Self Reliance: Why Does Zheng Cotton Futures Rebound?

乘着国庆长假的东风，10月8、9日郑期主力合约背靠12000强劲反弹（9月底CF2001盘中低点11970），连破12200、12300等整数关口，令空头、套保盘有些“丈二和尚摸不着头脑”，在2019/20年度新棉大量加工上市、棉花调控政策杳无音信及中美第13轮贸易磋商“前途未卜”、国内棉花消费下降并未明显止跌的大背景下，郑期却率先发力上涨，各合约一片飘红；但奇怪的是从近两日成交量、持仓量仍比较低来看，郑期上涨并未刺激棉花加工企业、棉花贸易商及投资机构、投机商等大力跟进，缺乏实体配合；再叠加棉花供给充足、外围市场偏空等因素，因此笔者判断郑期大幅反弹乃至反转的希望不大，12500、12800等关口突破还需2019/20年度收储、央行降准甚至降息、外围大宗商品期货大涨及中美贸易谈判取得阶段性进展（签署部分协议）等等利好支撑，否则不非除主力再破12000，创三 Year and a half new low.

Why did the rebounding trend of Zheng Zheng without a sign rebound? Some institutions and cotton companies are still speculating on the "hype" of real estate (credit and policy pressure on the real estate market). The stock market has fallen below 3000 points, and it has been difficult to rebound. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity flowing into the commodity futures market has been released, and agricultural products have become the leader of the rise. If judging from volume and position, this judgment is not unreasonable, but it is more prudent to do more power and speculative capital. However, the author believes that there are still several factors to support Zheng's highly limited rebound.

First, during the 10.1 national day, the international market of soybeans, corn and other futures rose sharply (ICE futures rose from 59.58 to 61.80), triggering a rise in prices of agricultural products after the holidays, and cotton was only rising passively.

The two is a large number of hedging plates entering the market, pulling up the vacant bill, resulting in the rapid rise of the contracts, but the bottom is not enough. In 2019/20, not only cotton traders "two pronged" - on the one hand, vigorously purchasing and booking warehouse cotton (mainly machine picked cotton); on the other hand, more than 70% of the resources to achieve hedging, and cotton ginning plants and cotton processing enterprises will also "hedging" as the most important part of the risk control, the proportion of hedging has increased significantly (for some cotton enterprises, 2018/19 does not cover or cover a low proportion of lessons deep).

The three is the thirteenth round of trade consultation between China and the United States after the national day. Although differences and contradictions are still greater, consultations that are able to sit down, equality and mutual respect are more favorable than the "escalation" and "tariff" to the global economy and the two countries' economies.

Four is about the 2019/20 North Xinjiang and Akesu part cotton area seed cotton per unit yield decline judgment unceasingly ferment, or causes Xinjiang cotton total production to glide. From late August to early September, some cotton areas such as Akesu were exposed to rainy, cold and light weather for about half a month. The boll weight, boll number, quality and marketing period of cotton were affected to varying degrees; and the low precipitation and accumulated temperature in Northern Xinjiang also restricted cotton growth, flowering, boll opening (top peach loss) and superimposed hail weather on yield reduction and harvest.