The Goal Of 13Th Five-Year Will Be To Build A Moderately Prosperous Society In An All-Round Way.

　　 In 13th Five-Year, the planning economic objectives were put on the agenda or between 6.5%-7%.

The Chinese Communist Party will convene in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. One of the main agendas of the conference is to study proposals for formulating the thirteenth five year plan for national economic and social development. Among them, " The 13th Five-year "How to determine the economic goals has attracted much attention.

In July 20th, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held that the "13th Five-Year" period is the decisive stage for building a well-off society in an all-round way. The 13th Five-Year plan must be closely focused on achieving this goal.

In accordance with the objectives set out in the past eighteen, a well-off society was built in 2020 to achieve GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents in 2010.

To achieve this goal, different experts have different conclusions. Some experts believe that the growth rate of GDP can not be less than 6.8% during the "13th Five-Year" period. Some experts believe that, considering the growth rate of 7% this year, 6% will be achieved in the next 5 years.

The reporter was informed that after the adoption of the above recommendations at the fifth plenary session, the "13th Five-Year plan" laid down on the basis of this proposal will be discussed at the two sessions next year and will be implemented after the adoption of the general assembly.

"13th Five-Year" planning economic growth controversy

The "13th Five-Year" period, from 2016 to 2020, is an important period for building a well-off society in an all-round way.

According to the 2010 estimates, annual income growth should reach 7% in ten years.

However, due to 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Economic growth Taking 9.3%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 7.4% respectively, taking into account the possibility of achieving 7% in 2015, using mathematical methods to estimate that the average annual economic growth rate in the next 5 years will reach 6.1% or so, the goal of doubling 2020 will be achieved in 2020 than in 2010.

Xu Lin, director of the development and Planning Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said at a meeting in February this year that from the perspective of the two "doubling" requirements proposed by the "Eighteen big" proposals, if the GDP growth rate is 7% in 2015, the average annual GDP growth rate in 13th Five-Year will reach 6.56%, that is, 6.5% left and right is the bottom line.

However, academia is still controversial.

Fan Ming Tai, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Liu Xiahui, director of the economic growth Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the economic growth rate in 13th Five-Year should be set at 7%.

"It does not mean that the annual GDP growth rate must be 7%. As long as" 13th Five-Year "can reach the goal of a well off society at a level of 7%, Liu Xiahui said.

The Ministry of economic information of the state information center judged that the average annual economic growth rate was about 6.5% during the "13th Five-Year" period.

Wang Tianlong, deputy researcher of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the 6.8% goal in the next five years is enough to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. If there is room for improvement, about 7% will be more appropriate. This will achieve the goal of the established development strategy and ensure that our economy crosses the middle-income trap.

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at National School of Administration's decision consultation department, thinks that the reasonable range of economic growth in 13th Five-Year is between 6% and 7%.

In his view, "13th Five-Year" is mainly to solve the problem of uncoordinated, unsustainable and unbalanced economic growth, and quadrupling GDP growth is required by quality. Economic growth is more than 6% and 6.5% at most.

Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of the China national economic accounting center of Peking University, also believes that the average annual GDP growth of 6% in the next five years will achieve the goal of eighteen overall well-off society, but consider more factors. Gross domestic product It can be set at 6.5% per year.

"The economic growth rate will reach 7% during the" 13th Five-Year "period, and the difficulty is too great. He said.

Promoting higher quality growth

The meeting of the Central Political Bureau held in July 20th pointed out that during the "13th Five-Year" period, new changes have taken place in the environment, conditions, tasks and requirements of China's development. We must have new ideas, new ideas and new measures to understand the new normal, adapt to the new normal, lead the new normal and maintain sustained and healthy economic and social development.

For this reason, we must adhere to the economic construction as the center and start from the actual situation, innovate and perfect the macroeconomic regulation and control mode, maintain the high speed growth in the economy, move towards the middle and high end level, and promote the development of higher quality, more efficiency, fairer and more sustainable development.

Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance, believes that the core is to increase total factor productivity.

"In the full implementation of reform and opening up, and the initiatives for reform and innovation have been comprehensively promoted, we have full confidence that the potential growth rate of China's economy will remain at 7%-8% level in the next five years, that is, during the thirteenth thirteenth year plan period." He said at a recent NetEase economist forum.

Total factor productivity is the productivity of productive activities within a certain period of time. This includes the efficiency of exploitation and utilization of manpower, material resources and financial resources. Up to now, the total amount of labor in China has been declining for many years, and the contribution rate of investment funds to the economy has been reduced. For example, the original "95" period, each investment of 5 yuan, can generate 1 yuan GDP, but by the time of investing 11.5 yuan in 2014, it can generate 1 yuan GDP.

The International Monetary Fund believes that between 2002 and 2007, China Total factor productivity The average annual growth rate is between 5%-6%. From 2008 to 2013, the growth rate of productivity has dropped to 2%-3%. Next, if China promotes the reform of the free trade zone in the pilot area to the whole country, the annual contribution to China's total factor productivity can reach 0.8%. Then the social system reform including the household registration system reform will be comprehensively promoted and implemented. It can be raised by 1.3 percentage points.

Fan Mingtai, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the next step is to increase the proportion of science and technology investment to GDP, but the scope will not be great. The key is how to guide social capital to enter the field of R & D and entrepreneurship through capital market and Internet finance.

In addition, efforts should be made to invest in the pension and ecological sectors, promote structural adjustment of investment, and guide consumption levels. He pointed out that family planning should be liberalized, but appropriate planning is needed.