The Impact Of Yen Depreciation On China's Exports

Since Abe Shinzo was elected Prime Minister of Japan last year, he hopes to devalue the Japanese yen to promote Japanese exports. Economics Revival. Up to now, the US dollar has appreciated by more than 30% against the Japanese yen, and the renminbi has also hit a new 15 year high against the yen. There is a view that Chinese exporters will be the biggest losers in the sharp depreciation of the yen. In fact, the economic structure between China and Japan is quite different. The negative impact of the depreciation of the yen on China's exports and investment is relatively small. Chinese exporters will not be the victims of the sharp depreciation of the yen.

Andouble pushed yen devaluation and RMB appreciation against Japanese Yen

In the course of the Japanese yen's decline, the Japanese stock market rose all the way, leading to the Asia Pacific stock market and rising to a 5 year high.

　　 Devaluation of yen It began as early as October 2012. In December 16, 2012, the LDP won the ruling power of the new government and clearly launched a bold expansive policy to fight deflation and boost the economy. The devaluation of the yen accelerated. From the low point to the recent high, the yen has depreciated more than 30% against the US dollar.

At present, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has replaced the governor of the Bank of Japan for Kuroda Higashihiko, who also agrees with the easing policy, has launched a QE of a large scale and has raised the inflation target to 2%. The yen exchange rate has begun to depreciate under the pressure of the QE policy. Moreover, the devaluation process has not yet stopped.

At the same time, the RMB exchange rate continued to strengthen, and the US dollar fell to a 19 year low against the yuan, which means that the renminbi rose against the yen.

In the face of the fact that the renminbi appreciates sharply against the Japanese yen, there is a view that this may greatly change the starting point for competition between the two export sectors. China has been winning over Japan in the export sector for a long time. Japan has been able to win the first time in the global export market share for the first time in recent decades due to the sharp depreciation of the yen.

Devaluation of yen to China Exit There are indeed negative effects.

The depreciation of the yen or the lifting of the currency war triggered the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

Generally speaking, the depreciation of the Japanese yen will encourage Japan's exports, and at the same time, it is not conducive to foreign trade of other countries. But the reality is that the economic structure between China and Japan is quite different. The dominant industries in Japan are concentrated in machinery, electronics and automobiles. China is the world's factory and its dominant industries are concentrated. Leatherwear Products, shoes In the manufacturing industry such as caps, furniture and toys, the depreciation of the Japanese yen will have a certain negative impact on China's economy, but it has little impact. China will not become a victim of the depreciation of the Japanese yen.

This time, Japan's exports will be eroded by promoting the depreciation of the yen and the export share of South Korea and Taiwan with smaller economic structure. At present, some manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan have already lost their export growth due to the depreciation of the yen.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to April, the total value of China's imports and exports was 8 trillion and 360 billion yuan, and the exchange rate factor increased by 14% over the same period last year. Exports of 4 trillion and 370 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%, imports of 3 trillion and 990 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, and a trade surplus of 383 billion 460 million yuan. Thus, the overall performance of China's foreign trade data in the first 4 months has been better, especially since the import figures are better than expected, indicating that domestic demand has increased. This indicates that the depreciation of the yen has little impact on China's foreign trade as a whole.

The depreciation of the yen is not good for China.

After the sharp depreciation of the yen, Japanese products will be cheaper than before.

The depreciation of the Japanese yen will undoubtedly bring a certain negative impact to the Japanese yen settlement or competitors for Japanese enterprises, but for some parts imported from Japan, it has also made a positive effect.

It is obvious that the depreciation of the yen will benefit the import of China's auto manufacturing industry, LED manufacturing industry and optical industry, and the purchasing cost of related enterprises will be reduced. Take FAW car as an example, it is estimated that the cost of imported spare parts accounts for about 35% of the total cost of the company. It is estimated that the gross profit margin of FAW car company will increase significantly in 2013.

In today's globalization era, economies are closely interrelated and closely related. The devaluation of the yen will make Chinese people travel, shop and study more affordable. It will help Chinese enterprises and citizens to make good investments, study abroad, travel and consumption.

Since last October, the appreciation of RMB against Japanese yen has been increasing. The appreciation rate is more than 30%. If the Chinese study in Japan, the tuition fees for May this year will be thirty percent off compared with that of last October. This is a good thing for Chinese students.

Chinese people always love to buy real estate. At present, the land use right of China's residential land is 70 years, while Japan is a permanent property right. More and more Chinese rich people begin to pay close attention to Japan's real estate in order to leave more assets for their descendants. At present, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply, which is also a great benefit to the Chinese who plan to buy houses in Japan.

After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China has accumulated a certain amount of capital. Under the circumstances of global optimal allocation of resources, Chinese enterprises will naturally take over Japanese enterprises.

After the rapid development of World War II, there are many capital and technology intensive industries in Japan, and most of them are labor-intensive industries. Therefore, Japanese enterprises separated by water are also the ideal targets for Chinese enterprises to merge. With the current appreciation of the renminbi against Japanese yen, the merger and acquisition of Japanese Enterprises by Chinese enterprises is relatively cost-effective, so that after the merger, there is obvious synergy effect. The Sino Japanese economy can complement each other and improve China's economic structure and promote industrial upgrading.

epilogue

The devaluation of the yen has both advantages and disadvantages for China. Because of the large differences in economic structure between China and Japan, China will not only become a victim of the depreciation of the yen, but will also help Chinese enterprises and residents to invest in Japan, buy houses, consume and study abroad, and will further promote the further optimization and upgrading of China's economy.