After The Spring Festival, Domestic And Foreign Cotton And Cotton Yarn Prices Rose.

During the Spring Festival, the price of international cotton and cotton yarns increased considerably. After the Spring Festival, the price of cotton and cotton blended at home and abroad rose sharply, and the internal and external spreads narrowed.

The domestic economy is running smoothly.

In January, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 51.3%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of last month, and continued to expand steadily. Production, new orders and raw material purchase price index fell, new import and export orders and stock index increased. Before and after the Spring Festival, the central bank adjusted the interest rate of various policy operations, such as medium term lending facility (MLF), standing loan convenience (SLF), reverse repurchase, and so on, pmitting risk prevention to the market.

The signal is expected.

1. Price trend

(1) cotton prices

During the Spring Festival, international cotton prices rose sharply. After the Spring Festival, international cotton prices continued to rise. Domestic futures rose and spot prices rose.

(see Table 1)

(two) price of cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber

After the Spring Festival, the price of domestic cotton yarn continued to rise slightly, the price of polyester staple fiber was rising, the price of international cotton yarn continued to rise, the price of cotton yarn in India and Vietnam increased significantly, and the price of cotton yarn in Indonesia and Pakistan was relatively stable (see Table 2).

(three) price difference

1, the difference between cotton price inside and outside is narrowed obviously.

In February 4th, the import cost of the international cotton index (M) was RMB 15481 yuan / ton (1% customs duties, customs rates, the same below), lower than the domestic standard of 354 yuan / ton, the price difference narrowed 627 yuan / ton last week, the cost of import of S-6 cotton in India was 14357 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic standard 1478 yuan / ton, the price difference narrowed 248 yuan / ton last week, the import cost of Pakistan standard grade cotton discount RMB was 13928 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic standard 1907 yuan / ton, and the price difference narrowed 181 yuan / ton last week.

2, inside and outside

The overall price difference has narrowed, and the price of India cotton yarn has been slightly higher than that of domestic cotton yarn.

In February 4th, Vietnam's C32S combs were 22691 yuan / ton (the cost of import RMB discount, the same below), which was 609 yuan / ton lower than that of China's domestic C32S combs, and the price difference narrowed 56 yuan / ton compared with last week. India C32S combs 23304 yuan / ton, 4 yuan / ton higher than China's domestic C32S combs, the price difference narrowed 142 yuan / ton last week, and Indonesia's C32S combs 22610 yuan / ton, 690 yuan / ton lower than China's domestic C32S combs, and the price difference expanded by 25 yuan / ton last week.

3, the domestic yarn cotton price difference narrowed, polyester cotton spreads widened.

This week, the difference between domestic yarn and cotton price was 7465 yuan / ton (C32S combed -328B cotton price), which was reduced by 183 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between polyester and cotton price was 7435 yuan / ton (328B cotton price - polyester staple fiber price), 58 yuan / ton more than last week.

Two. Fundamentals

After the Spring Festival, domestic cotton prices generally rose as a result of the rise of international cotton prices.

The core price of seed cotton rose by 0.05-0.06 yuan / kg before the Spring Festival, and the spot price of lint rose 300-400 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.

After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises are confident of returning to work, and the price of cotton yarn is raised by 150-200 yuan / ton. Considering the recent rise of international cotton prices, the reserve price will be higher than expected. Spinning enterprises plan to purchase a certain amount of Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton in order to prevent cotton from being badly needed.

During the Spring Festival, the overall price of international cotton increased substantially.

As of January 26th, the total sales volume of US cotton contracted in 2016/17 reached 2 million 312 thousand tons, an increase of 930 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 67%. The average price of M grade spot in the seven largest markets in the United States rose 0.70 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

ICAC2 monthly forecast to reduce 2016/17 cotton production and India Pakistan cotton prices further rise.

The PMI index of the US, Europe and Japan rose, and the euro area's economic growth was obvious.

In January, the PMI index of manufacturing industry in the US, eurozone and Japan increased by 1.5, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The Fed, the British and Japanese central bank issued a statement to maintain the original interest rate unchanged; in January, the number of new non farm workers in the United States increased by 227 thousand, far exceeding the expected rate of 175 thousand; the fourth quarter GDP of the euro area was 1.8%, and the 2016 annual growth rate exceeded the US for the first time since 2008.

To sum up, on the international side, the new cotton market in India is slowing down, and the volume of US cotton exports has increased continuously. It is expected that the international cotton prices will continue to rise in the short term or continue to rise. The domestic cotton market is expected to rise in recent years, but the textile enterprises are gradually recovering from the rising cotton prices.

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