Inflation Helps Tax Growth

In 1-9 months, the total revenue of the whole country was 6 trillion and 303 billion 951 million yuan, an increase of 1 trillion and 152 billion 64 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 22.4%.

The Ministry of Finance said that the rise in price levels this year is one of the main reasons for the increase in fiscal revenue in the first three quarters.

Zhang Deyong, a researcher at the finance and Trade Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the fiscal revenue was calculated at current prices. Its growth rate reflected nominal increment instead of real increment, and the price rose rapidly.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics last month, CPI (residents, August)

For the fourth quarter of this year's fiscal revenue situation, the Ministry of finance analysis, affected by the slowdown in economic growth and the continued increase in the income base in the same period in 2009, the cumulative growth of fiscal revenue will drop month by month.

"The current inflation pressure is short of sustained strength. The rising price of the previous stage is closely related to the price of agricultural products, but with the harvest of autumn crops, inflation will reduce the impact on fiscal revenue."

Li Jianwei said.

Zhang Bin, a researcher at the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted in the "China fiscal policy report 2010/2011" that the growth of China's tax revenue will continue to be slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP during the "12th Five-Year" period, but it is difficult to maintain the super high growth rate in the past.

According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, the national fiscal revenue increased by 28.8% in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period in 2008, and the average annual growth rate was 13.5% over the two years, slightly higher than the GDP growth rate for two years.

"Our forecast for economic growth in 2011 is 9.5%."

Li Jianwei believes that the corresponding tax growth rate should be higher than this level.

Jia Kang, director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, told our reporter that the increase in prices only contributed part of the fiscal revenue increment, and the more important factor was the continuous improvement of the macroeconomic situation.

"Before the market worried that the second half of this year there will be a callback of economic growth, but the callback did not appear."

Jia Kang said.

The Ministry of finance also analyzed the relatively rapid economic recovery, especially the rapid growth of some related economic indicators, which led to a relatively rapid increase in the income of related taxes.

Due to the sharp decline in general trade imports during the same period last year and the rapid recovery of imports this year, the tax revenue growth in import links has increased.

In the first three quarters of this year, value-added tax and consumption tax on imports increased by 44.2% compared to the same period last year, and tariffs increased by 47.6% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the growth rate of vehicle purchase tax has reached 54.5%.

This is mainly due to the rapid growth of vehicle sales and the impact of the reduction of vehicle purchase tax on the small displacement passenger cars starting this year.

However, there is no obvious increase in taxes reflecting industrial manufacturing.

In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic value-added tax was 1 trillion and 532 billion 563 million yuan, an increase of 12.1% over the previous year, which is slightly lower than that in the first half of the year.

Business tax increased by 12.8% in the third quarter, compared with the 33.4% growth rate in the first half of this year.

Market participants believe that the increase in government energy conservation and emission reduction in the third quarter has played a certain stabilizing effect on the industrial growth rate; the Ministry of finance has analyzed that the reason for the growth of business tax deceleration is mainly due to the recent decline in the real estate market volume.

According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, the national fiscal expenditure in September was 846 billion 904 million yuan, an increase of 28.8% over the same period last year, down from the growth rate in August, of which the central level expenditure dropped by 0.3% over the same period last year.

According to Li Jianwei's experience, the annual financial expenditure will be adjusted according to the economic situation at that time. As the economic growth slows down at the end of the year, the fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter should increase.

Zhang Deyong said that the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure in financial expenditure will continue to increase.

In the first three quarters of this year, the national medical and health expenditure and housing security expenditure increased by 29% and 24.8% respectively.