A Shares Lose 2400 Points &Nbsp; Funds Are Not Easy To Sell.

Internal and external troubles make A shares "future" worrying.

Due to economic downturn and corporate profits Slide downward Inevitably, the policy is in a tight stage and the stock market performs poorly. Many fund managers expect a considerable downside risk in the market outlook. A relatively optimistic view is that there will be a small rebound in October, but the rebound force will not be too strong.

"For now, in the short term A shares It will be affected by the pessimism of the peripheral market, the main reason is that the market itself has not been properly resolved. Ji Hongtao, general manager of Penghua Fund Research Department, judged that although A shares are already in the relative bottom area, "the market will continue to bottom down in the short term."

　　 Aftermarket Risks remain

In September, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, and has been under the warning line 50 for 3 consecutive months. We can confirm that China's economic slowdown is a definite matter. "The most pressing situation this year is the credit crunch of the entire bank. In the short term, liquidity has become a big problem," said Wang Yan, manager of Yuzhou strategy and Yuyang fund.

At the same time, this year, the amount of refinancing raised by the private placement of listed companies has set a new historical record. According to Wind statistics, as of September 22, 2011, 124 listed companies had implemented private placement this year, and the total raised funds amounted to 326 billion 523 million yuan, up 87.55% from the same period last year. And plans for private placement have not yet been implemented, raising funds of more than 580 billion yuan.

Wang Yan said: "at present, the A share market is low in innovation and weak and hard to return. There is not enough market capital, and large-scale refinancing will create a sustained pressure on the market." At the same time, the assessment at the end of the three quarter and the transfer of the second part of the deposit rate were enlarged, and the capital side was tightened again.

The pressure from the external market is another heavy pressure on A shares. Some fund managers even regard the European debt crisis as the second stage of the financial crisis. What is worse is that if the European debt crisis breaks out, China can cope with limited space. Because China and the world are facing the same problem, the pressure of financial revenue is very large, and there is limited space for fiscal policy adjustment.

"In response to external factors, the Chinese government has no way to continue to expand its liabilities. Because there are few domestic funds available, there is little room for expansion in fiscal and monetary policies. Moreover, the government has to consider how to face a bigger risk. The renminbi will appreciate now and whether it will depreciate in the future. Wei Fengchun, general manager of the general strategy Department of Boshi fund, said, "although monetary policy still has room for adjustment, marginal adjustment is only a breathing space for the market." Therefore, "in the future, it is hard to see that there will be a marked increase in the market."

Do not kill or sink.

In the market competition around the 2400 points, because the expected market outlook is more likely to fall, the operation of most funds is prudent and steady. It is also prudent to copy the base on the basis of unwillingness to kill and sell. The main reason is to make bottom-up structural fine-tuning and stock selection.

From the fund position, as of September 23rd, partial stock fund position is 79.44%, stock type and standard mixed type are 84.30% and 72.43% respectively, have been maintained for 3 weeks in the vicinity of historical average.

Ji Hongtao said that in the weak market, we should watch more and move less. The current strategy is to consider the proper allocation of defensive structures, and to exchange space for time to wait for the market turning point.

"If there is a clear downward trend in future inflation data, it will bring about an improvement in liquidity. The relaxation of monetary policy or the initiation of phased market is the opportunity for phased opening. However, he stressed that before the CPI data had not dropped significantly, it was pointless to discuss the inflection point of the market.

Liang Yongqiang, manager of China Merchants flourishing growth fund, said: "at present, the overall valuation of the market is in a low position, and the market risk has been released to a certain extent. Once the direction of industry is clear, the structural investment opportunities of the market will appear." Liang Yongqiang's operation layout is still based on the direction of industrial transformation, such as consumption, medicine and emerging industries.

However, UBS Securities latest research shows that: compared to 2008, only 6 industries in the 23 major sectors of A shares were lower than those at that time. In addition to the banking sector, earnings growth in other sectors is decreasing. Similarly, in addition to banks listed companies, whether it is small board, gem or motherboard, valuation is actually not low. "The future market will show a serious structural differentiation, because some stock valuations are relatively high, and there may still be some adjustment in the future." Ji Hongtao predicts.

Based on the fact that economic growth has gradually declined and inflation has been continuously strengthened, Wei Fengchun believes that the logic of investment also needs to conform to the trend. "Now the industry characteristics are no longer obvious, the future strategic layout must be heavy enterprise rather than industry." The integration of resources and mergers and acquisitions in the entire subdivision industry is a very clear trend.

Another reason for fund managers to operate cautiously is that they are waiting for policy changes.

A fund manager analysis: "the premise of policy adjustment is whether the inflation situation is down on schedule, and the two is whether the economy will have a hard landing." Therefore, we must focus on the adjustment and change of relevant policies before and after the central economic work conference. In addition, he judged, "if the growth of export and real estate industry is the same as that of 2009, then the tight policy may be loosened."