Shanghai'S First Round Of Centralized Land Supply Tests The Ability Of Real Estate Enterprises To Invest And Expand

On June 25, the first round of centralized land supply in Shanghai, which lasted six days, came to an end. From June 18, June 21 to June 25, 31 homesteads were sold in Shanghai, with a total transaction price of 77.38 billion yuan. In addition, 25 pieces of land for resettlement or rental housing were transferred on June 18, with a total transaction price of about 14.31 billion yuan.

It can be said that there are waves under calm. On June 25, on the last day of Shanghai's first centralized land supply, country garden won Baoshan and Minhang two homesteads with 7.057 billion yuan. In addition, the Nanxiang plot won by 2.457 billion yuan on June 24, country garden invested 9.5 billion yuan this time. It is understood that the team participating in the bidding is probably the Shanghai area investment and development team of Country Garden Shanghai Suzhou company.

Fengshui turns. When people in the industry think that country garden is about to fade out of the Shanghai market, the real estate enterprise borrowed Shanghai for the first time to concentrate on land supply, and then killed the Shanghai market which had been separated for two years.

There are a lot to see in Shanghai this time. For example: with Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta to form a staggered peak, which is conducive to the allocation of funds for real estate enterprises; The rule of earth beating becomes the biggest focus; Baoshan Meiluo homestead was the most involved in the auction of real estate enterprises. 18 real estate enterprises including Shimao participated in the auction and were finally captured by poly; Poly, country garden and Jingdong Union are the major investors in Shanghai.

"All the land in Shanghai is good." The marketing director of a top 20 real estate enterprise told the 21st century economic reporter that the lot and the conditions for participating in the auction are very friendly to most of the real estate enterprises“ The price is locked. The procedures are rather complicated and the price is not expensive. " The real estate enterprise said.

Shanghai local shooting rules have obvious advantages

Two years later, country garden, which had experienced regional adjustment and division, returned to Shanghai and won three suburban homesteads. According to the calculation of the development cycle of real estate enterprises and the degree of market control in Shanghai, it will take about 10-11 months of development cycle, and it will probably enter the market in the first half of next year. The last project of country garden in Shanghai was the Maqiao project in Minhang, which was won in May 2019 and sold out for a long time“ If you don't take the land, the Shanghai investment and development team of country garden will soon be dissolved. " A person familiar with the matter said that for the success of the increase in Shanghai plot, Country Garden Shanghai Su company employees are very happy.

According to the people familiar with the matter, Country Garden Investment and development team generally estimates that the minimum profit margin of land is 8%. According to the real estate linkage price given by Shanghai, the profit margin of the three pieces of land taken by country garden is about 9% - 11%. Of course, Shanghai this batch of land transaction floor price and real estate linkage price, the price difference is between 40% - 50%, and after cutting the cost, the profit margin can mostly reach 9% - 10%.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate market, believes that the three plots of land are located in the suburbs, and the scale is in line with the high turnover mode of country garden. He thought that country garden had seized the opportunity to enter the Shanghai market again. First of all, Shanghai's real estate linkage mechanism has left enough profit space for real estate enterprises, and qualified real estate enterprises want to come in and have a look; Secondly, due to various reasons, many heavyweight players in the market, such as Vanke, China Resources, Zhonghai, rongchuang and Rongxin, did not appear in the local auction market this time. If other real estate enterprises do not take this opportunity to acquire land, it will be a bit of a miss.

Many people in the industry believe that the land auction rules formulated by Shanghai for centralized land supply can be used as a template for other cities to copy. Although this remark is a bit of a joke, but the specific analysis shows that the local shooting rules of Shanghai still have the following obvious advantages: the combination of bidding and listing, capital penetration, and so on; From the perspective of the hot and cold degree of the local photos, Shanghai set up various measures to control the mood of the scene very well; Last year, after the Shanghai land market severely punished the "Besieged bid", the vest company was also blocked out of the local auction market, and the local auction chaos no longer appeared. In fact, the "one-time quotation link" originated from Suzhou local auction. However, Suzhou local auction did not stop the vest company at that time, resulting in 40 Vest Companies of a real estate enterprise appearing on the site of local auction.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that to the "one-time quotation link", it is time to test the market valuation and courage of real estate enterprises. He believes that if the full score is 10, the psychological evaluation of technology may account for six to seven points, and luck for three to four points“ This is certainly very demanding for the measurement technology of the investment and Development Department of real estate enterprises. Real estate companies can not blindly quote, but also need a bit of luck to guess the average price. "

According to the land auction rules, Lu Wenxi calculated the gap between the end price and the highest price. In fact, there is a hub between the two prices, and most developers who obtain the land price fluctuate up and down by no more than 0.5%. In other words, in the one-time quotation, the closer the real estate enterprise quotation is to the central level, the higher the probability of acquiring the land.

"For hot spots, you should report 0.0% higher at the central level, but lower than that at the central level." Lu Wenxi believes that this is not only a test of the calculation ability of investment and development departments, but also a test of their on-the-spot performance level. For the same auction of real estate enterprises, of course, the mentality is important, but hand speed is also to fight. For example, if a real estate company quotes first, it will take the first chance. If the price quoted by another company is the same, the one that quoted the price first still has the opportunity to modify it“ We should be quick and have strong calculation ability. "

Small and medium-sized real estate enterprises take more land in the suburbs

In fact, there are more attractions in Shanghai this time. Country garden, excellence and other real estate enterprises returned to the Shanghai market. On June 24, country garden took a piece of land in Nanxiang. The company quoted 2.456.7 million yuan in one-time quotation, which was 0 yuan lower than the average price. The premium rate was 9.47%, and the floor price was 31199 yuan / square meter. Compared with the Nanxiang plot taken by Rongxin last year, the location of this plot is more partial, and the unit price is about 7000 yuan / m2 cheaper. On the last day, country garden continued to work hard to take the homestead of Baoshan and Minhang.

In this round of centralized land supply, Jindi and country garden took three plots, which were the biggest winners; Jindi has invested nearly 6.9 billion yuan in Shanghai this time. On June 18, the Lingshi community plot taken by poly of 10.513 billion became the highest land transaction price of the land; Longhu, Xuhui, Lvcheng and other well-known real estate enterprises have also actively signed up for a number of plots, but they eventually accompany the running.

"Shanghai has a high level of management, equal opportunities and fairness." Lu Wenxi believes that different from other hot cities, Shanghai is more friendly to small and medium-sized real estate enterprises.

Although the well-known real estate enterprises are highly concentrated in Shanghai, Shanghai has given tickets to small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in recent days. For example, excellence, Daming city and Guangming real estate have almost disappeared in Shanghai's land transfer open market in recent years. This time, there are basically gains. Small and medium-sized real estate enterprises take more land in suburban areas, which is also related to the land price in Shanghai to some extent. For example, on June 21, Daming city won the 29-02 block of Zhuangxing town in Fengxian District with 1.259 billion yuan. The floor price of the plot is 12751 yuan / m2, and the premium rate is 8.99%. The linkage price of surrounding real estate disclosed in the land transfer announcement is 30000 yuan / m2. Lu Wenxi pointed out that this allows developers to know the future price, and it is also convenient for real estate enterprises to calculate the cost; At the same time, it also leaves a certain profit space for developers, hoping that the developers can make good profit space and make good products.

From the price of this piece of land taken by Daming City, it can be said that it is "picking up leaks". Similarly, on June 21, pioneer won the Songjiang plot with 2.135 billion yuan, and the total price was not high.

Looking back at the centralized land supply situation in other cities before, there is no lack of large housing enterprises, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises taking the lead, such as rongchuang, poly, China Resources, Rongxin China, Longhu, and zhaoshang Shekou.