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New Cotton Policy Drives Cotton Futures To Go Higher

2013/1/28 18:34:00 53

New Cotton Policy Cotton Futures Cotton Market

> many investors still have fresh memories of the "Crazy" rise of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton futures < /a > spot prices in the period from 2010 to 2011. But after 2012, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/ index_cj.asp" > cotton price < /a > began to return to fundamentals, and price fluctuations gradually returned to calm and reasonable. As the market generally believed that the global cotton production will increase and the downstream consumption is sluggish, cotton prices have been at a low level for a long time in 2012. Especially since last June, most of the domestic cotton futures contract prices are running below 20000 yuan / ton, and the price fluctuation is small, which has led many investors to gradually forget this variety. And the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > seems to be unwilling to be lonely. At the beginning of the new year, the domestic cotton prices rose faster and faster under the promotion of the policy spring breeze and the external market. By the end of January 25th, the cotton flower main contract of the Zhengzhou commodity exchange had risen 4.85% in the first month of the new year, and once hit a new high within 7 months. 
 American cotton is stronger than /strong. 
Less than P, leading the cotton futures of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, the main cotton contract of the New York Futures Exchange (NYBOT) has rebounded since the end of last year. It has risen for 3 consecutive months, and has rebounded more than 14% since last November. Judging from the recent series of supply and demand reports, global production is expected to decline, while consumption expectations are increasing. The US Department of agriculture report shows that global cotton production in 2012/2013 will be reduced by 6% over the previous year and is expected to be 25 million 453 thousand tons. In the main cotton producing countries, output will decline in Brazil, India, China and Australia. In terms of consumption, the global consumption in the new year has increased to 23 million 184 thousand tons over the previous year. In addition to the favorable supply and demand fundamentals, the recent European debt relief and the smooth resolution of the US fiscal cliff have made the market more optimistic about the future economic forecast, and the risk preference of investors has obviously returned. This has boosted the trend of foreign commodities including cotton. Liu Chunfang, a researcher at CITIC Securities and securities industry, told reporters that the rebound of the US cotton mainly reflects the change of global supply and demand. Although the correlation between domestic futures and external market is not very high, the continuous rise of the external market provides a better environment for the rise of Zheng cotton. 
 dumping and storage is not bad. 
 although the rise of the external market has provided a cushion for domestic cotton prices, more analysts believe that the recent trend of cotton trade in the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange has been affected by the national reserve policy. The complexity of the current situation is that on the one hand, it is still in the period of dumping and storage. On the other hand, the state begins to store and store new cotton. According to past experience, throwing and storing is bad, but Jinyuan futures analysis teacher Yan Wen believes that the dumping will not have a negative impact on the market, but to a certain extent, it is also conducive to the rise of market prices. 
 reporters learned that the "round cotton" was redefined in the current round of throwing and storage, and the emergence of "turn around cotton" was prohibited. "Spinning cotton" means that the textile enterprises will resell or reserve the reserve cotton bags again. In the relevant policies, the state expressly stipulated that "the cotton textile purchased by the textile enterprises shall be strictly prohibited for the spanaction of commodity cotton trading or the futures trading delivery of the Zhengzhou commodity exchange", and the corresponding penalties shall be issued. The purpose is to prevent some speculators from using futures and other tools to suppress the price and impact the spot market, and to stabilize the confidence of the industrial chain while preventing speculative attacks. 
 cotton prices are not at an "overheating" level. Therefore, the national reserve cotton is not intended to "cool down" cotton prices. From the point of view of throwing and storing, the dumping is to sell the sliding tax quota in proportion to 3:1. Because the price of imported cotton is low, the price difference of domestic cotton at the same level is above 4000 yuan / ton. Therefore, even if the three grade cotton is 19000 yuan / ton, the average price of cotton spinning enterprises is about 18000 yuan / ton, which is very attractive to them. 
 from another point of view, tossing and storing is also a necessary process to inventory. At present, the higher inventory in China is the biggest haze in the market, which seems to increase the supply of the market in a short time. But this is the first step in the market to digest the inventory, and it is the process that the price must be renewed. {page_break} 
 collection and storage policy "bottom" /p >
 last week, people familiar with the latest agricultural policy revealed that the relevant documents covering agricultural production such as cotton were about to be issued. The article clearly put forward "in accordance with the principle of reasonable production cost plus reasonable profit, timely start up temporary collection and storage of cotton and other agricultural products". This is since the price of $2400 / ton was opened last year, the departments concerned once again put forward the intention of purchasing and storing. Judging from past experience, the cotton spot spot price in 2011 hit a long bear road after hitting a high point in the year. Until the end of October 2011, the state temporary purchase and storage announced 19800 yuan / ton "policy bottom" before stopping the pace of decline. 
 Liu Chunfang told reporters that at present, because of the obvious increase in planting costs and labor costs, the current income of planting cotton is no more obvious than that of other crops. In addition to the larger planting farms, the planting willingness of small-scale farmers is obviously reduced because of the high cost and high cost of planting cotton. If the price of storage and storage is not raised, the willingness to grow will inevitably lead to an increase in external dependence, like the soybean industry chain. The current purchase and storage price is 20400 yuan / ton, which has increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous time. For the new cotton "open purchase", it is easy to see that the policy support intention and the future purchase and storage price is still rising. 
 demand is looking forward to improvement .
"P >" from the demand of the downstream, Chinese textile enterprises face the double pressure of high stock and increase in operating costs. Because of the appreciation of the RMB and the increase in the cost of labor, textile exports are also facing greater pressure. This is also the cause of the decline of cotton prices in the previous year under the "bottom of the policy", but this situation may be encountered in 2013. 
Fan Yanwen analyzed international and domestic factors. From the international point of view, the macroeconomic situation in Europe and the United States has improved significantly compared with 2012. The European debt problem has obviously improved. Last week, the euro and the US dollar hit a high point in more than a year. On Friday, the European Central bank governor Delagi said that in addition to solving the European debt crisis, the European economy would resume its positive growth in the second half of 2013. When the United States passed the fiscal cliff at the beginning of the year, a series of economic data showed that the momentum of economic recovery was still continuing. The number of initial jobless claims announced last Thursday dropped to 330 thousand, the lowest level in nearly five years, and the employment level continued to improve. Therefore, in 2013, the consumption demand in Europe and the United States will increase to a certain extent compared with that in 2012, and the external environment faced by Chinese textile enterprises will be improved. 
 domestic demand also shows an increasing trend. According to the statistics released by the Statistics Bureau in January 18th, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth in 2012 was 51.8%, which has become the biggest driving force for economic development. The continuous expansion of domestic demand will bring a turning point for textile enterprises. The policy of "income doubling plan" has made the market look at the terminal demand of domestic textiles in the future, which is a great profit factor for cotton.