Yu Wei: Value Added Tax Reform Sets Off Big Consumption

　　 outer disc On the other hand, the EU has reached a new capitalization agreement and China will provide a solution to the European debt crisis. financing The US stock was supported by the news, and US stocks closed up on Wednesday. Positive A shares opened. Today, the A shares belong to the smaller horizontal crosses, finishing 2435 points throughout the day. The longer line of the shadow line shows the same awkward problem as the previous few days. After the overfall and rebound, it will require more power to hold the upper plate, but the amount can not support further. Strong The Shanghai Stock Exchange has a unilateral turnover of 75 billion 100 million.

We can analyze the relative bottom form of the stock market from the perspective of forming a bull market. Technically speaking, it now forms a typical double bottom support and resonates with the bottom of the previous 2317 points. Taking into account the adverse factors of the stock market, there are more capital side actions such as inflation, expansion and capital extraction. If we look at another point of view, according to the law of conversion cycle of bull and bear market, the starting point of bull market needs three main factors, that is, the resonance of the economic fundamentals, capital sides and the stock price center. This requires the market to see the lowest point after 3-6 months, similar to the bear bull conversion at the bottom of 998 points for 6 months, and the bear bull conversion at the bottom of 1664 points for 3 months. From the above three points of view, the author mentioned yesterday that the real bottom of the market needs to be in the first quarter of next year, that is, when the market is stimulated by the annual report and the most abundant capital at the beginning of the year, the real bottom and bull market are expected to emerge. Of course, due to the current expansion of the market leading to the rise and fall of the index and can not fully reflect the real and accurate situation of stocks, which also involves weight drag or amplification factors, so at this time still has the opportunity to layout. Because the 2300-2400 point line, before the market is more vacuum, so overshoot rebound force is sufficient, especially in the short line of the bottom of the funds, and at the 2400-2500 point there is a downward trend line obstruction, there will be more obvious above 2500 points platform and hold up area, so the upward trend is necessary to solve the problem of locking chips, and easily lead to differences in funds. Individual stocks may form weight, index, small cap stocks and stocks, and there will be a turn upward trend, and market sentiment will have a turn of activity. Sustained energy consumption is crucial for the fourth quarter's bottom up.

The rise of the disk today is inseparable from the stimulus of a message, that is, the pilot project in Shanghai. Value added tax This reform will change the burden of tax burden and duplication imposed by the business tax, which will reduce the burden of tax burden on enterprises. It also means that the modern service industry is expected to enter the era of comprehensive tax reduction. The implementation of the reform is conducive to the rise of the big consumer industry and to provide assistance for economic transformation. A shares related services industry is expected to benefit for a long time. Thanks to the upgrading of consumption, this year's ultra high end and high-end liquor have a beautiful performance. During the two-day period, the demand for super high-end liquor is strong and the supply of goods is tight. It is predicted that 2010-2012 years will be another golden three years for the liquor industry to get excess returns. It will focus on stocks such as the Yanghe River stock, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Zhangyu A, Luzhou Laojiao, Shuanghui development, Gujing Gong liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu and gold seed wine. These large consumer stocks represented by liquor have been released in the adjustment of the current round of decline and raised their margin of safety.