Slump Or Short-Term Correction Of &Nbsp; Bull Market Is Hard To Say.

The bull market is hard to say.

Crash or short-term correction

Zhu Bin, director of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, believes that the bull market for commodities is not over.

In Zhu Bin's view, there are some background factors for the end of the bull market. He said commodity bull markets will end when the economic cycle shifts from overheating to recession. At present, China's economy is in an overheated stage while the US economy is at a recovery stage. Despite the twists and turns of the US economy, its direction is clear, and the probability of the two recession is very small. The US economy will lead to slow growth in Europe and the world economy, so "commodity bull market has not gone to the stage of qualitative change".

He further said that American economy In the absence of a full recovery, the Fed's actions have been very cautious. Loose monetary policy has not been tightened. Many countries are at a negative interest rate. Under such circumstances, it is too early to conclude that the commodity market will end the bull market.

However, some people in the industry expressed concern about the bull market. According to Zheng Zhiwei, general manager of Xingye futures research and development center, the foundation of the rise of commodities has been shaken, and the bull market has ended.

He believes that from the perspective of global economic development, the golden period of ten years has passed, the global economy is facing more risk points, and has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, "commodity prices have begun to turn." He analyzed that the root cause of commodity market Daniu was related to demand for commodities and resources in emerging countries. But at present, the market is worried about China's tight policy. China has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, and the strength of the labor force has gradually disappeared, which will constrain the sustained economic growth, so the market is worried about whether the Chinese economy will maintain rapid growth. The slowdown of China's economic growth, the change of mode and the implementation of tight monetary policy have shaken the foundation of commodity rising.

In Zhu Bin's view, commodities bull market There may be some unexpected factors to come to an end, but it is not likely to happen at the moment.

He said the probability of European debt crisis is not high. The fall in commodity prices is largely due to concerns about China's tightening monetary policy. Although China's economic growth is slowing down, the hard landing of the economy is unlikely. The US dollar index will rebound in the vicinity of 70, but there is no reason why it will continue to rise. It is still in a long-term depreciation channel, so there is no big reversal in the US dollar. It will be difficult to finish the bull market.

Crash or short-term correction

Talk about Bulk commodities Market, Ye Yanwu, director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, said "the structural bull market is over." Although the market for agricultural products (17.15, -0.35, -2.00%) is not optimistic, it can not be said that the bull market has ended. "An important indicator of the end of the bull market is the end of the bull market, but there is no sign of the end of the bull market. The last week's decline is only a short-term correction."

He said that commodities should be analyzed from multiple dimensions, and the most important factor affecting their prices is the macroeconomic situation. "Sudden economic success or bad will turn commodities into power, such as the 2008 financial crisis", but at present, China's economy is slowing down and the US economy is at a recovery stage.

Global liquidity is also an important factor affecting commodity prices. He believes that the world has reached the "Liquidity Dilemma". Although we believe that liquidity is still abundant, in fact, it has been gradually tightening up, for example, "China's liquidity has been very tense".

Governments' efforts to fight inflation are seen as another factor affecting commodity prices. He thought that because of the inconsistent attitude of governments to deal with inflation, commodity prices fluctuated, but at present, governments regard inflation as the main contradiction, and the intensity of tightening can be imagined.

Closer to the above point of view, Lin Hui, deputy director of the Futures Research Institute of Tung sin, said that the collapse of commodities last week meant the end of the stage rally, but it could not be said that the bull market of commodities was over.

In Lin Hui's view, the collapse last week basically eliminated the financial attributes of commodities, and gradually restored commodity pricing to the fundamentals of supply and demand. At present, the Chinese government takes measures to control inflation, but when the price of commodities is down, when it will transmit to CPI and PPI, this is the key to the problem.

Lin Hui believes that the 70 bottom of the US dollar index in 2008 is still valid. In the long run, the US dollar must be depreciated. In the short term, the commodity market will maintain a "volatile market". "The market must find a balance area for commodities. In this process, there will be fierce competition between the two sides." but finally, we must look at the world economy, especially the trend of the US economy.