Can The Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Go Up Smoothly After Hot Production And Marketing?

After nearly a month of light production and marketing, the production and sale rate of PET staple factories improved in the two days of July 29th and 30. The market has frequently heard that more than 500% of the production and marketing rates have been relieved. However, at the same time, the raw material side has not released a noticeably optimistic signal, and the terminal orders have not improved substantially. However, the phenomenon of high temperature holiday has increased because of the lack of orders, so the rebound path of the direct spun polyester staple will also become hardship in the background of no obvious good signal.

As shown below, since the high point of 8650 yuan / ton started in July 2nd, it has fallen all the way, and has fallen by 1400 yuan / ton, or 16.18%.


Meanwhile, industry profits also shrank sharply. Especially in recent days, the market price has fallen below the cost line again, especially some low price goods, and the loss amount even exceeds 200 yuan / ton. Although the cash flow of polyester staple industry has experienced a loss in the past 8-9 months, the loss was mainly due to the sharp rise of PTA, which resulted in the downstream being unable to follow up, which is quite different from this year's market. Today, the PTA processing fee has been reduced from 2000 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton. The spot market has not been optimistic recently. The ethylene glycol market has been silent for half a year. Although the market has rebounded in recent years, the price range is relatively small, so the cost side is not strong enough. Against this background, the polyester staple fiber trend has exceeded the raw material and reached the lows in the early June.


However, the fast falling market really exceeded the imagination of downstream customers. Since the price of polyester staple fiber has been drastically reduced in July 29th, the downstream users began to carry out the bottom reading operation, and the shipment of the low price goods source obviously improved, and the stock of the staple fiber factory dropped sharply. The following picture shows that the stock of polyester staple fiber falls below 1 weeks, and because of low price and severe loss, some factories are reluctant to sell their products on the 30 day.


However, behind the hot sales, there is no significant improvement in the market fundamentals. So after a quick inventory, can the market price of polyester staple rebound?

At present, the bad market mainly comes from the fatigue of the terminal market. The continuous performance of terminal weaving orders is weak, leading to a backlog of stock in cotton spinning enterprises. There are more downtime phenomena in the industry under high temperature and humidity. In addition, according to the industry practice, the intermediaries and downstream environment replenishment time is roughly 7-15 days, indicating that the market is overdrawn again, and the follow-up market will be at least 10 days of time will be relatively dull, but also make the price rise to form a greater resistance.

However, as a cost driven one of the leading industries, the follow-up trend of raw materials is still the key to affecting the market. From the raw material point of view, the supply of ethylene glycol under long-term losses is gradually decreasing, and the industry has strong anticipation of stock, and the market price will have certain support. But PTA sees that the recent restart of the plant is mainly about the capacity of 4 million 500 thousand tons of large plants and the short stops at the end of July. In August, there are still 5 million 250 thousand tons of devices that are expected to be overhauled, and there is still a big uncertainty about whether a 2 million 200 thousand ton device will be overhauled. In addition, the polyester factory is under the pressure of loss, although the scale of production reduction has expanded. In August, there is also a new commissioning plan for 600 thousand tons of Tong Kun, and other long stop devices have a restart plan, so the support of polyester terminals to PTA is acceptable. PTA has relatively limited space to continue to decline after the processing fee has shrunk to 1000 yuan / ton. Especially at the end of the month, the sensitive side of the news is sensitive. Sino US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed's Conference on interest rates will become an important factor affecting the market.

So, in the short term, the short term market is short of market stalemate. The market of polyester staple is difficult to improve under the restriction of the terminal. However, in the context of no significant drop in the raw material market, the market price is basically "drop or drop", and the pressure of short fiber enterprises has also declined. Some enterprises have also expanded the scale of production again. In the short term, the market tends to be stable and strong. However, the medium and long term market will still suffer from the weakness of the terminal, and the low profit or the long-term situation of the industry.