Cotton Prices Easy To Fall, Difficult To Rise Will Maintain Weak Oscillation Pattern

< p > current, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > Cotton City < /a > the expectation of dumping and storage is constantly increasing, while downstream demand is not showing signs of improvement. Affected by the suspension of production during the Spring Festival, the amount of cotton used by domestic textile enterprises will decline again.

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< p > < strong > 2012, the situation of cotton storage and storage is less than /strong > /p >

< p > recently, Zheng cotton has gone out of the market.

In 2012, the volume of storage and storage of cotton continued to enlarge, and the total inventory at the end of the year reached a record high. The huge inventory pressure led to an increase in dumping and storage, while the downstream demand showed no signs of improvement. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic textile enterprises were faced with the suspension of production and the cotton consumption would drop again. Under the dual pressure of inventory pressure and weak demand, cotton prices would fall and rise, which would maintain the weak oscillation pattern.

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< p > < strong > registered warehouse receipts rapid recovery < /strong > < /p >

< p > recently, Zheng cotton's contract price has risen rapidly in recent months, and the futures price is higher than the reserve price. Cotton registered warehouse receipts rebounded slightly.

In December 24th, the total amount of warehouse receipts for Zheng cotton futures was 509, 123 warehouse receipts were forecast, and 33 cotton warehouse receipts were added.

By comparison, it can be found that the total volume of cotton warehouse receipts was only 210 last year, and the new warehouse receipt was 112. The current futures warehouse receipts were higher than last year, and the new warehouse receipts were significantly lower than in previous years, but the volume of cotton warehouse receipts has begun to rise.

Although the quantity of cotton warehouse receipts has increased in quantity, it has changed the pattern of warehouse receipts coming out only, and has greatly suppressed the confidence of bulls.

Recently, the position of Zheng cotton contract in recent months has seen a sharp decline, which has a significant effect on the price.

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< p > < strong > dumping storage is expected to increase < /strong > < /p >.

< p > as of December 21st, the new year's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp" > storage and storage > /a > has totaled 4 million 850 thousand tons, and the total annual reserves will be more than 5 million 500 thousand tons in the new year.

In 2011, the carrying capacity of cotton was 4 million 430 thousand tons, excluding 490 thousand tons of throwing and storing in September. The total stock of cotton will reach more than 9 million tons.

In the past two years, the departments concerned are trying to normalize the policy of purchasing and storage, that is to say, under the premise of guaranteeing market demand, we reserve a certain amount of cotton stocks to regulate short-term supply and demand imbalance so as to maintain stable cotton prices.

If calculated according to the total inventory of 6 million tons of cotton, the country has nearly 3 million tons of cotton reserves into the market, plus 3 million tons of imported cotton and imported cotton in the new year. In 2013 1 to August, the total supply of cotton was about 6 million tons, which basically met the market supply.

But in the short term, dumping will have a greater impact on the market. In the near future, the market rumors will throw the store after the Spring Festival. According to the ratio of reserve cotton and quotas 3: 1 or 3: 1.5, the reserve price will be 19000 yuan / ton. If the news is true, the price will be affected to move to this price.

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< p > < strong > spinning enterprises continue to decline in production capacity < /strong > < /p >

< p > with the advent of rain and snow in northern parts of China, the phenomenon of on-the-spot suspension of domestic textile enterprises is becoming more common, and the operating rate has dropped to a new low.

After mid December, snow fell in most parts of the country, which once again suppressed the continued weak spot market. At present, there is little demand for cotton market in all parts of the country, with only sporadic turnover, and cotton sales are sluggish.

Although the spot price of cotton remained high, the turnover was scarce. The current price of the 329 grade cotton to the factory in the mainland is about 19500 yuan / ton, and the 329 yuan Xinjiang cotton factory in Xinjiang is offering 20000 yuan / ton.

Near the end of the year, small and medium-sized textile enterprises have tight funds and stop production and shut down.

According to China cotton information network research, at present, Shandong, Hebei and other places of small and medium-sized enterprises operating rate is only 40%, most of them have stopped production and vacation.

The whole cotton yarn market is still no big change, the scattered shipment is the main. Zouping Shandong semi combed 32S newspaper is 28500 yuan / ton, 40S reported 29500 yuan / ton, basically unchanged from the previous stage, and the lack of foreign trade orders is the primary problem of the current enterprises.

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< p > comprehensive analysis, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton > /a > registered warehouse receipts increased the pressure of long confidence, Zheng cotton contract prices fell rapidly in recent months.

The cotton purchase and storage did not change the supply and demand structure of the market, and the reserve cotton could enter the market any time. The quantity and price of the cotton stored in the cotton mill had a great impact on cotton prices.

Weak demand is not enough to support cotton prices. Cotton prices are likely to fall and rise.

Cotton CF1301 contract is expected to oscillate in the 20000 line, and CF1305 contract will be weak in 19100 - 19300.

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