How Big Will China'S Cotton Import Volume Be In 2020 / 21?

 

 

According to the latest USDA report, China's total cotton imports in 2020 / 21 will be about 2.722 million tons (from August 2020 to July 2021, slightly different from China's cotton year); China Cotton Association predicts that China's total cotton imports will be about 3 million tons in 2020 / 21 (only 1.6 million tons in 2019 / 20). According to the feedback from several international cotton merchants and large and medium-sized import enterprises, domestic buyers' inquiry and purchase of Port Bonded cotton and spot shipment of foreign cotton in July and August were still relatively positive, while the transactions of American cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton were slightly better than expected. Therefore, it is estimated that the total import and export volume of China's cotton in 2020 / 21 is expected to be between 2.9-3 million tons, and it is unlikely to exceed 3 million tons.

 

1、 Since July 21, the import quota of 700000 tons of sliding standard tax cotton has been issued successively, and a few cotton textile mills have placed actual orders for purchase (there is a phenomenon of "overdraft" of sliding standard tax quota in advance);

 

2、 Since the end of July, the domestic cotton period has risen sharply, while ice's main contract has continued to consolidate at 88-91 cents / pound. Under the 1% tariff and sliding standard tax, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been enlarged, and the competitiveness of foreign cotton has become stronger, which is conducive to cotton import;

 

Third, affected by severe rainstorm, typhoon and epidemic situation, the transportation of cotton and cotton yarn, production and sales of cotton yarn are affected by stages. Not only can the high count yarn of 60s and above receive and arrange orders smoothly, but also the demand of OE yarn and low count ring spinning has also hit the bottom and rebounded, and the consumption of low quality and low grade cotton increases;

 

4、 In July and August, the RMB exchange rate rose slightly or was basically stable, which was conducive to the import of cotton and cotton yarn. After the monthly depreciation in June, the spot exchange rate of RMB against US dollar rose slightly by 0.08% (52 basis points) in July; On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to set the tone and put forward that the RMB exchange rate should be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.