The People'S Bank Of China Dominates The Fall Of The Renminbi.

< p > recently, the market focus was mainly on the rapid decline of the RMB. After the 6.1000 dollar pass yesterday, the dollar and spot Renminbi (CNY) increased to 6.1310, and then closed at 6.1266.

Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative decline in the RMB against the US dollar has been more than 1%. The difference between spot CNY and offshore renminbi (CNH) has narrowed to below 100 points from over 300 points in 2 months, which has greatly reduced the arbitrage speculation.

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< p > > from the change of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > < /a >, we can see that the fall of the RMB began on last Wednesday (February 19th), and on February 17-18, the people's Bank of China held a meeting. On the 19 day it was announced on the official website. This year, the floating range of exchange rate will be expanded orderly, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will be gradually improved, and the cross-border use of RMB will continue to be expanded, so as to accelerate the convertibility of RMB capital account.

At the same time, the people's Bank of China keeps lowering the central parity of RMB, plus the accumulation of too many RMB good positions before the market. Under the leadership of micro-blog, investors also choose to liquidate before the "two sessions", which has accelerated the decline of the renminbi.

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< p > as for the reasons why people's efforts to reduce the RMB exchange rate vigorously, last Friday (February 21), it was mentioned in the text that the main purpose is to change the market's expectation of RMB's unilateral appreciation, and to create a two-way fluctuating market expectation by artificially lowering the RMB exchange rate, and to reduce the risk of RMB's rapid appreciation when the floating rate of exchange rate is widened, so as to pave the way for further enlarging the floating range of exchange rate.

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Last Friday and yesterday's article pointed out that the RMB is still the currency that the central bank can intervene and control. If the people's Bank of China deliberately lowered the RMB exchange rate, the renminbi will continue to fall further until the central bank is satisfied. The short-term volatility will continue. It is estimated that the US dollar will have a chance to further test the 6.1750-6.20 level against the RMB in p a.

But in the medium and long term, China's economic and policy fundamentals will still support the trend of further appreciation of RMB.

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< p > < strong > trading strategy < /strong > < /p >

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > US dollar < /a > / yen: short term consolidation in 101.50-103, but the medium and long term upward trend has not changed "/p >.

< p > major currencies continue to be in the recent period of regional consolidation, with little change. The US dollar index continues to linger around the 80 pass, and the US dollar continues to consolidate near the 102 yen.

Technically, the US dollar has recovered from the yen's early adjustment to 101, and has rebounded to above 102. The short line will be arranged between 101.50-103.

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< p > but Japan's economic recovery is weak. The first quarter of last year's gross domestic product (GDP) announced by Japan last week increased by 0.3%, far less than expected growth of 0.7%. The annualized rate increased by 1%, which is also far behind the expected growth of 2.8%. This prompted the Japanese Central Bank (P) to increase its decision last week to encourage banks to lend and support the scale of the economic growth loan program, and to extend the duration of the related loan scheme for another year, which is a prelude to further easing.

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Japan will raise its sales tax to 8% in April, which will further impact domestic consumption and the economy of Japan. The Bank of Japan needs to take precautions against P.

The difference between us and Japan's economic and monetary policies is expected to further expand in the future, which will benefit the US dollar against the yen's long-term trend.

Continue to maintain the midline target on 110, and long-term target 115.

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