2019 Polyester Filament Production And Marketing Continued Pulse Trend Later Market Forecast

The polyester filament market will be suppressed first and then raised in August. In the first half of the month, the dual raw materials were running weak, the cost side support was insufficient, the downstream weaving enterprises were not confident enough, and they just needed to purchase. Mid month trade friction releases good news to boost market sentiment, coupled with PTA pulling up, the polyester market is on the rise, and downstream buying up sentiment is driving up the market. However, the market anxiety is still prominent, and there is no substantial improvement in the terminal orders. Therefore, there is a downward trend in the market after a short period of maintenance.

At present, the main sticking point of the downward trend of the market price is slow demand, which is embodied in the production and marketing of polyester. Since 2018, polyester filament production and marketing has shown a trend of impulse, and this trend has continued in 2019.

Figure 12018-2019 polyester filament production and marketing trend

Source: lung Chung

From August to the beginning, the production and sales remained at 3-4 at the beginning of the month, and the effect of continuous sales promotion was not good. The preferential treatment of enterprises was expanded, and the lower reaches were bought. In August 7th, production and sales were slightly warmer. The average daily production and sales were near 200%, and the high-end production and sales were 800%. Since then, sales and sales declined, and the market remained at 5-8. Mid month by external news surface lift, polyester production and sales hot, morning production and sales in the vicinity of 300%, production and sales continued to rise in the afternoon, the average daily production and sales in 400%-500%, individual high-end 1000% nearby. However, raw material PTA did not give support in time, PTA prices continued to explore, dragging down the market atmosphere of polyester, downstream weaving enterprises worried about warming up, procurement to maintain just demand, the second half of production and sales fell to 4-5 in the vicinity.

With the decline in production and marketing, polyester prices also showed a downward trend, thanks to the continuous decline of raw material PTA, so the profit level of polyester is acceptable, POY profit level is relatively high.

Fig. 22018-2019 comparison of mainstream price and profit of polyester filament yarn

Source: lung Chung

Close to the "golden nine silver ten", some businesses still have expectations for the peak demand season. In a comprehensive way, the cost side PTA has three installations planned for operation in the second half of the year, and plans to put into operation capacity of nearly 5 million tons. Among them, the new Feng Ming and Hengli (Dalian) plan has been put into operation in 9-10 months, and the supply pressure of PTA is relatively large. Recently, the pre maintenance equipment has been restarted, and the market is worried that the mood will intensify. The transaction will continue to explore. It is estimated that there will be no obvious good news in the PTA market in September or September, and the trend of the market will continue or be weak in September. Downstream, the field of terminal weaving industry started a small increase, but the overall construction rate is still at a low level, and foreign trade orders are reduced. In September, if the tax rate increased, export costs increased, orders still had a shrinking expectation. In view of the expected procurement of raw materials in the autumn and winter fabric procurement season, the polyester market is expected to run warmer in September, but the market is showing a trend of decline in late October and early October.