RMB Control To Guide Capital Side To Block Arbitrage Funds

< p > "unilateral appreciation," a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > exchange rate < /a > small fluctuations, and making more renminbi is almost "stable". At the beginning of each year, the market will usually establish a large number of RMB long positions.

A senior foreign exchange trader in a foreign capital told reporters, "but according to the latest trend, the risk of unilateral bet on RMB appreciation is bigger and bigger."

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< p > according to the source, some traders usually bet on the renminbi through options, forwards and other derivatives. With the recent fall in the offshore and offshore markets, some short term investors have been frustrated, and long-term investors have begun to adjust their positions.

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< p > but on the whole, the market still thinks RMB has fair value.

"Although the renminbi has been declining for several consecutive days, it is still in a reasonable trading range."

Armitage, director of Asian marketing, trade and research, said 25, in an interview with the Shanghai Daily reporter.

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< p > up to now, overseas institutions have not adjusted the trend of RMB in 2014. They believe that the RMB is only weak in the short term, and still maintain the judgement of 2%-3% appreciation throughout the year.

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"P > UBS, JP Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and other institutions have also issued a report that the recent devaluation of the RMB may be due to the central bank's behavior to control hot money and try to reverse the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi.

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Similarly, in 2012, China allowed RMB to depreciate by about 1.5% in about three months, and after that, it basically entered a path of steady appreciation.

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< p > < strong > pmission < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > financial reform < /a > signal < /strong > /p >

< p > "massive influx of overseas funds into the mainland market will have an impact on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy."

Yao Wei, chief economist of China's Bank of China, told the Shanghai news reporters that the central bank's intervention is successful in the light of current market feedback.

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Besides P speculators who extrude the appreciation of short line arbitrage, overseas analysts also believe that it also conveys to the whole world the signal of China's further financial reform, and the market needs to prepare for a larger range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations.

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< p > many institutions expect that the central bank will expand the RMB exchange rate from 1% to 2% this year, which is a big probability event.

JP Morgan's latest report even said that China could extend the current trading range of RMB exchange rate from 1% to 2% in 2 or 3 months.

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The latest survey by P shows that 37% of overseas institutional investors expect that the value of the renminbi will not be changed because of financial reform, while only 18% of Chinese institutional investors hold the same view.

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< p > in anticipating the impact of financial liberalization on currency valuation, institutional investors expect RMB appreciation and depreciation to account for 40% and 35% respectively.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Free Trade Zone > /a > offshore market < /strong > /p >

< p > overseas investors are generally optimistic about Shanghai free trade zone.

The research shows that 21% of respondents believe that Shanghai will realize the rapid growth of offshore RMB portfolio trading in the next three years, second only to Hongkong.

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< p > "although the respondents agree that China's Hongkong region will continue to dominate the paction in the next three years, Shanghai free trade zone will be the second largest market with rapid growth.

Moreover, most institutional investors believe that the expansion of Shanghai free trade zone and other free trade zones that may be set up in the future will make China face urgent monetary reform.

Road rich bank said.

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< p > in addition, the development of offshore market and the further measures to achieve the full liberalization of RMB and the cultivation of offshore market will attract much market attention.

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< p > "since the end of 2012, we have gained about 2.7% appreciation.

In addition, the 4% yield of offshore RMB bond market makes it very attractive.

A foreign capital asset management department believes that this trend will continue in the next few years.

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< p > this person further said, "expanding the role of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in the offshore RMB market and supporting Shanghai as an international financial center is one of the major initiatives to implement China's reform agenda. The reform will help China integrate into the international standard financial market and connect the offshore and offshore financial markets."

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