Market Quotation: Polyester Staple Fiber Is Close To The High Price Of 7900 Yuan/Ton

According to the recent agency survey data, due to the rising cost of polyester, in order to protect the processing costs, polyester filament and staple fiber factories have adopted the pricing method of "polymerization cost+processing costs", which has been implemented very firmly. Since the middle and late June, the polyester staple fiber factory has raised its offer. The spot price has risen by 200~300 yuan/ton, once approaching the high price of 7900 yuan/ton.

As of July 3, PTA spot mainstream price has increased by 79 yuan/ton to 6110 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol spot mainstream price has increased by 34 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton, the equivalent polymerization cost has increased by 79 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of polyester staple fiber has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton. However, due to the fear of rising costs, downstream polyester yarn also increased procurement. Two days before the price increase of staple fiber, the average production and sales once reached 280%. At present, both staple fiber and filament POY have returned to profitability, and the effect of maintaining profits is relatively obvious. It can be said that under the leadership of filament and staple fiber, the polyester industry chain has gradually begun to have the power to fight for a voice.

At present, both filament POY and staple fiber processing fees have reached a new high since the end of 2022, among which the spot processing fees of staple fiber once soared to around 350 yuan/ton, and the cash flow also reached the profit level of 200 yuan/ton. However, from a closer look, both the current filament POY and the staple fiber have so far only realized the repair of the previous losses. It is still too early to say that the whole industry is back on its feet.

In the short term, the price holding sentiment of polyester and staple fiber markets still exists, and the support of the raw material end is also in place. It is expected that the consolidation is expected to be stronger in the near future.

　 The spot stock of staple fiber reaches the low point in the year

As of July 4, domestic staple fiber inventory days were 7.25 days, up 13.46% from the previous week; The domestic staple fiber load is basically stable at about 76.66%, which is at a low level in the same period of history. After seeing the remarkable effect of the new pricing model for staple fibers, mainstream manufacturers of staple fibers began to imitate the price protection model of limiting prices or anchoring processing fees and reverse adjusting the operating rate. Therefore, at present, the operating rate of staple fibers is not at a low position in the year, which indicates that enterprises have indeed changed the old model of reducing load - reducing inventory - price protection - profit protection.

In terms of inventory, as of July 4, the staple fiber inventory reached a low point in the year, 6.39 days; The daily production and marketing rate of staple fiber was more than 40%, up 21.59% from the previous day. Considering the low stock of downstream raw materials, the factory is not too worried about the situation that no one buys goods at the terminal for the time being. At present, the staple fiber manufacturer has controllable inventory and little pressure on spot sales, so the price is supported.

It is necessary to continuously observe the manufacturer's dynamics

This wave of rising short fiber market is almost away from the cost side, which has changed the situation of not going out of the independent market in the past. We believe that the most direct influencing factor may be the relatively stable operating rate in the downstream. Although July August is the traditional slack season of the textile industry, the market operating rate supported by rigid demand is relatively stable compared with previous years. However, judging from the trend of operating rate of dyeing plants, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang last week was 78%, 12 percentage points lower than the peak from March to April, showing a certain seasonal decline.

From the perspective of the market, the contract price of staple fiber 2408 has experienced about a week of fluctuations since June 26, and continued to break and rise after closing at a high of 7800 yuan/ton on July 3. We are still cautious about the subsequent upward drive, mainly because of the following two reasons:

First, after the cost price rises rapidly in the short term, the downstream will inevitably resist the high priced raw materials. Although the prices of upstream filaments and staple fibers have increased significantly, the downward transmission is relatively weak. Although the texturing has kept pace with the increase, the link of buying now and doing now is still in a loss state, and the rise of grey cloth becomes more difficult. According to the processing cost data, pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn (20560, 25.00, 0.12%) has been significantly squeezed after the price increase of staple fiber and filament. For the downstream, it takes more time to digest the increase of the upstream, which also indicates that the downward transmission of price is still hindered from the yarn link. At present, some downstream areas have seen a slight decline in the level of construction, or drag down the growth of the staple fiber market. In addition, if the downward transmission of price is blocked, the staple fiber manufacturers still need to reduce production in the future in order to maintain the price profit. In the future, they need to continue to observe the dynamics of the manufacturers.

Second, the discourse power of staple fiber in polyester chain is not large enough to squeeze upstream profits in a large range. When downward squeeze profits are under pressure, the space for upward competition for profits is also limited. At this time, staple fiber will be in a dilemma. However, at present, the decline in the operating rate of downstream texturing weaving is temporarily limited. As of July 4, the operating rate of texturing weaving was 89%, and the operating rate of weaving was 77%, still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. If we want to analyze the reason why the book profit loss of buying now and doing now is limited while the downstream operating rate declines, we believe that on the one hand, the manufacturer may judge that the future market will rise; On the other hand, the workers need the factory to start work to maintain their living, and the factory cannot reduce the load significantly.

After the short-term rapid rise of staple fiber futures price and profit expansion, the market's expectation of driving its further strength has also declined to a certain extent. Therefore, under the multi factor game, staple fiber prices are expected to be mainly high. At present, the operating rate of the downstream field has declined, which may drag down the growth of the staple fiber market in the future. As for whether the polyester plant will compete for profits upstream or further squeeze downstream, it is still necessary to continue to observe and wait.