Guo Shiliang: A Shares Are Bad For Americans?

New York crude oil price fell below 80 US dollars, hit a 28 month low; European and American stock markets plummeted, and the cumulative decline was the highest in the near future. However, at the same time, some of the currencies dominated by the US dollar continued to strengthen as a result of the risk aversion caused by the stock market crash.

Generally speaking, the stock market is a barometer of the economy. This barometer function is more obvious in European and American stock markets. In view of the recent slump in European and US stock markets, more investors believe that it is mainly derived from the recent worsening economic data.

On the one hand, the ZEW economic index of the euro area in October was only 4.1, much lower than the previous value of 14.2. In addition, German authorities also take a negative view of the local economic growth and predict that Germany's economic growth may be lower than the previous estimate of 1.8%. On the other hand, low inflation in the US, industrial production and retail sales also aggravated the market panic.

Obviously, the bad expectations of European and American economies have dealt a heavy blow to the stock market in Europe and the United States. At the same time, the stock market in major regions of the world is also deeply affected.

Among them, the Hongkong stock market, which is closely related to the mainland market, has also seen a big decline. Since the beginning of September, the cumulative decline of Hong Kong stock market has reached 8%, and the largest drop in space has reached 3000 points.

However, to the surprise of global investors, the A share market has not been significantly affected by the fact that the global stock market is a bit green.

Indeed, since the beginning of July, the performance of the A share market has been significantly stronger than that of the major stock markets in the world, and the largest increase has exceeded 15% during the period.

Some commentators believe that the continued strengthening of A shares is essentially a powerful and positive role of Shanghai and Hong Kong. In addition, there are comments that, after 5 years of falling prices, the risk of A shares' downfall has basically been released and has gradually become a haven for global capital.

The so-called "public saying that public ownership is reasonable." However, for the author, the alternative strength of A shares has a deeper meaning.

The acceleration of RMB internationalization has become the focus of recent global attention.

In recent years, RMB has gradually developed from the trade settlement currencies of neighboring countries to regional investment currencies, and has gradually become an international reserve currency. This shows that the speed of RMB internationalization has accelerated significantly.

It is worth mentioning that the impact of RMB internationalization on the European region has reached a new height. Following the British authorities' confirmation of the issuance of RMB bonds and the issuance of treasury bonds as the foreign exchange reserves of the British authorities, in September 29th of this year, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced the direct trading of RMB against the euro in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, authorized by the people's Bank of China.

Obviously, the internationalization of RMB will deeply affect the European region, and its direct trading in the euro area will mean that the right of the renminbi to speak in the major mature countries of the world has been greatly improved, and China's international status has also been improved by leaps and bounds.

But, in RMB The wider influence of internationalization has indirectly weakened the dominant position of the US dollar in various countries in the world. Perhaps, for Americans, the acceleration of internationalization of the renminbi is a process of "gradual de dollarization".

On the one hand, China's international status has been greatly improved, and the international discourse power of RMB has also risen. On the other hand, some countries with ulterior motives have vigorously advocated the "China Threat Theory".

Recently, according to gross domestic product (purchasing power parity), China has surpassed the United States recently and become the world's largest economy. At the same time, it fully affirmed the achievements of China's past economic development. In addition, foreign media claim that China has broken the territory of Asian forces, and the "China Threat Theory" must arouse global vigilance.

In fact, there is a competition between countries called "killing and killing". Sometimes, the "hard touch" between the two countries can not effectively attack each other, but the clever use of "killing and killing" means to confuse the other side, but it can achieve twice the result with half the effort.

In the eyes of Americans, the "China Threat Theory" has long existed. With the rapid growth of China's economy and the rapid acceleration of RMB internationalization, China's discourse power on the world stage is no longer the same. Perhaps the Americans have long been alert to China and are more likely to design a large "chess game" waiting for China to come to the challenge.

The global economy has issued a red alert. Global stock market has experienced a continuous collapse, and crude oil prices have collapsed. This is a crisis that concerns the fate of all countries in the world. In fact, the deeper reason for the outbreak of the crisis is a global dispute over interests.

The global stock market is miserable, but A shares remain strong, which is a puzzle for global investors.

Shanghai and Hong Kong have become the biggest supporting factor for A shares? Or the excessive decline of the A shares in the early stage, which triggered the "global dominance" of A shares? In my opinion, these reasons are just the direct factors for the rise of A shares, and are not the fundamental reasons for Guo Shiliang's rise.

As mentioned above, China's international influence is rising, and the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the rapid upgrading of RMB discourse power have made China a highly alert target of the major developed countries in the world.

A global competition of interests will inevitably involve the economy and stock market. At present, China is in a sensitive period of economic transformation, and in the past, the mode of investment promoting economic growth has been questioned by the society. So far, in this critical period, domestic management decisions are somewhat careless, and fear will lead to the dilemma of "losing the whole game".

Obviously, China's economy To achieve smooth transformation, we must seek a brand new development mode. At this point, the positive impact of the stock market on economic transformation has attracted the attention of management.

　　 equity market A good development will solve the problem of direct financing for enterprises. If the stock market develops, it will further promote the development of the multi-level structure of the capital market, and then solve the financing problems for more enterprises. If the stock market develops, China's international image will greatly improve, and indirectly promote China's right to speak in the world. More importantly, the development of the stock market will increase the property income of the ordinary people. People's pockets will boost consumption, which in turn will stimulate production and win time and space for the great economic transformation.