The Biggest Change In The Policy Of Dumping And Storage Is In India.

In July, the cotton market performance was advanced, and the core was the change of the policy of throwing and storing.

In the spot market, the 3128 index changed little, from 15918 to 15899, and the highest point at the beginning of the month. This may be due to some other factors, which are not in line with the market experience.

On the throw and storage market, the average paction price of Xinjiang cotton fell from 15025 (3128 to 16198) to 14690 (3128 to 15958), and the high point was 20 on the same day, with an average price of 15491 (3128 3128).

Zheng cotton market, from 15040 to 14695, the highest point in the month is 15690. of 19.

Because of the change of policy, we will have a great influence on the future supply and demand structure.

On the speculation of warehouse receipts, the loss is slower than expected, and continue to observe the impact of Friday's crash on warehouse receipts.

Because warehouse receipts relate to the structure and rationality of delivery cotton, the delivery price of zhengmian 0 9 contract is finally affected. This is calculated in detail from 19 to 21 days, and this comparison is still valid.

Global

On the table, the largest variable is in India, which was further confirmed in the previous day.

The next year's output in India has been greatly anticipated from the beginning of the month (6 million 300 thousand tons +) to 6 million tons at the end of the month. The global market is concerned about the impact of drought on output and quality in the United States. It is concerned about the impact of planting (including replanting) and excessive precipitation in India.

The price difference structure of Zheng cotton contract was revised on the 27 day because of the change of supply and demand.

This month, the price difference between Zheng cotton 09 and 01 was quite obvious, from 09 in the previous stage to 01 in the 01 rise, and then quickly dropped to the premium of 100.. It is pointed out that the difference between the regional supply and demand is the reason for the current contract price difference. However, this difference can only play a role in the very short term (not more than 1 months) of the new flower listing. Therefore, the difference between the two spreads is 100~200 reasonable, such as extending to 300 or more, which will face the pressure of regression.

The closing quotation is likely to be quite large due to the delay in storage. At present, the analysis is still too early. There are still some uncertain variables to be observed. The 18 day analysis is meaningless.

On the whole, the market is still not fully reflecting the impact of policy changes, and some variables of policy changes, such as the amount of Xinjiang cotton and so on, need further observation.

At present, both futures and spot are in the stage of finding new balance point, and we suggest waiting for market stability.

At present, the spot supply in the market comes from three aspects: the spot market.

2016/17's reserve cotton and futures warehouse receipts.

In comparison with the real-time quotations in July 31st, China cotton information network provides 3128B index price of 15900 yuan / ton, and the new cotton price of 3128B in reserve cotton is 14800 yuan / ton. Zheng cotton in the near future 709 contract closing price 14635 yuan, equivalent to 3128B Xinjiang cotton price 14835 yuan / ton.

It can be seen that at present, for the market, the price of warehouse receipts for cotton reserves and futures is equal at present. If the price of cotton futures continues to fall, the price advantage of warehouse receipts will be highlighted, which will accelerate the outflow of the market and further intensify the current conflict of warehouse receipts.

To sum up, zhengmian 709 contract is still in decline, but it should not be overlooked.

With the completion of the CotlookA month, the reserve price of the cotton auction will also decline, so the price support of the 709 contract warehouse cotton should also be reduced by 500 yuan / ton, so for the Zheng cotton 709 contract, the bottom interval of this decline will be 14000-14200 yuan / ton.

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