Market Analysis: Understand The Trend Of Textile Market At Home And Abroad Last Week

Last week, part of the domestic textile market orders increased slightly, downstream enterprises for raw materials inquiry enthusiasm increased, but due to the overall gloomy situation of consumption and supply pressure, domestic cotton prices showed a slight upward trend, and the average price of cotton futures was lower than that of the previous week. From August 22 to 26, 2022, the average price of national cotton price B index representing the market price of standard grade lint in the mainland is 15985 yuan / ton, which is 11 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous week, or 0.1%. The average settlement price of main cotton futures contracts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 15003 yuan / ton, down 228 yuan / ton or 1.5% from the previous week.

Last week, the risks of global economic downturn increased, and the new cotton listing in the northern hemisphere was imminent. The drought in the United States was alleviated, and the rebound was weak after the international cotton price fell. The average price of cotton futures was lower than that of the previous week. From August 22 to August 26, 2022, the average settlement price of Cotton Futures (ice) main contracts in the Intercontinental Exchange of America was 113.88 cents / pound, down 0.66 cents / pound or 0.6% compared with the previous week; The average price of international cotton index (m), representing the average CIF price of imported cotton in China's main ports, was 135.7 cents / pound, up 0.12 cents / pound or 0.1% over the previous week. The import cost of RMB 22247 yuan / ton (calculated by 1% tariff, including port miscellaneous and freight), increased by 47 yuan / ton or 0.2% compared with the previous week. The international cotton price is 6263 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic cotton price, and the price difference is 37 yuan / ton larger than that of the previous week, and the upside down range of internal and external cotton price difference has reached a new high since 2011.

Last week, the reserve cotton ship was listed for purchase of 30000 tons, and there was no transaction.

Domestic cotton yarn prices fell again, foreign yarn prices rose slightly

Last week, the opening rate of the textile market increased slightly, the order demand improved slightly, the overall situation was still weak, domestic cotton yarn prices rose briefly and fell again. External yarn market demand continued to be depressed, with the fall of cotton raw material prices, external yarn prices from up to stable. At present, the price of conventional yarn is higher than that of domestic yarn by 3825 yuan / ton. Domestic cotton market demand is still weak, cotton prices continue to decline. Staple fiber price goes down.

Global consumption continued to be gloomy, new cotton in northern India was listed, and the international cotton price was weak. Recently, the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank show that the risk of long-term inflation anchoring caused by sustained high inflation is increasing. A number of Fed officials continue to stress further interest rate hikes until inflation is squeezed out of the economy. In terms of cotton market, recently, the United States cotton region generally ushered in rainfall, alleviating drought weather and promoting the growth of new cotton. According to foreign reports on August 22, the first batch of new cotton has been picked in parwa area of northern India, which is much earlier than previous years. At present, new cotton has not been affected by adverse weather.

From the downstream point of view, Southeast Asia textile production and marketing situation continued to decline, terminal clothing and other consumption situation has not improved. In July 2022, Pakistan exported 1.48 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing, down 13.2% month on month; Retail sales of clothing stores in the United States were $25.89 billion, down 0.6% from last month. According to the latest indicators of the WTO, the growth of Global trade in goods slowed down in the second quarter and is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. In the short term, the overseas inflation pressure has not eased, the global economic downturn risk is rising, and the textile market consumption continues to be gloomy. With the gradual promotion of new cotton listing in the northern hemisphere, it is expected that the international cotton price will be mainly weak.

New cotton is coming into the market, and the decline of textile market is slightly improved. On August 24, the standing meeting of the State Council pointed out that the current economic recovery and development continued, but there were small fluctuations and the recovery foundation was not solid; In addition, we will deploy successive policies and measures to stabilize the economy and keep it in a reasonable range. In terms of cotton market, 2021 is coming to an end. As of August 25, 2022, the national cotton sales volume in 2021 will be 50000 tons, an increase of 25.0% month on month; The cumulative sales progress was 68.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.0%. The remaining 1.812 million tons of cotton will be carried forward to the new year in 2021.

As the harvest time of hand picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is approaching in 2022, some ginning plants plan to start weighing before the middle of September. Considering the lessons of the previous year's rush to harvest, it is expected that most of the ginning plants will mainly wait and see and slowly open the scales. The improvement signs of the downstream textile market need to be observed. Some enterprises have reported that orders have increased in the near future. According to the current purchase price of raw materials, the profit situation of textile enterprises has improved. The current inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased, and the pressure of high-temperature power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly eased, and some enterprises have tentatively increased the start-up rate. In the short term, the new cotton will be listed soon, and the decline of the textile market shows signs of slight improvement. The enterprises are still in the exploratory stage of investigation. It is expected that the domestic cotton market will be cautious and wait-and-see.