Forecast Of The Performance Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2021

Investment tips for the current period:

Textile and clothing retail recovered strongly, exceeding the level of 19 years before the epidemic. 1) It has been more than 19 years, and the growth rate is remarkable.

From January to May of the 21st year, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear above the quota increased by 39.1% to 556.8 billion yuan, exceeding 545.9 billion yuan in the same period of 2019. 2) The trend of e-commerce in the consumer market continues, and online retail maintains a double-digit growth. Although the proportion of online shopping of physical goods decreased by 1.7 PCT to 22.6% compared with the same period of 20 years, the absolute amount of physical goods remained unchanged, with a year-on-year growth of 19.9%, among which online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 28.2%. 3) In June, the decline of e-commerce data narrowed year-on-year, and the dominant pattern of online leading brands was significant. 618 greatly promoted the centralized release of online clothing consumption demand suppressed in the early stage. According to the tracking data of Taotao, the turnover of men's / women's / children's clothing online in June was - 8.3% / - 7.3% / + 4.2% year-on-year; In contrast, the turnover of Hailan home in June was 110 million yuan, exceeding the sum of April and may, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; In June, the turnover of all brands of Xinhe shares was 91.76 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.7%.

In the post epidemic era, many factors promote the prosperity of the industry. 1) The crisis cleared the tail companies, leading concentration continued to improve. In the past 20 years, CR10 (according to the company's caliber) of China's sportswear / men's wear / women's wear / children's wear retail market was 84% / 23% / 10% / 16%, which was higher than that in 19 years. Among them, the share of the top leaders in each industry segment increased the fastest, and the strong ones were always strong. 2) With the increasing confidence of domestic products, national sports and high-end clothing brands are taking the lead in recovering positive growth. At the end of March, the follow-up effect of H & M's boycott of Xinjiang cotton was obvious, the enthusiasm of domestic products consumption was high, and the potential of brand was enhanced, which jointly promoted the achievement of high growth. 3) The new mode of online live e-commerce is emerging, and the proportion of e-commerce revenue is increasing year by year. Under the background of the epidemic situation, part of the offline sales demand of the public has shifted to the online market, and the medium and high-end brands have been forced to use the e-commerce channel, prompting the head company's e-commerce revenue share to reach a new high. 4) The inflection point of inventory in the whole industry has been shown, and we will go to battle with light equipment after the epidemic. The off-line recovery took over the online boom. The inventory of the whole industry improved rapidly in the second half of the 20th year, and the inventory turnover rate of the leading companies in the first half of the 21st year generally continued to be at a high level.

Sports industry chain: 1) Anta Sports: it is predicted that the net profit of 21h1 will increase by no less than 110% compared with the same period of 20 years and 40% in 19 years. 2) Li Ning: it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21h1 will not be less than 1.8 billion yuan, with an increase of no less than 163% in 20 years and 126% in 19 years. 3) Huali group: the largest customer, Nike, released its performance in fiscal year 21, which greatly exceeded expectations. The global leader of sports shoes ODM benefited from the shortage of supply in the industry. 21q2 performance is expected to continue the high growth rate of Q1. Considering the exchange rate factor, it is estimated that the net profit of 21h1 attributable to the parent company will grow by 30-35% year on year.

Medium and high-end clothing: 1) biyinlefen: products, brands and channels are all excellent. The net profit of 21h1 is expected to be 230-250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45% - 55%. 2) Xinhe shares: the three-year reform is about to take effect, and digitalization brings about an inflection point of efficiency. After 20 years of listing, it has stepped into a high growth channel. It is estimated that the net profit of 21h1 attributable to the parent company will exceed 20 years, with a year-on-year increase of 143%. 3) Desu fashion: benefited from the improvement of the same store's benefit, the revenue of 21q2 increased by 20% - 30% year on year. It is estimated that the net profit of 21h1 attributable to the parent company was 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38%.

Mass clothing and home textile: 1) Hailan home: since May, the growth rate of terminal retail in a single month has turned positive year-on-year in 19 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent in 21h1 is still lower than that in the same period of 19 years, and the single quarter profit of 21q3 is expected to resume growth year on year. 2) SEMAR clothing: the gap between January and June in terms of the gap between the end stream and the 19 year period has narrowed to the middle single digit. In June, the double brand online has maintained a growth year-on-year, and the net profit of 21h1 is expected to be 650 million yuan. 3) Taipingniao: timely grasp the opportunity of the rise of new e-commerce channels and directly touch the younger brand customers. It is estimated that the net profit of 21h1 will be 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215%. 4) Life of Raleigh:

The leading domestic textile industry continued to grow, with an estimated net profit of 260 million yuan to the parent company in 21h1, a growth rate of more than 20% over the same period of 19 years.

Industry views and investment suggestions: 21h1 fulfilled the judgment at the beginning of the year, and the textile and clothing sector is deducting "high performance elasticity and low value regression"

Davis double-click the market. In the second half of this year, we should grasp the main line of prosperity: 1) sports industry chain with high terminal demand: Anta sports and Huali group are recommended, and Li Ning and Tebu international are recommended; 2) Middle and high-end clothing with rising brand potential: recommend Xinhe shares, biyinlefen and Dishu fashion, and pay attention to Jinhong group; 3) National brands with high public recognition: taipingniao, Hailan home, SEMA clothing and rolai life are recommended, and the news bird is recommended; 4) Textile manufacturing leader benefiting from upstream price rise: it is suggested to pay attention to Xinao shares, a leading wool worsted enterprise in the world, and Blum Oriental, the global leader in color spinning.

Risk tips: Xinguan epidemic situation repeated, offline retail pressure again; The growth rate of residents' income slowed down, and the willingness of optional consumption declined.