Who Is The Most Likely To Have A Crisis?

Here world clothing shoes The small weave of hat net tells you that the balance of treasure has been set, but the most likely crisis is the small and medium-sized banks.

The central bank has asked the balance of the treasure class monetary fund to turn over to the deposit reserve mind. It seems to me that, as I have decided before, the deposit reserve fund is the bank that balances the treasure class instead of the monetary fund company. If implemented, this proves that the central bank's failure to allow the IMF to pay the deposit reserve fund is wrong. If it weren't for the large deposits of the balance treasure, it would still be wrong.

Contrary to many people's views, I believe that after the balance of treasure deposits are turned over to the reserve, small and medium banks may break out of local money shortage, thereby boosting the proceeds of the Monetary Fund. If the central bank really wants to pay the deposit reserve on the basis of cargo and will not lead to money shortage, personal suggestion: the central bank will gradually increase the deposit rate. For example, first, deposit the deposit reserve into the deposit reserve fund of 5%, then gradually increase the rate, and do not implement the deposit rate of 20% or 17% in one step. Or, we should reduce the deposit reserve ratio first, and let the withdrawal bank pay the freight reserve fund. Otherwise, money shortage is inevitable, and the interest rate of the balance treasure will soar.

Whose crisis

Give Way balance Treasure money fund to deposit quasi gold, who is the crisis? I believe that not the balance of treasure class monetary fund, otherwise, why not let the cargo base reserve. It's banks. Why not let banks pay deposit reserves? I have repeatedly argued about this issue.

The reports that the state-owned banks are unwilling to accept the agreement deposits of the balance treasure has been overwhelming, and the four state-owned commercial banks have long been the displacements of the interbank deposits, rather than the displaced parties. One of the causes of the shortage of money last year was 6, because the four big businesses were reduced.

After the shortage of money, the central bank has appealed to the state-owned banks to pull out the funds to maintain stability. Who is the second central bank? Obviously, it is the four largest bank. After the four big banks, stable market statements were released and funds were removed. The money shortage was resolved after the central bank imported liquidity and the four major banks disassembled the funds.

Celestica fund trader Wang Dengfeng once told me that although state-owned banks do not accept the balance of treasure deposits, they still put the four largest ranks of potential customers as the highest credit rating. Its "state banks abuse me tens of thousands of times, and my attitude towards banks like first love" is indeed worth praising repeatedly.

Who is receiving the balance of the treasure class money fund? Joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks, that is, small and medium-sized banks.

Therefore, once the "treasure" products deposited in small and medium-sized banks are turned over to the deposit reserve, the scale of the balance treasure class monetary fund deposits is about 1 trillion yuan. Even if the reserve ratio is 15%, it will directly freeze the liquidity of 150 billion yuan.

150 billion yuan does not look very big, but these must be paid by small and medium-sized banks.

At present, China's deposit reserve ratio is the highest in the world's major economies, and is also the highest in China's history. In the period of interest rate liberalization, there is only one way to maintain such a high deposit reserve ratio: money and interest rates soar.

Especially fatal is that the small and medium-sized banks can neither enjoy the tax and capital preferences of rural financial institutions, but also have to look at the four rows of assets when they are dismanted. When the money shortage comes, there is only one option left: the introduction of Monetary Fund, and Yu Ebao class prices soaring rather than falling. I can't stop it. I don't believe it.

After advocating the reserve requirement, the income of the balance treasure will drop. Is your brain clamped by the American elevator?

Small and medium banks should guard against shortage of money.

The days of small and medium-sized banks are really bad. ICBC, CCB, ABC, Bank of China and Bank of China are state-owned commercial banks. They are the sons of Yang Ma, the balance treasure is wild children, rural financial institutions are regarded as bitter children (but in fact they are the most rich, the reserve rate is the lowest, and the tax is also reduced), and the small and medium-sized banks are the children whose parents are not reliable.

Ten years ago, there was a principle of financial reform: whose children should be taken away.

Many small and medium banks have been listed, although the major shareholders are central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, local finance (most of the major shareholders of urban commercial banks are local finance, local large enterprises), but these big shareholders are really unreliable. They are looking for a loan. You dare not give it to them. When you encounter shortage of liquidity, they do not have that skill or impulse to give you billions of yuan to ease liquidity.

If I say if, if five state-owned commercial banks appear liquidity tight, I estimate that the central bank will immediately input liquidity, and even do not need five big line requirements. The central bank can see the funds of every bank every day. If the rural credit cooperatives break out, the central bank will inject liquidity in the form of "agriculture to re loan". After the crisis, the money from the central bank is OK.

If there is a run on the balance treasure, it has the famous mother of Alibaba rich father and Celestica fund. If there is a crisis, it will be deposited in the bank instead of Celestica fund or Alipay.

Therefore, the most tragic thing is that small and medium banks appear to be very cattle shareholders. The background looks very strong. There is really a shortage of money. Apart from being shocked or shocked, there is not a single door.

In June last year, when the money shortage took place, the parents of small and medium-sized banks were useless. The reason why the central bank did not sell is to force interest rates to become market-oriented. My view has been proved by later facts.

In addition, because of the leadership policy of "who's children to take away", the central bank has enough reasons to ignore it; of course, maintaining financial market stability is also the central bank's bounden duty, so the central bank finally intervened. In fact, if there are problems with financial institutions other than small and medium-sized banks and balance treasure, the central authorities have long intervened.

It is coming to June, and the banks are now making a half year report on their earnings. Now that the reserves are collected, I predict that if we do not follow the small steps we say, or slow down first, we will have another shortage of money in June. There is no suspense.

　 Why is it difficult to balance treasure?

Since the beginning of this year, all kinds of clamor for the balance of treasure have been heard all the time. Let me pay attention to those who are less concerned about Internet Finance and join in the fight, and become intern reporter of Internet Finance soon.

Later, I found that regulators, state-owned banks and other Alibaba and Alipay policies were wonderful, and their tricks were frequent. They clearly violated the principle of fairness. In the early days, I wrote that the reserve fund for the balance of treasure would be paid.

Celestica fund is a fund company which is a financial institution. Banks are lending money to each other.

Then I ask you: do you need to deposit the bank's interbank deposit? I didn't hand it in because it was small and big enough to pay. I asked again: were you right or are you right now?

Interbank deposits are huge. Once the deposit reserve is paid, that is not the problem of making money shortage. That is the manufacturing recession.

Later, I learned that many people can't bear to see Ma Yun. To tell the truth, I personally do not appreciate this person. You don't like to toss people's businesses and products alone.

Later, I heard that Tencent issued a virtual credit card and a two-dimensional code separately with CITIC Bank. It will not be stopped. The insider said Ali did not have enough Tencent.

Fortunately, the central bank is open-minded and professionals are in the majority. The director of the payment and settlement division indicated that there should be room for Internet financial regulation. Yi Gang, deputy head of the financial affairs office, vice president of the central bank and deputy director of the safe, Yi Gang also made clear that he must tolerate the financial innovation of balance treasure.

pay Deposit reserve This is reasonable. We hope that the principle of fairness should not be forgotten. Yes, we hope that by balancing the deposit reserve with the reserve fund, we will raise the price of capital. I hope this is not the end.

Alibaba is going to be listed in the United States, and we hope that people will not mess with ALI and let them sell a good price. We can't send coffins when people do happy deeds. After all, it is hard for China to cultivate a great Internet Co.

Ma Yun: do you hold your breath when you are low key? You can't learn Ma Huateng, and you can learn from Baidu's Robin Li too. BAT, good luck.