Market Analysis: USDA Monthly Report In November Showed That American Cotton Exports Decreased

The balance sheet of American cotton in 2024/25 shows that the output will decline slightly, the export volume will decline, and the ending inventory will increase. In its November crop yield report, NASS lowered its estimate of US cotton yield by 10000 bales to just under 14.2 million bales.

The crops in Georgia increased by about 200000 bales, but the crops in Texas also decreased by 200000 bales. Small changes have also taken place in other places. The national cotton yield is estimated to be the same as last month, with 789 pounds per acre. With the decrease of global consumption and imports, the export volume of the United States decreased by 200000 packets to 11.3 million packets. The inventory at the end of the period increased by 200000 packages to 4.3 million packages, and the inventory to use ratio was about 33%. The average price of highland farms in 2024/25 remained unchanged at 66 cents per pound. The US cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 has not been revised.

World production, consumption, opening and closing inventories, and trade all decreased in the global balance sheet in 2024/25. The output decreased by 460000 bales, with Pakistan and Turkmenistan having the largest reduction.

The consumption decreased by 515000 bags, mainly due to the decrease of consumption in Turkey and Pakistan. The inventory at the end of the period decreased by 574000 packages, of which the sharp decrease in India, Turkmenistan and Pakistan offset the increase in the United States and Uzbekistan. The decrease in Turkey's imports was partly offset by the increase in imports from Uzbekistan and Egypt, resulting in a decrease of 295000 packages in world trade.

In the 2023/24 global balance sheet, the historical revision of output resulted in a decrease in ending inventory.