The Helpless &Nbsp Of Export To Domestic Sales; The Low Price Of Textile Raw Materials Market For Cash Flow.

Domestic textile in the four quarter of 2011 market The overall boom is not high, and most of the products are on a downward trend. The whole industrial chain operation atmosphere continued to slump, and turnover remained at a low level. As a result, the production and sale rate of textile enterprises is difficult to increase, and the backlog of inventory is becoming more and more intense. Some enterprises are forced to sell goods at low prices in order to compete for the market and exchange liquidity. In addition, due to the end of the year, some enterprises with poor efficiency began to limit production and stop production, and made plans for early holidays.

Analysis of the four quarter of the decline in textile products, mainly due to the sharp reduction in export orders, resulting in a large number of export products sold to the domestic market, so that the domestic market competition intensified, eventually brewing volume and price down. bear market 。 Textile products are mainly exported. clothing Enterprises reflect that foreign trade orders have been gradually reduced since last year, especially in the second half of the year, and orders have been reduced by more than 50%. Since last year, the resistance to foreign trade is mainly reflected in the following points:

First, the international economic recovery is slow, and the demand for textile and clothing is weakened. Data show that in 2011 1~10, the number of imported cotton products from the United States decreased by 12.27% compared with the same period last year, and the number of imported cotton products from China dropped by 17.56% compared with the same period last year, and other countries also had similar situations.

The two is the impact of foreign cheap cotton and cotton yarn on domestic textile enterprises. Domestic cotton and international cotton The price has a huge gap of 1000~2000 yuan / ton, and the large number of cheap cotton yarn in India and Pakistan is flooding the market, which makes the international competition of Chinese textile enterprises frustrated. The state's low price for cotton is a double-edged sword. While protecting the interests of cotton farmers and stabilizing the domestic market, it also greatly weakens the competitiveness of China's textile products in the international market.

Three, the cost of production and operation has been rising, the cost of textile products has gradually increased and the price has not been reduced, making the original orders less scarce.

Four, for many years, most textile and garment enterprises in China still rely on low cost products to gain market share. Some relatively high value-added products are unable to get orders due to technical bottlenecks. In the long run, a product with high technology content has been formed, which can not be purchased technically. The low grade products can not afford the double embarrassment that they can't take orders.

In such an economic environment, the textile and garment industry with high dependence on foreign trade suffers greatly. The result is a sharp contraction in volume, followed by falling prices. Statistics show that in November 2011, the export volume of yarn decreased by 8%, and the export volume of knitted and woven garments also dropped by 11%.

During the fourth quarter of 2011, the price of viscose staple decreased by 3850 yuan / ton, or 19.4%, and the price of cotton yarn decreased by 4200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 17.4%, and the price of cotton cloth decreased by 0.4 yuan / meter, a decrease of 7.3%. Secondly, polyester staple fiber, polyester cotton yarn and polyester cotton cloth decreased by 1750 yuan / ton, 1600 yuan / ton and 0.4 yuan / meter respectively, with a decrease of 13.1%, 6.8% and 6.3% respectively. The prices of cotton, pure cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth fell by 820 yuan / ton, 2200 yuan / ton and 0.2 yuan / meter respectively, with a decrease of 4.1%, 7.9% and 3.3% respectively.

Obviously, the price drop of cotton products is relatively small, so we can see that the state's policy of supporting the cotton price is very important. As we all know, the price of 19800 yuan / ton of temporary storage and storage has affected the price of domestic cotton. In recent months, domestic cotton prices have picked up and maintained at 19000 yuan / ton to 20000 yuan / ton, which has not continued to decline, and plays a strong supporting role in the cotton textile market.

It is worth mentioning that this year, although the foreign trade situation is extremely grim, the domestic terminal consumption is still very optimistic, and domestic textile and clothing prices have increased substantially. The good performance of the terminal market to some extent has given positive encouragement to the current downturn in textile production and has played an important role in restraining the sharp decline of the market. {page_break}

　　 The decline of major textile products in the four quarter of 2011 (unit: yuan / ton; yuan / meter;%)

Note: cotton is 328 grade average price; polyester short is 1.4D * 38mm average price; sticky short is 1.5D * 38mm average price; pure cotton yarn is average price of C32S combed cotton yarn; polyester cotton yarn is T65/C35 45S average price; human cotton yarn is R30S average price; cotton cloth is C32S x C32S 68 * 6863 "grey cloth average price; polyester cotton cloth is T65/C35 C32S * 110 110 7663" grey cloth average price; human cotton cloth is * * * 68 * 6863 "grey cloth average price (same below).

　　 Valley comparison - except for viscose staple and cotton yarn, the rest has not fallen below the lowest price in 2010.

Data show that in the four quarter of 2011, the price of major textile products decreased in varying degrees compared with the previous 3 quarters, indicating that the value of the four quarter was the lowest in 2011. However, if the lowest point is compared with the lowest point in 2010, except for viscose staple fiber and cotton yarn, the price of other products such as cotton, polyester staple fiber, cotton yarn, polyester cotton yarn, cotton fabric, polyester cotton cloth and cotton cloth has been raised, or the price of these products has not fallen below the valley value of 2010. Whether or not the price of cotton products is the largest decline compared with the same period last year, it is still not improving compared with the lowest point in 2010. It shows that the market of cotton products is even weaker than that of pure cotton and polyester cotton products. These facts also prove the effective role of the national cotton purchasing and storage policy from another aspect.

In the four quarter of 2011, compared with the three quarter, cotton prices and cotton prices remained flat. For example, the price of PET staple and viscose staple in the four quarter decreased by 14.4% and 10.7% respectively compared with the three quarter. The valley price of cotton yarn, polyester cotton yarn and human cotton yarn decreased 4.4%, 5.6% and 13.9% respectively than those in the three quarter, and the valley value of polyester cotton cloth and cotton cloth decreased by 6.8% and 6% respectively compared with that in the three quarter. The reason why cotton prices, cotton yarns and pure cotton prices are not much or flat are mainly due to the fact that cotton has a national purchasing price, so there is no significant decline in the prices of cotton products.

In the four quarter of 2011, the prices of pure cotton, polyester cotton and cotton products decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2010. First, the price valley value of cotton, pure cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth in the fourth quarter decreased by 16.3%, 17.6% and 18.5% respectively than that in the same period in 2010. Secondly, the valley value of polyester staple, polyester cotton yarn and polyester cotton cloth decreased by 12.3%, 12% and 5.2%, respectively, compared with the same period in 2010. The price of viscose staple fiber, cotton yarn and cotton cloth decreased 23.9%, 26.7% and 12.1% respectively compared with the same period in 2010.

The price of textile raw materials, yarns or cloth was inflection point after reaching the peak in the first quarter of 2011, and then declined continuously in the 3 quarters after 2011.

　 Peak comparison - all the top touches in 2011 failed to reach the highest level in the past two years.

The peak price of textile products in the fourth quarter of 2011 showed a downward trend, especially in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period in 2010. And the valley inflection point (high point) appeared in the first quarter of 2011. The peak inflection point (high point) of raw material, yarn and cloth price appeared in the four quarter of 2010, indicating that after entering 2011, the highest price of textile products did not hit the peak of two years. This also shows that the experience and lessons of blindly buying up the market in 2010 have made people more aware of the market rules and will be more rational about deviating from the actual market changes.

In the four quarter of 2011, the peak value of major textile products decreased generally compared with the three quarter. For cotton, pure cotton yarn and cotton cloth, the peak to cycle ratio decreased by 16.9%, 10.3% and 5.2% respectively; the peak value of PET staple, polyester cotton yarn and polyester cotton cloth decreased by 5.7%, 9.6% and 7.8% respectively; the peak value of viscose staple fiber, cotton yarn and cotton cloth decreased by 0.5%, 0.4% and 4.8% respectively.

In the four quarter of 2011, the peak value of major textile products fell sharply compared with the same period last year. Among them, the peak value of cotton, polyester staple, viscose staple, pure cotton yarn, cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and decreased by 36.3%, 33.3%, 36.5%, 34.6%, 34.6% and 31.3% respectively. The peak price of polyester cotton yarn, polyester cotton cloth and cotton cloth were over 20%, decreasing 29.9%, 21.3% and 22.4% respectively.

The peak prices of major textile products in the four quarter of 2011 were lower than those in the first 3 quarters, especially when compared with the fourth quarter of 2010.

　 Peak valley gap - a sharp reduction in the whole year, proving that the risk of production and circulation is gradually easing.

The larger the difference between peak price and valley price, the greater the fluctuation of market and the worse the stability, the greater the risk of production and circulation. In 2011, the difference between peak and valley prices of major textile products decreased significantly compared with 2010. Compared with 2010, the textile market in 2011 was less volatile and more stable. This phenomenon also fully demonstrates that under the control of national macro policies, the domestic textile market is moving in a benign direction under the increasingly mature market regulation.

Comparison of profits - there are great differences in price differentials in different periods, no profits or frequent breakeven cases.

　　 [pure cotton] the highest price difference in February was 9500 yuan / ton, and the lowest price difference in August was 2700 yuan / ton.

At different times in 2011, the cost of raw materials and cotton yarn spreads were very different, for example, in February, it was as high as 9500 yuan / ton, while the price difference in early August was only 2700 yuan / ton. In the four quarter, the price difference was relatively stable, fluctuating slightly between 5000 yuan / ton to 6000 yuan / ton, most of the time was 5000 yuan / ton. Judging from the price difference, there is still room for profit for cotton production in the fourth quarter. Of course, these figures are derived from normal production and operation, excluding the situation of low inventory.

The four quarter of 2011, cotton, cotton yarn, cotton prices overall downward trend. For example, the price of grade 328 cotton slipped from 19950 yuan / ton in early October to 19000 yuan / ton in early December, falling 950 yuan / ton, or 4.8%. Before and after the beginning of December, cotton spot prices began to rebound slightly, and by the end of December, the price of grade 328 cotton slowly increased to 19150 yuan / ton, or 0.85%.

In the four quarter, the price of pure cotton yarn also plummeted, but it slipped and stabilized in the first half of December. For example, the price of C32S dropped from 27800 yuan / ton in early October to 25800 yuan / ton in early December, down 2000 yuan / ton, or 7.2%. The whole December basically stabilized at 25500 yuan / ton to 26000 yuan / ton, fluctuated little.

The price of pure cotton cloth in the fourth quarter also follows down the cotton yarn market, and the track is similar to cotton yarn. Such as C32S * C32S 68 * 6863 "cotton price in early October, the price was 5.5 yuan / m, and to the beginning of December, the price dropped to 5.3 yuan / m, a decrease of 0.2 yuan / m, a decrease of 3.6%, and then in December around the 5.3 yuan / M stable finishing.

Cotton price change will inevitably lead to price linkage of cotton yarn. However, due to other factors such as raw materials, the time and magnitude of cotton yarn price change are not necessarily synchronized with cotton, which will cause fluctuations in the price difference between raw material cost and cotton yarn price. This difference reflects the size of cotton production profit space in the corresponding time frame (spinning cost, raw material cost accounts for about 70%). {page_break}

　 Polyester / cotton] the highest price difference in the first quarter was 8000 yuan / ton, the lowest price difference in the two quarter was 1000 yuan / ton.

Although the price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated greatly in the fourth quarter of 2011, the price of polyester cotton yarn and cloth was smaller than that in the three quarter due to the influence of cotton price control. As the price of cotton is relatively stable, the price difference between polyester cotton yarn and raw materials has changed little in the four quarter, and the cost of raw materials and yarn difference fluctuated slightly at 4000 yuan / ton to 5000 yuan / ton, down from 7000 yuan / ton to 8000 yuan / ton in the first quarter to 1000 yuan / ton to 2000 yuan / ton in the two quarter. However, the price difference of 4000 yuan / ton to 5000 yuan / ton is not profitable for most enterprises. Therefore, many manufacturers have reduced the proportion of polyester cotton yarn and converted to pure cotton yarn.

　　 Price changes of polyester cotton raw materials, yarns and fabrics in the fourth quarter of 2011

In the four quarter of 2011, the polyester cotton yarn and cloth market fell before they were flat. At the beginning of October, the price of 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber was 13200 yuan / ton, then down all the way, down to 10700 yuan / ton in late November, and dropped 2500 yuan / ton in 1 months, a decrease of 18.9%. But in December, prices began to pick up again, rising to 11600 yuan / ton at the end of 12, rising by 900 yuan / ton and 8.4%.

The price of polyester cotton yarn in the fourth quarter dropped slightly, for example, the price of T/C 65/35 45S was 23500 yuan / ton in early October, and dropped to 1500 yuan / ton in December, down 6.4%. In late November, the market was very light. Many manufacturers threw out a large quantity of preferential sales promotion policies. The discount rate was 500 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, and entered the December. As the price of raw materials increased, the price of polyester cotton yarn was gradually restored, but there were still many gaps compared with the price at the beginning of October.

During the fourth quarter, the price of polyester cotton cloth also slipped down with the price of its polyester cotton yarn. For example, the price of T65/C35 45S x 45S 110 * 7663 "polyester cotton grey cloth" was 5.9 yuan / meter in early October, and then dropped to 5.5 yuan / meter in December, a decrease of 0.4 yuan / meter, a decrease of 6.8%.

　 Changes in price difference between polyester cotton and polyester cotton yarn since the Spring Festival of 2011

Note: the price difference (area area) in the picture = the price of polyester cotton yarn - (20~25 days ahead of time, polyester and short price is * 1.03 * 0.65+ 25 days ahead, cotton price * 1.08 * 0.35).

[cotton] the lowest price difference in early December was 1000 yuan / ton, and the highest price difference at the end of December was 4000 yuan / ton.

Compared with pure cotton and polyester cotton, the price fluctuation of cotton products in the fourth quarter of 2011 is more obvious, especially the viscose staple fiber price drop is as high as 20%. In the three quarter of 2011, viscose products were better than pure cotton and polyester cotton products. The difference between the cost of raw cotton yarn and raw material cost in the four seasons deteriorated significantly compared with the two or three quarter. The difference was the lowest in early December, and it was only 1000 yuan / ton. At the end of December, the maximum time was less than 4000 yuan per ton.

　　 Price changes of cotton yarn and fabric in the four seasons of 2011

The average price of 1.5D * 38mm viscose staple decreased from 19700 yuan / ton in early October to 15600 yuan / ton in early December, which dropped by 4100 yuan / ton, or 20.8%. In the middle of 12, it rebounded again, from the end of December to 15950 yuan / ton, a slight rise of 350 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.2%.

Downstream cotton yarn closely followed viscose staple fiber, also appeared first big drop and small rise. For example, the price of R30S cotton yarn at the beginning of October was 24200 yuan / ton, which slipped to 19800 yuan / ton in the middle and December, and the rate dropped to 18.2%. After pushing up the cost of raw materials, it rose to around 20000 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan / ton, or 1%.

The price fluctuation of viscose staple fiber and cotton yarn has affected the price of cotton cloth. The average price of R30S * R30S 68 * 6863 "grey cloth" was 5.93 yuan / m in early October. After that, the price of cotton yarn dropped to 5.45 yuan / meter in mid December, with a drop of 8.1%. In the latter half of December, the price of cotton yarn rebounded slightly, rising by 0.05 yuan to 5.5 yuan per meter. Because viscose staple fiber prices fluctuate drastically, the price difference between cotton yarn and raw material cost varies greatly in the four seasons.