Capital Outflow, Through The Way Of "Import And Export"

China's economic data have always been questioned by the market.

Some commentaries have pointed out that because of the restrictions on capital outflow by the Central Bank of China, enterprises have begun to pfer funds to foreign countries by way of import and export.

The import and export data again deviated from the phenomenon. According to the data in February, imports from Hong Kong jumped 89% over the same period last year, while total imports fell 14% year-on-year.

Financial website Businessinsider also said that the data gap between Mainland China's imports from Hongkong and Hongkong's exports to mainland China is getting bigger and bigger. There must be some problems.

Andrew Collier, an independent Chinese analyst in Hongkong and former president of the Bank of China (USA), said that payments have risen sharply, and that the wide range of Chinese people in state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are using all feasible ways to increase.

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Bloomberg industry research economist Ou Le Ying and Chen Shiyuan said in a report.

The distortion of data caused by the flow is still a problem. The $880 million import volume to Hong Kong in February was unbelievable.

A few days ago, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) once said that the main reason for the serious capital outflow in China was not the exodus of foreign investors, but because of the depreciation of the renminbi, domestic enterprises chose to repay foreign debts in advance, thus leading to capital outflow.

The main reason for the outflow of funds is still RMB.

Worries.

Although the Chinese leadership once strongly stated that "the renminbi has no basis for depreciation", the Central Bank of China still wants to export with its devaluation.

The international private equity giant KKR said in its Research Report on Tuesday that the renminbi needs to depreciate to reduce China's debt burden and resist deflation, otherwise China may face a Japanese style recession since the 90 century.

The Mcvey team also believes that the fair value of the RMB is about 7 yuan at 1 US dollars, that is, the depreciation of the current exchange rate is about 7%.

"In extreme cases, the renminbi may fall to $1 to 7.5 yuan."

This means that the pressure of RMB depreciation is still relatively large in the future.