It Is Not An Individual Case That The Live Delivery Of Goods Dropped From The Altar

MCN enters the cooling off period

2019 is the first year of live e-commerce, and then quickly enters the carnival period, becoming the standard configuration of e-commerce in the new era. The logic of "content is marketing, flow is channel" seems to be constantly impacting traditional commerce.

In the post epidemic era, consumption recovery depends on live broadcasting, poverty alleviation and helping farmers rely on live broadcasting, and star entrepreneurs reduce dimension and live broadcast with goods to become online celebrities.

Live delivery of goods subverts people's concept of consumption. In March 2020, Luo Yonghao signed a contract to do live broadcasting at the price of 60 million yuan, and paid off 400 million yuan in less than a year; Weiya's live broadcast sales volume was 6.7 billion yuan a week before the pre-sale of double 11 (October 19-october 25), and Li Jiaqi also won 6.1 billion yuan. The Gmv of the two men made countless listed companies blush.

In 2019, the market size of MCN will rapidly exceed 10 billion. By the end of December 2019, the number of MCN institutions in China has exceeded 100000. MCN organization is the content incubator and the accelerator of online red belt goods.

After the double 11, the Chinese Consumer Association named Wang Han and Li Xueqin, and Xinba carried the bird's nest "overturned", and the live e-commerce entered a period of strong supervision. After that, Ruhan holding, MCN's "first share of online Red e-commerce", applied for delisting and privatization one and a half years after landing on NASDAQ.

After the carnival, whether the outlet of the net red belt goods is still there, where will the anchor and MCN organization go?

Live delivery from the altar

If Han delisted, there were signs from the first day of listing.

On April 3, 2019, Ruhan became the first MCN institution to be listed in the United States. But its IPO first day burst, plummeting 37%. Wang Sicong sharp comments: "the realization of online Red KOL is not the problem, but such as Han this company."

The predecessor of Ruhan is libelin of Taobao store. Its business model is e-commerce self support + promotion integration, and promotes its e-commerce business by cultivating KOL. Ruhan has always wanted to transform into "online celebrity + Incubator + supply chain", but from the perspective of its financial report, the road of its online celebrity incubation is not smooth.

According to its financial report, the revenue growth of Ruhan has slowed down significantly for two consecutive years (fiscal year 2018-2020), with year-on-year growth of 15% and 19% respectively.

What's worse, such as increasing income but not increasing profit, losing money for four consecutive years, and increasing expenses for sales and incubation of KOL. Ruhan also said in the risk factors column: "there are many uncertainties in the cultivation of KOL, including their personal style, charm, attitude and professionalism. The acceptance of our KOL by social media users is also beyond our control. "

Zhang Dayi is the only wanghong that can be named by Ruhan, whose Gmv accounts for 50.8%, 52.4% and 53.5% of Ruhan's Gmv in the three fiscal years of 2017-2019, which can be said to be one person holding up half of Ruhan's Gmv.

According to Zhang Dayi's contract, she gets 49% of her net profit and the remaining 51% goes to Ruhan. Meanwhile, Zhang Dayi owns a 15% stake in Ruhan.

When the scandal between Zhang Dayi and Jiang Fan, President of tmall, was revealed, the company's stock price and market value were also affected by this. The stock price once fell by nearly 10%, and the market value evaporated by 22 million US dollars overnight. The content of MCN is human centered, the reputation of the host is damaged, and the commercial premium of its own IP is also reduced.

Not only Ruhan, but also the online Red concept stocks with trading limits in A-shares in the first half of this year, such as Saturday, new culture and sunrise, have also fallen from the altar.

Zhang Xin, CEO of short fish, said that 95% of the tens of thousands of MCNS could not earn money. Li Hao, CEO of Martian culture, and Xu Yang, CEO of microbroadeasy, also remind enterprises that they want to bring goods live. Not only is there a shortage of 40 million professional talents, but most short video online celebrities are unable to carry goods live.

No one can tell how long Zhang Dayi can be angry.

MCN in transition

In 2020, the turnover of tmall's 11 day carnival season will be fixed at 498.2 billion yuan, and the turnover of shuoyin Shuang 11 pet powder festival will reach 18.7 billion yuan, and the Gmv of fast e-commerce will increase a thousand times in two years.

Ten days later, the official website of the State Administration of radio and television issued the notice on strengthening the management of live broadcast of online show and live broadcast of e-commerce, requiring that the focus should be placed on the management of live broadcasting room, head anchor and account number, live broadcast with high traffic or high transaction volume, and strengthen the compliance inspection. At the same time, the Consumer Association of China released the analysis report of public opinion on consumer rights protection in "double 11". Data fraud, poor quality, follow-up customer service can not keep up with, and negative news of the live delivery industry is frequent.

Live broadcast with goods can carry the boat, but also can capsize the boat. It is not a long-term way for MCN organizations to only rely on incubating online celebrities and receiving advertisements.

Weiya, the top player in the live broadcasting industry, and Qianxun, the company behind it, realized the dependence of MCN on the head of Netcom earlier and began to transform into a supply chain.

Qian Xun CEO Ollie said: I think the live broadcast has just started. 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 are all regarded as "pre-season games". Everyone has just finished practice, and all the results are not achievements. The game has just begun and has just entered the first half.

In the early stage, players will regard live broadcast as an accelerator of content marketing and the process of traffic realization, but in the long run, MCN can't stop there.

Qianxun's anchors, from stars to microblog celebrities to beauty bloggers, have more diversity and camp than Han's. In addition to live e-commerce, Qianxun is a huge supply chain platform. According to media reports, Qianxun has set up a super SKU supply chain base covering more than ten thousand goods in different categories.

Qianxun's plan is to build its supply chain into a full category supermarket like Wal Mart. One end of the chain is connected with the anchor to provide selection for it. In the early stage, it will be opened to its internal anchor. When it matures, it will be open to all Taobao platform anchor. On the other end, it will be connected with businesses, charging service fee + commission.

This year, IMS, the first red man economy stock listed on A-share market, is practicing another path of MCN. Tianxiaxiu is positioned as a fan economy big data platform, which uses the advantages of social communication big data to match the most appropriate content and celebrity resources with consumers more accurately.

In short, tianxiaxiu not only cultivates wanghong, but also analyzes wanghong through big data to help wanghongqifan.

Tianxiaxiu's main revenue comes from its new media marketing customer agency service, that is, weiq, its new media advertising platform, which helps Internet Celebrities connect with brand companies. In 2019, the total revenue of tianxiaxiu is 1.71 billion yuan, accounting for 86.36% of the total revenue.

Compared with the traditional MCN organization, the mode of "tianxiaxiu to B" has higher profit margin and lower risk. According to the financial report, in the first half of 2020, the company realized a total operating revenue of 1.320 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.01%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profit and loss was 151 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60%.

Li Meng, founder of tianxiaxiu, said in an open letter to investors that "disintermediation and decentralization are the essence of business's constant pursuit of efficiency and profit".

According to the report released by AI media consulting, there are more than 700 million fans in China. In 2019, the total scale of China's live e-commerce market is 433.8 billion yuan, which is expected to grow to 961 billion yuan by 2020. In the future, if we activate these 700 million fans and turn them into consumers, the market will continue to expand.

The live game with goods has just begun.