Development Forecast Of Nonwovens And Industrial Fibers In India

According to a recent report from Japan's overseas express, researchers from the University of Texas Technology University have summarized the long-term prediction of India nonwovens and industrial fibers.

Unless the weaving industry expands rapidly with the development of economy and wages in 2035, the growth rate of the industry fiber industry in the next 20 years will also be higher than that of developed countries such as Europe and America.

This paper mainly introduces the demand forecast of nonwovens and industrial fibers in India, and compares with the development of developed countries such as the United States.

1, the current economic situation in India

The growth rate of GDP in India has increased by more than 8% in recent years. In 2007, it increased by 9.4% over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2008, it is also a high growth rate of 8% to 9%.

According to Goldman and Sax, the economic scale of India becoming BRICs will surpass that of Europe and Japan in 2030, and will be higher than that of the United States in 2045.

Final consumption will grow at an annual rate of over 5% due to the expansion of retail sales.

In 1991, India introduced the new industrial policy and began the policy of economic liberalization.

Since then, the economy of India has expanded smoothly and the middle income class has increased.

India, with more than 1 billion people, has more than 300 million of the middle-income class, expecting the increase of this class to expand consumption.

In the Eleventh Five Year Plan (April 2007 to March 2012), India has focused on the growth of agriculture, manufacturing and services. In the field of fiber, according to the application of National Planning Council, the Ministry of fiber industry of India focused on Nonwovens and industrial fibers.

The eleventh five year plan has a budget of $170 million for industrial fiber.

Such government support measures are expected to make great changes in the field of fiber industry such as nonwovens and other industries.

2. Forecast of India nonwovens consumption (2007~2050 years)

Due to the change of consumption activities, the consumption of disposable textiles and disposable commodities will expand in India.

Moreover, the government is strengthening infrastructure such as highways and bridges, forecasting civil related nonwovens and industrial use.

Demand for fiber has also increased significantly.

Many experts pointed out the correlation between the per capita consumption of nonwoven fabric and wage level.

The world bank information is forecast as follows:

The average GDP per capita in 2007 was US $45 thousand and 817, while India was US $946.

Based on this, India's per capita nonwovens consumption is now 80g.

Based on the growth rate of 2003~2007 years, it is assumed that the average economic growth rate in 2005~2050 years is 4.6% in the United States and 13.27% in India. The growth rate of per capita GDP in the two countries is regarded as the growth rate of nonwoven consumption, and the results are as follows.

To reach the level of 3 to 3.5kg of nonwoven consumption equal to that of Europe and the United States, it is predicted that by 2035, the amount of per capita nonwoven consumption in developed countries will exceed 3kg for 40 years, while India will reach the same level in about 30 years.

Table 1 forecast of per capita GDP and nonwovens consumption in India and the United States