China Cotton Association: The Area Of Cotton Planting Intention In China Will Decline By 3.7% This Year

In February 2023, the China Cotton Association conducted the second survey of cotton planting intentions in 2023 on 1975 designated farmers in 10 cotton producing provinces, regions and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. The survey results show that the intended cotton planting area in 2023 will further decline compared with the first survey. In this survey, the intended area of cotton planting nationwide was 42119600 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous period. Among them, the area of cotton planting intention in Xinjiang is relatively stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, which is basically the same as the previous period; The enthusiasm of cotton farmers in the inland cotton regions continues to decline due to the large year-on-year drop in the selling price in 2022, the increase in cotton planting costs, the significant year-on-year decrease in cotton revenue, and the lack of subsidies compared with Xinjiang cotton regions. The area of cotton planting intention in the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River basin decreased by 17.8% and 30.3%, respectively, 6.6 and 23.1 percentage points higher than that in the previous period.

Among the surveyed cotton farmers, 15.7% of them have no clear intention of planting cotton; The proportion was the largest, 66.1%, which was the same as that of last year; 15.0% planned to reduce cotton planting area; 3.2% are prepared to increase.

In this survey, the area of cotton planting intention in Xinjiang cotton region in 2023 is 37684200 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, basically equal to the previous period. Among the surveyed households, 94% had the same area as last year, 2.1% planned to reduce the area, and 1.2% planned to increase the area; At present, 2.7% are still hovering. According to the survey of China Cotton Association, the average cotton planting income in Xinjiang will be only 58.4 yuan per mu (excluding the target price subsidy) in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 97.1%. The main reasons for the cotton planting area to remain basically stable are: first, the stable cotton target price policy can guarantee the cotton planting income; Second, cotton planting is more mechanized than other crops, reducing labor costs. The decrease in cotton planting intention in some regions is mainly due to the increase in water costs due to the reduction of local water resources and the increase in water prices, and the reduction of cotton planting in some non cotton suitable regions. The main reason for the hesitation of planting intention is that the amount of cotton subsidies has not been appropriated in 2022, the new round of target price policy in 2023 has not yet been announced, the cotton farmers have no idea and the planting intention is not clear.

The declining trend of the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin continues to expand. According to this survey, the cotton planting area in 2023 will be 1749700 mu, a year-on-year decline of 30.3%, 23.1 percentage points more than the previous period. Affected by dry and hot weather and falling selling price, the average cotton planting income in 2022 is only 68.1 yuan per mu, down 81.2% year on year. In the Yangtze River basin, 30% of farmers still linger and wait; Those who planned to reduce the area accounted for 24% of the total survey households, while those who planned to increase the area accounted for only 3% of the total survey households, which was 42.9% the same as that of last year.

The area of cotton planting intention in the Yellow River basin also continued to decline, but the decline was relatively small. The survey results show that the area of cotton planting intention in 2023 will be 2419800 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, 6.6 percentage points more than the previous period. In 2022, the drought in the Yellow River basin will last for a short time and recover well in the later period. The average cotton planting income will be 560.6 yuan per mu, a year-on-year decrease of 50.9%. Among the surveyed households in the basin, 22.6% planned to reduce the area, 5.7% planned to increase the area, and 55.7% planned to maintain the same area as last year; 16.0% of survey households are still hovering.