Tian Hongliang: The US Dollar Short Term Trend Has Not Yet Improved.

Yesterday, the US dollar stabilized after the slide.

The intraday trend is driven mainly by two heavy data, the US durable goods orders and the American Council's consumer confidence index.

The US data on durable goods orders fell unexpectedly, but the consumer confidence index soared to nearly 7 years ago, cutting the dollar down.

According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce yesterday, the US durable goods orders rate fell 1.3% in September, with an expected growth of 0.6% and a correction of 18.3% in the previous value.

Because of the poor economic performance in Europe, weak exports will curb durable goods orders.

Due to the impact of earlier Boeing aircraft orders, durable goods orders will return to normal in the next few months, but the prospects for product sales in the next few years are expected to be strong.

According to the data released yesterday by the American Council of counseling, the consumer confidence index of the American Council of counseling rose to its highest level in October 2007 in October.

Among them, the biggest boost to consumer confidence index is the improvement of consumer confidence index, indicating that the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to withdraw from QE is gradually decreasing.

Sub item data show that in October the United States

The confidence index rose to 95, the highest in February 2011 and 86.4 after 9 menstruation.

Among them, the "hard to get" index dropped to 29.1%, 9 after menstrual correction was 29.4%.

The "employment adequacy" index rose to 16.5%, and 9 after menstruation was revised to 16.3%.

At present, the employment market and business situation are more optimistic than before, and consumers' confidence in the current economic situation is also improving.

The Bank of England, deputy governor of the central bank, said yesterday that the Bank of England could tolerate interest rates for longer than previously expected, mainly because wages and inflation growth were weak and the outlook for global economic growth was dimmer than before.

Influenced by this pigeon pie, the GBP / USD dropped by about 40 points.

"We have seen signs of slowing economic growth in the UK and the prospects for global economic growth have deteriorated," said Mr koliv at a speech in University of Cambridge.

There may be an upward trend in inflation in Britain, he said. "The upward trend of inflation pressure is easier to manage than slower economic growth and falling inflation."

From a technical point of view, the dollar continued to decline yesterday, and the short term has not yet stopped.

Today, the exchange rate is likely to continue to test the support of 85.20 - 85.20. If it is cut down, it will fall to the target of 85 - 85.05.

As long as we do not fall below 85 support, it means that there is room for rebound after finishing the US dollar market.

The US dollar index's rebound is at 86 to 86.20, and only by a breakthrough of 86.20 will the US dollar return to a strong trend.

Today, the resistance of the US dollar index to short-term rise is 85.60 - 85.65, and the short-term resistance is 85.85 - 85.90.

The dollar index's support for today's callback is between 85.20 and 85.25, with significant support from 85 to 85.05.

The euro / dollar rose to a level of 1.2760 yesterday, and then it was blocked and reorganized. As long as it failed to break through 1.2800, it meant that the weak form of euro / dollar has not been fundamentally changed.

Today, the short line resistance is 1.2765--1.2770, and the important resistance is 1.2795 - 1.2800.

Today's support is between 1.2690 and 1.2695, with significant support from 1.2660 to 1.2665.

The US dollar is mainly short selling today, breaking the stops and stopping the losses. If there are more than 30 profit points, we will set a good stop to win. Before we open the market, we will withdraw all the outstanding pactions.

This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

The US dollar index can be sold at the upper limit of the 85.65----85.05 interval, effectively breaking 20 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

It can buy at the lower limit of the 1.2790--1.2690 interval, effectively break 30 points, stop the loss, and aim at the upper limit of the interval.

GBP / USD: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 1.6200----1.6080 interval, effectively breaking the 40 point stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.9500----0.9420 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / yen: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 108.30----107.50 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 0.8890----0.8810 interval, effectively break 30 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.1240---1.1140 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Gold: it can buy at the lower limit of 1235 - 1222, and effectively break $7.

Silver: it can buy at the lower limit of 17.40 - 17.05, and effectively break the position of 0.20 US dollars, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

The above strategy is calculated by my intelligent trading system, and investors are asked to adjust accordingly according to the specific market.