In Depth Analysis: The Counter Attack Of PTA Import And Export In 2018

According to the technical calculation of PTA import and export data in previous years, the average monthly import volume is 40000 tons and the export volume is 50000 tons. This year's import and export volume has risen slightly.

Figure 1 Comparison of PTA imports from 2014 to 2018

Data source: Longzhong Information

In 2018, the import volume of PTA increased, especially in September, when the import volume of PTA reached 122400 tons. The main reason was still the sharp rise in the price of PTA in August, the import profit also went against the trend, and the situation of inversion was overcome. As a result, the import window was opened, and the quantity increased significantly, the main source of goods was Taiwan. However, after the domestic PTA price gradually declined, the import volume also returned to a flat. Under the situation of full self-sufficiency in China, with the increase of import data, PTA export volume has undoubtedly increased.

At present, the import volume from January to November 2018 reached 708200 tons. It is estimated that the theoretical import volume of PTA in 2018 will be about 768200 tons, an increase of 45.96% year-on-year. From January to November 2018, China's PTA export volume was 790000 tons. It is estimated that China's PTA export volume in 2018 will be about 850000 tons in theory, an increase of 62.46% year-on-year.

Table 1 Comparison of PTA imports by production and marketing countries in 2017-2018 (unit: 10000 tons)

Source: General Administration of Customs

The self-sufficiency rate of domestic PTA has been rising, and under the pattern of oversupply, China's import and export data has basically maintained a balanced level. In 2018, the number of PTAs imported by China from Taiwan and Kingma Free Trade Zone ranked first, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, China, Thailand and Japan.

Figure 2 PTA export by production and sales countries in 2018

Source: General Administration of Customs

Domestic PTA can be completely self-sufficient, and some goods are exported to other countries. Mainly Oman, the Russian Federation, Macao, India and other countries.

The import and export of PTA in 2018 can be described as a rare scene, especially the export volume has reached a historical high.

With the steady development of domestic devices and the continuous improvement of PTA supply and demand pattern, the possibility of the import and export data going against again in the future is also weak. Affected by the Sino US trade war, the domestic economic development began to be under pressure in the second half of 2018. In 2019, there was still greater pressure. The negotiation of the trade war also became the focus of attention. As the festival is approaching, the export situation of China's textile and clothing market is particularly critical. If the macro environment is not good, the growth rate of PTA will be restrained to a certain extent. In 2019, PTA and polyester will release new production capacity to varying degrees, and how to operate and develop the market will still be closely watched.