Market Observation: Global Cotton Prices Both Hit Bottom And Rebounded

According to the feedback of cotton trade enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Wuhan and other places, since August, the main contract of ICE cotton season in December has successively dropped below the integer threshold of 70 cents/pound and 67 cents/pound. In addition, the announcement on the import sliding tax quota of 200000 tons of cotton will be issued in 2024. Some textile factories above designated size are active in inquiry and purchase of port bonded cotton, Australian cotton and Brazilian cotton for immediate and July December shipping.

At the same time, Zheng Mian's main CF2409 contract fell below 14000 yuan/ton and 13500 yuan/ton, causing some small and medium-sized cotton mills to pay more attention to the port's RMB quotation resources, and the base price and shipment oscillation recovered. Bonded cotton and non bonded cotton transactions both hit the bottom and rebounded.

However, due to the arrival of American cotton in Hong Kong in 2023/24 for nearly half a month, the stock in of American cotton is still strong, and the "import exceeds export" of Indian cotton, Pakistani machine picked cotton, Argentine machine picked cotton, Turkish machine picked cotton, etc., the total stock of cotton in China's main ports before the middle of August has not fluctuated significantly compared with that of last month, and has not dropped significantly with the sharp plunge of ICE cotton and Zheng cotton. According to the survey and prediction of some international cotton merchants and large and medium-sized cotton enterprises, the total inventory of bonded and non bonded cotton in China's main ports may still be 535000 to 550 tons.

From the quotation of some cotton traders, the bonded Brazilian cotton in Qingdao and Zhangjiagang on August 13-14 1-1/8 (strong 28/29GPT, the grade, length and other indicators of Brazilian cotton harvested in the later period have declined). The net weight quotation is concentrated at 73.56-75.26 (some cotton enterprises have low inventory and relatively abundant funds, and the price is stable at 77 cents/pound without negotiation). The import cost is 12935-13225 yuan/ton under 1% tariff, The import cost under sliding standard tariff is 13930-14115 yuan/ton (the import difference under sliding standard tariff and 1% tariff is 700-1150 yuan/ton). At present, 3128B/3129B (breaking ratio strength 28/29CN/TEX, main grade 31) of inland warehouses in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are about 14350-14650 yuan/ton (traders and ginners' quotations are very confused, with large differences). Considering the differences in net weight and public weight settlement, From August 13 to 14, domestic and foreign cotton prices were about 1400-1900 yuan/ton under 1% tariff (compared with bonded Brazilian cotton and Xinjiang cotton), and about 500-950 yuan/ton under sliding standard tariff. For cotton enterprises with export orders (including traceability) and domestic demand orders, imported cotton still plays a key role in reducing the cost of spinning materials and improving product competitiveness.