Purchasing And Storage Price Supports &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Are Expected To Stabilize Before The Spring Festival.

Dezhou is the last stop of this investigation. Texas Cotton industry The deputy secretary-general of the Association introduced the overall situation of the Dezhou producing area, analyzed the problems faced by the textile enterprises, and combined with the domestic and foreign supply and demand situation, made a prediction of the cotton production and marketing situation in 2011.

Dezhou is a traditional cotton producing area. The annual cotton planting area is 200 - 3 million mu, which has declined in recent years and maintained at 150-160 mu. At present, there are about 160 cotton processing enterprises in Dezhou, among which 400 are 80 tons, and 200 are 24. As of the end of July, there were 61 enterprises participating in public inspection in 2010 and 67 thousand and 200 tons of public inspection, accounting for 29.6% of the total.

Dezhou's cotton spinning and weaving industry is developed, and now owns more than scale textile. enterprise There are 415 employees and 99 thousand employees, including 247 cotton textile enterprises and 66 thousand employees. The spinning capacity of the city is 5 million spindles (including more than 140 in Xiajin county and 2 million spindles in spinning capacity), and its capacity is 1/7 in the whole province and 1/20 in the whole country. The annual cotton consumption in the whole city is about 450 thousand tons, while the cotton output in 2010 is only about 120 thousand tons. The contradiction between insufficient production and demand is even more prominent. Raw cotton needs to be purchased from other provinces and regions such as Xinjiang and abroad.

Textile enterprises face difficulties

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, said that last year was the best day for textile enterprises in the past ten years. Since the beginning of March this year, cotton prices have dropped sharply as cotton prices have declined sharply. Textile enterprises are operating very hard. In 5-7, 80% of the local small and medium sized cotton textile enterprises ceased production and limited production, and their difficulty was no less than the impact caused by the financial crisis in 2008. Since the end of August, cotton prices have improved as cotton prices have stabilized and picked up, and the shut-down enterprises have resumed work, but they are still in a slight deficit. state 。 After part of the cotton mill resumed, even if the wages increased, it was difficult to recruit workers. The overall operating rate was only 60-70%.

At present, textile enterprises still have great difficulties.

First, the cost of labor is rising. Dezhou's small and medium-sized textile enterprises employ mostly temporary farmers. The monthly salary of workers is 1200 yuan the year before last, and 1500 yuan last year is currently around 1900 yuan. Even if wages rise, it will be very difficult to recruit workers.

The two is financing difficulties and tight funds. Since last year, the central bank has repeatedly raised the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, banks are also "bad money", and interest rates for loans have been rising gradually. Many enterprises can only borrow money from private and other channels at high interest, which virtually increases the cost of production.

Three, the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in costs have led to export difficulties. Over the years, China's textile and garment industry has occupied the foreign market with low cost advantage, and has earned a lot of foreign exchange for the country. The rapid appreciation of the renminbi since last year is equivalent to continuously reducing the profit margins of export enterprises.

Labor costs rise, RMB appreciation, raw material prices fluctuate. loan The increase of interest rates has increased the operating cost of enterprises and affected the international competitiveness of textile enterprises. The advantages of China's textile industry, such as low labor costs, low raw material prices and low environmental costs, have ceased to exist.

It is estimated that the advantages of low cost of textile exports will gradually disappear in the next few years. The textile industry of some Southeast Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Vietnam will gradually rise. The capacity of China's textile industry will end more than ten years of rapid growth, and enter a stable period. After a few years, the capacity of the textile industry may decline, the product grades will be improved, the low-grade products will be eliminated, and the middle and low grade products will be spanferred to some low-cost countries in Southeast Asia.

Cotton prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the global cotton area will increase in 2011 and output will reach a record 26 million 770 thousand tons, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. The global demand is about 25 million tons, and the supply will be partially alleviated.

According to the China Cotton Association monitoring, in 2011, the total area of cotton planting in China was 80 million 180 thousand mu, which increased by 4.1% compared to the same caliber. In late 5-8, the climate of the whole country is more suitable for cotton growth. Although some areas are affected, the overall growth is good. The output is expected to be higher than the previous year, with a total output of 7 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the previous year. The demand for the whole country is about 10 million tons, and there are still nearly 2 million 700 thousand tons of consumption shortfall to be offset by imports.

China, like the United States, is not realistic enough to subsidize cotton farmers, so it will be difficult to grow cotton fields in the future. The area will be maintained at 7000-8000 mu, with a total output of 600-700 tons. The total demand will remain at 1000-1100 tons. The gap will exist for a long time, and large quantities of cotton will be imported every year.

Dezhou's cotton planting area is about 1 million 600 thousand mu this year, a slight increase over the previous year. In seven or eight, the weather is normal, which is very beneficial to cotton growth and boll opening. The yield and quality of seed cotton are better than that of last year. However, on September, 9-16 consecutive days of continuous rain and rainy weather had a great impact on cotton yield and quality. It is estimated that cotton production will drop by 5-10%, and it is expected to yield 470-480 Jin per mu. The quality of cotton is breaking down.

Cotton prices will not rise sharply

In March this year, the state put in storage. policy From September to the end of March next year, when the price of lint three is below 19800 yuan / ton, the state will purchase large quantities of cotton. When the cotton prices were rising and falling, the state introduced the policy of purchasing and storing. For the whole cotton industry chain, it not only protected the interests of cotton farmers, but also made the cotton market stable. Because of this policy, cotton prices no longer continue to decline in the near future.

Based on the above analysis, we can see that in 2011 the world's cotton production increased, cotton production increased in China, domestic textile business was still difficult, cotton consumption would be reduced, but the gap still reached nearly 3 million tons. The textile industry is in a difficult position. It does not support the sharp rise in cotton prices. It is impossible for cotton prices to fall sharply as a result of the purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan / ton. Therefore, it is expected that cotton prices will be stable before the Spring Festival.