Rising Land Price In Second Tier Cities For Underground Small And Medium-Sized Real Estate Enterprises

On June 3, Zhengzhou and Hefei started the first centralized land supply at the same time.

Judging from the first day's "war situation", the adsorption capacity of the two places is not inferior to that of many hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta. On the first day, Zhengzhou sold 49 pieces of land and collected 41.421 billion yuan. Although most of the plots in Zhengzhou were sold at zero premium, 23 real estate enterprises signed up for the three plots of beilonghu. Finally, Jinmao, Vanke and poly won the bid with fuse prices, and the three plots of land gained a total of 7.067 billion yuan.

Hefei also concentrated its firepower on the first day: 18 pieces of land were sold on the first day, and 14 pieces of land were sold for more than 16 billion yuan. According to the results of the land auction, the premium rate of many plots in Hefei is close to 30%, including Zhongjun, zhongzhongliang, Jiayuan and other small and medium-sized real estate enterprises.

Zhengzhou and Hefei adjusted the price limit rules and auction mechanism according to local conditions. Due to the current development mode of old transformation, most of the land in Zhengzhou is "directional", and there are few open auction sites, so the heat is very high; On the basis of housing price restriction, Hefei has adjusted the bidding mode, self-sustaining ratio, pre-sale conditions and price limit conditions, and has adopted the rule of "the higher price gets + bidding for construction + lottery" to limit the maximum proportion of rental construction. According to the auction results, 50% of the 12 residential land plots have a premium rate of more than 29%, and 8 plots have reached the top of the lottery.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate market, pointed out that Zhengzhou is a typical representative of the second tier cities, and Hefei is also a key city in the Yangtze River Delta. A period ago, house prices rose sharply. Therefore, the two cities must have relatively strong adsorption capacity of soil auction, and real estate enterprises will spare no effort to acquire land.

Matthew effect: capital frenzy

Kangqiao real estate, a local real estate enterprise in Zhengzhou, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that as a regional real estate enterprise, it is inevitable for Kangqiao to acquire land in Zhengzhou. However, it is a little surprised at the attraction of Zhengzhou market to see so many foreign real estate enterprises want to enter this market.

Plot 9 of Economic Development Zone, No. 10 and No. 11 of beilonghu were respectively taken over by Jinmao, Vanke and poly. However, due to the land price restriction, the floor price of the plot taken by Zhonghai in the same plate was not updated by 25000 yuan / m2.

From these three popular plots, we can see that many well-known real estate enterprises have settled in beilonghu plate, and house price reshuffle is imminent. Zhengzhou industry insiders pointed out that the centralized land supply is becoming Schrodinger's cat, and no one knows what will happen.

21st century economic reporter learned from several core sources that a number of well-known real estate enterprises have prepared more than 10 Vest Companies to acquire land. From the deposit, we can see the popularity of the local auction: there are 79 real estate enterprises participating in the auction in Jingkai No.9, and the deposit is about 78 billion yuan; In beilonghu No.10, 51 real estate enterprises participated in the bidding, with a deposit of 33 billion yuan; in beilonghu No.11, 60 real estate enterprises participated in the bidding, with a deposit of 41.2 billion yuan. There are nearly 200 real estate enterprises in the three plots, with more than 150 billion deposits.

This time, the two second tier cities have changed the rules of land auction, and the ceiling of house prices in some areas has been raised. For example, in Zhengzhou, the price of finished residential buildings in Beilong lake was limited to 32000 yuan / square meter. For the three pieces of land sold this time, the price of rough products was limited to 37300 yuan / square meter, the price of decoration was limited to 5600 yuan / square meter, and the price of finished housing was limited to 42000 yuan / square meter. In other words, the price ceiling of Beilong lake has been raised by 10000 yuan / m2. This is also the main reason why real estate companies are flocking to it.

Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, analyzed and pointed out that Zhengzhou's overall soil photography results were within expectations. First of all, the thermal differentiation of land parcel is a problem in most cities when land supply is concentrated, so is Zhengzhou; Secondly, the fierce competition of local auction is mainly concentrated in Beilong Lake area, which is the strongest supporting force of housing volume and price in Zhengzhou; On the whole, Zhengzhou's overall inventory is still large. If the land is taken in non core areas, it will still face the risk of deionization. Therefore, most of the land plots are taken with zero premium; In addition, we can't simply say that the competitiveness of local real estate enterprises is not strong. From the real estate sales ranking from January to may in 2021, Kangqiao, Zhengshang and Yongwei are in the top three, so the local real estate enterprises still have strong strength. Considering that the local real estate enterprises have sufficient land reserves in Zhengzhou, it is reasonable to avoid high premium land.

As Lu Wenxi said, the more centralized land supply, the more difficult it will be. Basically, there are two forms of enterprises monopolizing the local auction market: one is the leading real estate enterprises with an annual sales volume of more than 200 billion yuan, as well as state-owned and central enterprises; The other is the eastern coastal areas, especially the local real estate enterprises in East China. The comprehensive strength of state-owned enterprises is relatively strong, and the financing cost is low. In addition, Vanke China Resources is definitely actively acquiring land. These two families have been banned from taking land in Shanghai for the past two years. At least now, they can't enter the Shanghai market in the short term. "They will choose to make up for the internal loss and external compensation. If you don't take the land in Shanghai, the prepared money must be spread to other key cities, otherwise, the loss will be too large." Lu Wenxi said that centralized land supply for enterprises, under the pressure of funds, can only concentrate limited funds on good plots. If this goes on, the Matthew effect will soon appear.

Taking Hefei market as an example, small and medium-sized real estate enterprises such as Zhongliang, Jiayuan and Zhongjun have gained profits, with a premium rate of 25% - 28%.

Lu Wenxi believes that this is the market trend. In the future, enterprises with the strength to do high-end products will have more profit margins, and small real estate enterprises will basically do downstream products. But it can't be said that small real estate enterprises do not have the opportunity, they can jointly take land, or take some more alternative land. In addition, there are differences in the sustainability of real estate enterprises' funds. In the first half of the year, many enterprises hardly took land, such as Yuzhou. On the contrary, the investment and development departments of real estate enterprises have relatively sufficient funds, but their capital sustainability will be weaker.

Small and medium sized real estate enterprises

On the first day of centralized land supply in Zhengzhou, Kangqiao real estate, a local real estate enterprise, successfully won two pieces of land, both of which were completed at the bottom price. In addition, Zhengzhou local real estate enterprises Lvdu and Changjian also participated in the first day of local auction. However, due to the limited funds on hand, they did not get a piece of land. Industry insiders pointed out that perhaps with the Zhengzhou market has been oversupply related. For small and medium-sized real estate enterprises, the game rules of Zhengzhou real estate have been changing.

Not only that, Zhengzhou's market is also changing in May. According to statistics, in May, the turnover of new houses in Zhengzhou decreased by 20% year-on-year and month on month.

Hefei real estate market is also facing a decline in second-hand housing transactions, but compared with Zhengzhou, more small and medium-sized real estate enterprises want to enter the Hefei market. Among the 14 pieces of land sold in Hefei on the first day, 12 pieces of land related to houses were taken by 12 different real estate enterprises, including Jiayuan, Xuhui, Tonghe, jiazhaoye, Hefei urban construction, Bangtai, Wenyi, Zhongjun, Zhongliang, Lianfa, Xiamen Jianfa and Anhui land. Among them, Zhongjun entered Hefei for the first time, Jianfa, Lianfa and Zhidi settled in Binhu.

As song Weihong pointed out, the local auction competition in Hefei is more fierce, the main reasons are as follows: first, after nearly two years of depopulation in Hefei, the overall inventory of each region is not high, and the real estate enterprises urgently need to supplement the land reserve. Second, although all residential plots have reached the maximum price limit, there is still a certain profit margin from the perspective of price and land price difference, which is basically richer than that of core cities such as southern Jiangsu and Northern Zhejiang. Third, the urban fundamentals of Hefei are relatively good. In recent years, with the continuous introduction and upgrading of industries, the population has also continued to flow in, effectively supporting the real estate market. Fourth, from the perspective of market rotation, the land heat in the past two years is mainly concentrated in the southern Jiangsu and Northern Zhejiang regions of the Yangtze River Delta. At present, there is a trend of transmission to the northern Jiangsu and surrounding areas. This is the case in Hefei. There are local real estate enterprises, national real estate enterprises, and newly entered Hefei real estate enterprises, such as Jianfa.