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Multiple Benefits Support PTA Uplink

2011/2/28 15:08:00 47

After the Spring Festival, PTA looked for directions in the oscillation. In the end, due to the aggravation of inflation worries, the pressure of regulation and control, the unwinding of downstream demand and the drag on the continuous decline of cotton, last week, PTA entered the adjustment cycle as commodities fell from high.

However

PTA

The benefit factor on the basic side is greater than the margin factor, and the short-term adjustment will not change the PTA's mid-term rising pattern.

Upstream costs support obviously

Libya's turbulent situation has escalated and there are indications that the supply of crude oil is disrupted. U.S. crude oil futures in April rose to $103 a barrel in just a few trading days from 87 US dollars to 103 barrels per barrel for the first time in more than two years, or nearly 10%.

The unstable situation in the Middle East and the violence in some oil producing countries have become the main reason for the sharp rise in international oil prices, and the sharp rise in crude oil has played a supporting role in the downstream chemical products to a certain extent.

PTA

In the direct upstream PX market, after the Spring Festival, the price of PX maintained a good trend year by year, steadily rising, and the price continued to hit a new high.

Judging from the price difference between MX and PX, although the price of MX is also rising continuously, its growth is far less than that of PX. At present, the price of MX is about $1060 / ton Korea FOB, while PX price has broken through three, 1400, 1500 and 1600 US dollars in January. The price difference between PX and MX has continued to expand from 600 US dollars / ton in December to 600 US dollars / ton, which is far higher than the normal level of 180 US dollars / ton, and its production profit has risen sharply.

Although most of the domestic PX production units are running at full capacity, the market is still facing tight supply.

In terms of contracts, the Asian contract settlement in February was $1620 / tonne CFR in Asia, up 240 US dollars / ton over January.

On the whole, the high price of crude oil and the tight supply of itself make it possible for PX to maintain high operation. This also has a direct cost support for PTA prices.

PTA the settlement price is high and the income is stable.

Sinopec, Yisheng, Xiang Lu and other enterprises in February, the settlement price of 11950 yuan / ton, next month's pre payment price of 12000 yuan / ton, a 5 year high, but also boosted the spot market.

At present, the production cost of PX converted to PTA is near 9700 yuan / ton, the current spot price is about 11300 yuan / ton, and the profit of PTA factory is 1600 yuan / ton, which maintains a higher profit level.

Driven by such a high profit level, the overall load of PTA in China has been maintained at a high level of 99%, close to full load operation.

But considering that the new production capacity of polyester in the first half of this year is greater than that of the PTA plant and the maintenance plan for some devices is still available, the supply of PTA will still maintain a tight pattern in the first half of the year, thus supporting the price trend.

In terms of plant maintenance, a 1 million 600 thousand ton PTA plant in Southern China is scheduled to be overhauled for a week in March. A mainstream supplier in Zhejiang, a 600 thousand ton PTA plant, is scheduled to overhaul in March for 25 days. The other two sets of PTA installations plan to have a rest in April and May, and the contract will be halved. A set of 800 thousand tons of PTA installed in Ningbo will begin to be servicing for 5 days from the end of February.

Downstream into recovery phase

Polyester chips maintain oscillation trend, which is unstable by external situation and PTA

futures

The market continued to wait and see as the main reason, and the trading was slack.

Recently, due to high cost, cash flow losses and poor demand recovery, the domestic polyester load index fell slightly to 82.4%.

Last week, after the introduction of the polyester raw material settlement price, supported by the high cost, the downstream weaving factories were short stocked, and the production and sale rate of polyester filament in mainstream factories rose. The price of polyester filament in some factories increased by 100 - 200 yuan / ton.

The opening rate of major weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has picked up, rising from 30% at the beginning of the year to 65%, and the downstream market is in the recovery stage.

To sum up, the high price of upstream crude oil and PX has the most direct cost support for PTA, and the tight supply of PTA itself is also conducive to higher prices. Although the downstream demand has not yet been fully opened, with the advent of the spring peak consumption season in March, the demand side improvement is only a matter of time.

The recent trend of PTA is the callback of the upward trend since last December, and the short-term adjustment will not change the trend of the upward trend when the fundamentals are basically favorable.