Analysts: The Failure Of Self Operated Sector Is The Biggest Reason For The Collapse Of Performance.

Although the period of the most rapid growth of the net profit of the brokerage industry has passed, the high performance in the first half of the year has laid the tone for the high profit growth of the securities industry throughout the whole year.

Li Juan, an analyst at CICC securities, believes that the failure of the self operated sector is the biggest reason for the slump in performance.

The profit and loss of brokerages in the rescue market is not reflected in the July performance. All securities companies do not do accounting treatment, and will not affect profits or net assets in 2015.

The future brokerage sector should pay attention to fluctuations in proprietary trading positions.

In July, a large number of retail investors left and the volume of trading fell.

The profits of 18 listed brokerages, which have disclosed their July performance, have dropped by 50%, and the biggest decline is the Societe Generale Securities, which has fallen by 73%.

Haitong Securities, Soochow securities, Western securities, Changjiang Securities, Guotai Junan down by more than 60%.

In this regard, Li Juan, an analyst at CICC securities, thinks that

The biggest reason for the collapse of performance.

In addition, the broker's bailout funds were not reflected in the July performance, and all brokerages did not deal with floating surplus / floating losses.

The future brokerage sector should pay attention to fluctuations in proprietary trading positions.

CICC commented that 18 listed brokerages achieved a total operating income of 17 billion 554 million yuan in July, a decrease of 44% in the ring ratio, a net profit of 7 billion 389 million yuan, a decrease of 50% in the annulus.

The factors contributing to the business performance of the coupon include: continuous trading volume, two balance, IPO suspension and proprietary business.

The analysis of the specific factors of CIC's business performance is as follows:

1., the volume of pactions continued to explore: in July, the average daily turnover of two cities was 30% lower than the historical high of 17375 billion yuan in June.

2. the two financial balance continued to be callback: in July, the ratio fell by 34.7% to 13387 billion yuan.

3. IPO issued a regulatory window to guide the suspension in July, and the amount of refinancing also dropped sharply from 54% to 81 billion 800 million yuan.

The 4. self business is the biggest drag: in July, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 14.67%, and the gem index fell 11.15%.

The biggest impact of the regulation of the bailout policy on the brokerage sector comes from investment restrictions on proprietary trading positions.

Taking into account the growth rate of net assets in July is far below the net profit in July (July net assets increased by 4 billion 666 million, net profit 7 billion 389 million yuan), CICC expects securities companies generally appear AFS floating losses.

In July, the top 21 brokerages invested 15% of their net assets in the bailout market.

CICC pointed out that, because the company did not disclose its earnings regularly, the current trend of the securities companies was temporarily unable to analyze the net value changes, not to deal with floating surplus or floating losses.

Therefore, before the certification company has clear guidance and information disclosure, besides the opportunity cost, the 15% equity part of the rescue fund can not be affected by the securities company.

That is to say, the bailout funds are not reflected in the July performance, and will not affect the 2015 profit or net assets.

Overall, CICC believes that although

The period of the most rapid growth of net profit has passed, but the high growth in the first half of the year has laid the tone for the high profit growth of the securities industry throughout the year.

The trend of the market in the second half of the year and the fluctuation of its proprietary position will be the focus of attention.