1998. This sounds like a bull market.

But obviously, market Its good performance does not match the high degree of prudence expressed by many investors. This may be mainly because there is an idea in the market that the market situation may become very bad and very fast.