The PTA Device Is Busy &Nbsp.

Today, with the full announcement of economic data in July, the CPI index is the highest in the year. For a moment, the call for inflation is everywhere. However, due to August and September PTA device The high inspection and repair will lay the foundation for the stability of the PTA market. cautious 。

First, favorable factors weakened PTA no room to increase again.

Recently, the economic data in July have been released. The consumer price index (CPI) has reached a new high in the year, expanding by 0.4 percentage points to 3.3%, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) has increased by 4.8% compared with the same period last year, and the ratio of the consumer price index has dropped 1.6%. Although bank deposit reserve ratio has not been followed up, interest on deposits has also kept a low level, but with the rise of international commodity prices in the future, PPI and even industrial enterprises, consumer prices will follow further upward. Inflation prevention has become an important macro economic issue in China. The July PMI figures released in August 1st also indicate that domestic economic growth has begun to slow down. In July, the PMI composite index fell to 51.2, the production index also fell 3.1 to 52.7, and finished product inventory index dropped, breaking through the 50 demarcation line, showing that stock has increased.

The US Federal Reserve announced on 10 March that the federal funds rate will remain at the lowest level of zero to 0.25%. It will also maintain the scale of existing bonds by buying more treasury bonds. In the second quarter of this year, the US economy increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate declined for second consecutive quarters. In July, the number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector decreased by 131 thousand, and for second consecutive months. The economy of other countries has not seen any marked improvement. Britain's Nationwide consumer confidence index plunged 7 points to 56, far below the previous forecast of 61, while Japan's core machinery orders fell to -2.2% at an annual rate of 6.5%, while the Australian Westpac consumer confidence index fell to 5.4% in June, down 11.1%. In June, France's industrial output fell by 1.7% on a monthly basis, a drop larger than expected in the market. These disappointing figures do not show a healthy and positive economic environment, and the consumer confidence index continues to be callback. market The outlook for the post market is still full of worries, or it will further drag up the PTA price.

Two, PTA profit Over 1000 yuan, high profits also bring high supply.

Affected by poor economic data, international oil prices fell slightly by 1.51% on the 10 day. The New York Mercantile Exchange's September crude oil futures price settled at 80.25 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.23 US dollars, or 1.51%; London Brent crude futures clearing price in September was 79.60 US dollars, down 1.39 US dollars. According to the latest data released by China Customs, 19 million tons of imported crude oil fell 3 million 270 thousand tons in July, and crude oil imports in July were not only lower than the 22 million 270 thousand tons recorded in June, but also lower than the 19 million 600 thousand tons of imports in the same period last year. The decrease in crude oil imports is mainly affected by the slowdown in domestic economic growth. The July is the peak period of crude oil consumption. At this time, the callback not only shows that the market is still weak, but also the weakness of foreign markets has also affected the development of domestic manufacturing industry. Crude oil continues to linger on the front line of $80. As the source of PTA, crude oil has been highly affecting the trend of PTA.

Upstream raw materials PX10 continued to show rising trend, of which the average price of PTA internal disk spot 7220 yuan / ton, unchanged, yesterday, once the spot in Zhangjiagang 7240 yuan / ton close. External aspects. The market has a relatively stable trading atmosphere. The spot price of Taiwan products is generally around $890, with a turnover of around $880. The Korean side has been waiting for the anti-dumping results, and the offer price is not large, some of which are quoted at 870 US dollars / ton.

According to the cost relationship between crude oil and PX, at present, naphtha and heterogeneous MX have certain profit margins, while the profits of domestic PTA are higher, breaking through 1000 yuan, while PX producers are in a small deficit.

(1) 1 tons of crude oil =7.35 barrels.

Crude oil prices closed at $79.60 per barrel in September, according to the August 10th Beihai Brent crude oil futures price.

79.60 x 7.35=585.06 US dollars / ton

(2) the processing cost of crude naphtha is 35 - 50 US dollars / ton.

585.06+ (35-50) =615.06-635.06 US dollars / ton

In August 10th, naphtha market price fell 2 US dollars, CFR Japan was US $697 / ton, the profit space was only 61.94 - 81.94 US dollars / ton.

(3) naphtha MX processing cost 50 - 60 US dollars / ton

697+ (50-60) =747-757 US dollars / ton

The price of the heterogeneous MX market is stable at FOB Korea 810 US dollars / ton, gross profit 53-63 US dollars / ton.

(4) the processing cost of MX - PX is 80 - 100 US dollars / ton.

810+ (80-100) =890-900 US dollars / ton

PX market price FOB Korea stabilized at 870 US dollars / ton, losing 20-30 US dollars / ton.

(5) cost calculation of PTA

External price calculation: PX-PTA processing cost is 170 - 200 US dollars / ton.

870 x 0.66+170 - 200=744.42-764.42 USD / ton

The PTA spot market was absorbed by the stockpile and the offer was scarce. The price of Taiwan's sporadic offer rose by US $10 / ton to US $885 / ton, and the bonded goods quoted at US $890 / ton. The profit margin is US $140.8-145.8 / ton.

PTA price calculation for internal market:

The processing cost of domestic PTA is 1200 yuan: 870 x 0.66* (1+17% (VAT)) x 6.78 (exchange rate) x 1.02+1200=5845 yuan / ton. The profit margin is around 1400 yuan / ton.

Import PTA cash price =890* (1+17% (value added tax)) x 6.78 (exchange rate) =7060 yuan / ton profit space in 200 yuan / ton nearby.

PTA profits exceed 1000 yuan, high profits also drive more new capacity. This year, the boot rate of PTA devices has been maintained at over 90% this year, and Hengli and other new capacity are also expanding the domestic PTA market. In 2009, the domestic PTA capacity reached 15 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2010 is expected to reach 19 million tons, which will lead to an oversupply of PTA.

Three, the purchase and sale of downstream polyester is slowing down, and PTA demand is decreasing.

Recently, the electricity market policy in Zhejiang has been playing a continuous role in the polyester market. The recent elimination of backward production capacity has further reduced the market demand of PTA. The production and sales of polyester and silk products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have remained flat. Most factories produce and sell at 7-9. A few of them are relatively flat, and the local ones are only 4-6. In the atmosphere of economic recovery, domestic textile and clothing import and export data continued to show strong momentum of growth. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of textiles and garments in China in July 2010 was 20 billion 795 million US dollars, an increase of 11.41%, an increase of 27.01% over the same period last year. Among them, textile exports amounted to US $7 billion 191 million, an increase of 35.09% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $13 billion 604 million, an increase of 23.12% over the same period last year. From September last year, hot sales swept the textile market. Customs data showed that from September 2009 to July 2010, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 171 billion 797 million US dollars, an increase of 16 billion 358 million US dollars, an increase of 10.52%. Among them, textile exports totaled $65 billion 387 million, an increase of 21.67% over the previous year, and clothing exports totaled $106 billion 410 million, an increase of 4.64% over the same period last year. Although good data bring gratifying results, we must not forget that last September to July this year, all kinds of textile raw materials increased by more than 20% (cotton yarn increased by over 50%), while the actual export prices did not follow this rally, and domestic textile enterprises were thin in profits, "they were all doing wedding clothes for others". In addition, the cost pressure of textile raw materials is still outstanding in the second half of the year, and the enormous pressure of RMB appreciation will affect the sustainable development of the textile industry. In the second half of this year, China's textile industry will show a trend of "before, after, and after".

Although crude oil prices continue to linger on the 80 US dollar line, PTA's "three high" (high profit, high opening rate and high inventory) situation is difficult to change in the short term. The production and marketing of the polyester industry in the lower reaches is weak, and the demand for PTA has begun to decrease. However, the road to recovery in the international market is rough, and PTA's bullish road is rugged. However, in August and September, devices in various locations were stopped for maintenance, which would lay the foundation for the stability of PTA.

As Asia's major PTA manufacturers stop overhauling, the supply of PTA in Asia will become more intense in August and September. Sinopec's Yangzi Petrochemical three total production capacity of 1 million 300 thousand tons / year production line will stop from August 13th to September 10th. China Xianglu petrochemical production capacity of 1 million 500 thousand tons / year device will stop from August 20th to September; IOC production capacity of 550 thousand tons / year production line will stop from August 23rd to mid October; South Korea KP chemical production capacity is 550 thousand tons / year 3 PTA device initial parking, maintenance for 2 weeks; China Formosa Plastics production capacity in Ningbo area is 600 thousand tons / year PTA device parking on the day of -25. Taiwan FCFC plans to stop and repair the 700 thousand ton / year PTA device of Longde from November. The maintenance time is 2 weeks.

In the short term, the "three high" situation of PTA is difficult to change. In the long run, the PTA device is being overhauled or brought to the market for short supply tension. Therefore, the market needs to be cautious about PTA.