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In June, The Total Export Volume Of Textiles And Clothing Was 18 Billion 665 Million US Dollars.

2010/7/17 12:28:00 45

Event:

In June, the total export volume of textile and clothing was 18 billion 665 million US dollars, up by 33.83% over the same period last year.

According to the classification, textile exports increased by 44.43% compared to the same period last year, and clothing exports increased by 28.07% over the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, textile and garment exports increased by 22.09%, while textile and clothing exports increased by 32.36% and 16.07% respectively.

Comment:

June

Exit

Rapid growth does not have sustainability.

Although export growth exceeded most people's expectations in June, we believe that the sustainability is not strong. The main reasons are as follows: 1. The appreciation of the second half of the RMB exchange rate reform is expected to be strengthened again. In order to reduce exchange losses, the impetus for enterprises to exportate products has been enhanced.

2, raw material prices and labor costs continue to rise, constantly squeezing the profitability of export enterprises.

Facing the high cost, the low cost advantage of the Chinese market is not obvious enough, and textile orders are gradually showing signs of pferring to Southeast Asian countries.

3, the increase in garment exports is mainly due to the recovery of demand in developed countries and the continuous improvement of the textile and clothing retail industry.

American Apparel

retail

The inventory sales ratio has reached a historical low. From the data of clothing export to the US market, we think that enterprises also have the possibility of replenishment.

Although the US unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% in June, the lowest level since August of 09, there is still a great distance from the normal level.

In May, the EU unemployment rate climbed to 10% under the influence of the European debt crisis, the highest level in history.

Japan's unemployment rate rose third in May, reaching 5.2%.

Therefore, the recovery of demand in developed countries is very fragile, and the possibility of another decline in the second half is not ruled out.

Investment advice.

In the first half of the year, the textile and garment sector was fourth in all sectors, with excellent performance, mainly because of strong rebound in domestic and export data, coupled with continuous improvement in corporate profitability and less influence by macroeconomic regulation, and strong defensive nature.

We believe that the key to deciding when to invest in the spinning and weaving sector is to accurately judge the inflection point of the industry data, such as the continuous improvement of export data since the beginning of this year and the re strengthening of the expected appreciation of RMB after the June reform.

But more importantly, we have been emphasizing that the spinning and weaving board is more suitable for "bottom up" investment logic.

From the last year's annual strategy, we recommend the good bird to the home textile board strongly recommended since May, which confirms this logic.

At present, we believe that there are still some investment opportunities in the home textile sector before and after the disclosure.

Brand clothing such as wedding birds and seven wolves can also be held.

Weixing shares and hang min shares have advantages in valuation.

The core technology of Shandong Ruyi, we believe that it belongs to the high growth stocks being wrongly killed, the current time can be actively involved.

Risk warning.

RMB appreciation; labor cost

continue high

The price of raw materials fluctuated, and the recovery of external demand was slow.