Ye Tan: An Old Shareholder'S Expectation Of The Chairman Of The New CSRC

new CSRC Here comes the chairman. We warmly welcome this and look forward to the new President's new policy. We hope the new President will implement the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors. Here we put forward 10 expectations for the new chairman to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors.

1、 The affordability of the market should be fully considered when issuing new shares. The issuance and refinancing of new shares continue to speed up, and the expansion will lead to a serious lack of liquidity, which will certainly hurt the market.

2、 Combine small and large non reduction and refinancing. Strict restrictions reduce one's shares in a listed company Corporate refinancing, really financing The total amount of reduction shall be deducted from the approved financing amount.

3、 The resolution of the old third board problem should be put on the agenda as soon as possible. The CSRC should fulfill its original commitment, correctly and properly handle the remaining problems of the two networks and delisted listed companies, safeguard public rights and credibility, and protect the legitimate interests of the two networks and delisted shareholders!

4、 The problem of B shares has reached the point where it is necessary to solve it. Compared with the international board, this dollar denominated market is more internationalized, more in line with reducing foreign exchange liquidity pressure, and more recognized by overseas investors. Now it is a forgotten corner and has become a uncompleted residential building!

5、 Regulate the issuance and listing of listed companies. The punishment for false issuance of listed companies should be strengthened, and the responsibilities of intermediaries in the issuance of new shares should be increased. The investment of raised funds should conform to the development plan of the enterprise's main business and the commitment of the prospectus.

6、 Cracking down on insider trading.

7、 We will improve the delisting system.

8、 Enforce mandatory dividend distribution of listed companies. The main beneficiaries of the price difference in the primary and secondary markets are institutional investors, and the beneficiaries of dividends of listed companies are all investors.

9、 Asset restructuring and new share issuance shall be subject to unified standards.

10、 In terms of product provision, we are not eager to launch pure liquidity products that have nothing to do with resource allocation. ("Small retail investors who have invested in stocks for 19 years"/investment bulletin)

Will the Post Liu Mingkang Era Bank "untie"?

Liu Mingkang stepped down as Chairman of the CBRC. For many people trapped in the tight capital chain, this is a good news, while for those who regard bank risk as the lifeline, this is a major loss.

In the post financial crisis era, he forced banks to raise money again and again with harsh capital adequacy ratio due to his persistence in bank risk control, until the valuation of listed banks was brought to hell. Moreover, the CBRC has also established an effective regulatory system, including capital adequacy ratio, deposit loan ratio and other standards, so that future supervisors can follow this system. From this perspective, Liu Mingkang is a brave pathfinder (18.950, 0.32, 1.72%) and a pioneer of the system.

We have reason to be pleased to have a strict supervisor at the beginning of China's market-oriented banking reform. However, it is a pity that the de risking of the banking industry has not brought about the de risking of the economy and the financial industry. The rupture of the guarantee chain from northern Fujian to Zhengzhou and other places proves that the risk control of banks can not advance alone. When financial disintermediation, interest rate distortion and the virtualization of the real economy overlap, the low risk of banks becomes the epitome of the high risk of the financial and monetary market.

The author has heard that local officials and even bankers are strongly dissatisfied with the regulatory policy. They believe that the excessive supervision, regardless of the facts, has cut off the life of the local economy, making the banking industry fall into the dilemma of obtaining deposits at a disguised high interest rate and raising the loan interest rate.

Is this a failure of the supervisor? Not all of them. There is a huge gap between market-oriented risk management and non market-oriented financial formats, which can never be corrected by personal force. Liu Mingkang obviously doesn't think it is his task to bring grassroots finance into supervision. Indeed, it is not just Liu Mingkang's task. When Liu Mingkang himself perfectly constructed the Great Wall of risk of banks within the system, he has handed over the task of grassroots financial supervision and marketization to the next task. {page_break}

Zhou Kejing: Who Can Save 90% of Losing Shareholders

On the one hand, investors' ardent expectations of Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the CSRC; On the one hand, 90% of investors lost money in the first three quarters. Many people hope that Chairman Guo's new official can do something to save investors from losing 90% of their money from the third quarter to the whole year, but this column thinks that Chairman Guo may also have difficulties.

In fact, investors have long hoped that Chairman Shang can solve the expectation of Chairman Guo. The reason why it still exists in the wishes of investors today is that it is difficult to solve it temporarily. For example, how to delist the GEM? Although it has been more than two years since its inception, no one can say what is right or wrong. If the direct delisting is true, investors will suffer heavy losses. Is that what investors want? If the GEM is also provided with opportunities for restructuring, it will also be a good thing for ordinary investors who hold shares.

According to the authoritative survey results from China Securities Journal, 90% of respondents claimed their investment losses in the first three quarters of this year; Among the loss shareholders, 24.87% of them lost more than 50%. This column believes that 90% of shareholders' losses in the first three quarters should have little to do with false statements and insider trading of listed companies, which is a systematic risk. Even if there is no insider trading of listed companies, and no consulting agency targets shareholders as fish and meat, investors will also lose a lot in the continuous decline of the stock market. Therefore, even if Chairman Guo made great efforts to completely eliminate insider trading and shut down all black mouthed institutions, investors will still be unable to escape the fate of large-scale losses. Therefore, it is better to provide every investor with a fair profit opportunity than to expect investors to make a full profit, neither allowing the stock market to rise excessively nor hitting the bottom when the stock market is weak.

Although the decline of the stock market is hated by most investors, it is also the result of the excessive increase of the stock market in the early stage and the prelude to a strong rebound of the stock index in the future. Investors who have lived in the market for a long time will not complain about the rise and fall of the stock market, but they sincerely hope that in the period when the stock market is not ideal, the management should issue fewer or no new shares to help the stock market recover as soon as possible, instead of hitting the P/E ratio of bank shares below 10 times, and the blue chip shares are severely oversold, Value investors cannot survive.

This column believes that the reform of the IPO system should be considered first by Chairman Guo. The IPO inquiry system has led to the injustice that a few institutions decide the fate of most investors. It should be changed to a new share offering by competitive bidding. All investors should make a joint inquiry. The higher the bid, the higher the price. Perhaps at the beginning, there will also be the possibility of breaking the IPO due to the high IPO price. But after one or two new shares, investors are naturally rational. The stock market is good, and the issuing price is higher; When the stock market is bad, the issuance of new shares will be suspended automatically, which is the real marketization.

Only God knows how much profit investors can make in the whole year. A-share investors have never really desired that all investors can make profits. What we hope is a high degree of fairness. In a fair market, most investors will be able to make rational investments and buyers will be conceited. {page_break}

The old mage looks at the board: carry out the culture to the end

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index once rose more than 20 points, but finally it softened a bit. After half a day's struggle, it only rose slightly by 1.77 points. It seems that there is still a lot of pressure above. However, the market's enthusiasm for the exploration of cultural industry concept stocks has not diminished, which has also made the overall market keep a high degree of activity in the near future.

Although many cultural concept stocks began to adjust, the early leading Tianzhou Culture (300148) (300148, closing price of 23.80 yuan) did not fall or even rise or fall within the intraday limit. Moreover, due to the wide coverage of "culture", the market has extended its tentacles to cultural concept stocks to a wider range of fields. For example, Yaoji Poker (002605) (002605, closing price 25.31 yuan), which went up and down yesterday, is a representative of card culture, while Sanglejin (300247) (300247, closing price 19.03 yuan) is a typical example of "sauna bath culture". Other stocks related to culture also showed a good momentum, and the main capital has the momentum of "culture to the end".

Why are individual stocks in the cultural industry so strong? A friend told me that a large fund company in Beijing had just held an internal meeting in Dujiangyan last weekend, and thought that the cultural media sector would be the main theme of hype in the next year, and was ready to launch a special event. I can't confirm whether this is true or not, but since funds have repeatedly hyped this sector, it shows that mainstream funds are not pessimistic about the overall market, otherwise they dare not participate in a sector so intensively and deeply. Therefore, the rise of the index may encounter some pressure, but it is not necessary to show pessimism, and the stock market will continue. {page_break}

Zheng Yankan Looks at the Market: A Sign of Global Economic Disadvantage A Shares Are Afraid of Re pressure

On Tuesday, there was a serious conflict in A-share news. The positive news mainly included the tax reduction policies for small and micro enterprises and the interest rate cut by the Bank of Australia. The negative news mainly included the PMI index was weaker than expected. This made the trend of the whole day more "tangled". The Shanghai Composite Index finally rose 0.07% to 2470.02 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.06% to 1041.51 points. Although the closing change was very small, the intraday shocks increased significantly, and the turnover also increased.

The PMI of manufacturing industry in October, compiled jointly by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics Purchasing, fell to 50.4 from 51.2 in September, a new low since February 2009, and was far less than the expected 51.8; The final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI in October rose to 51.0 from 49.9 in September, and the initial value announced a few days ago was 51.1.

These two manufacturing index samples are different. Everyone knows that the former focuses on large and medium-sized enterprises, while the latter focuses on small enterprises, but it should not be such a huge contrast.

In my opinion, many reasons (such as supporting small and micro enterprises, targeted easing, etc.) can only explain part of the contrast, but cannot fully support such a huge contrast. In fact, the support for small and medium-sized enterprises has been called for many years. Although there has been progress, the speed is slow. Now it may have improved, but it should also be a gradual process, and it will not change dramatically overnight.

Investors are also impatient about the data fight. The only way is to continue to look at the data in the next few months, finally or roughly guess which of the above data is relatively rough, and keep alert for it in the future. A while ago, two officials were sentenced for data disclosure. It is expected that in the future, the ability of large institutions to "predict" or "research and development" will be mostly reduced, and the level will be just that.

The Bank of Australia announced interest rate cut at noon yesterday, but the stock market fell 1.59% ahead of schedule on Monday, and then fell 1.55% on Tuesday. Australia's interest rate cut has some hints, that is, most other countries have less chance to further tighten their regulation, which of course also includes China, so this can be considered as a good thing. On the other hand, however, this also indicates the fact that the global economy is weakening, so the positive effect is discounted, which may make the PMI index of the above statistics bureau and the logistics procurement federation more credible, because Australia's economy is relatively more dependent on China's economy.

The day before yesterday, the Bank of Japan sold off yen in a big way, which is also a harbinger of the global economy. This indicates that Japan has been "forced to hurry". Generally speaking, Japan, which obeys the orders of the United States and Europe, is extremely cautious in intervening.

The trend of A-share may be difficult today, because Hong Kong shares fell after its closing on Tuesday, and the European shares that just opened fell sharply again. Although A-shares often trade in reverse with the external market, they usually "pass one but two", that is, if the external market maintains the same momentum for two consecutive days, they usually do not trade in reverse the next day, or only do it for half a day.

Therefore, in terms of operation, if we open low and move high today, the agency will pose an upward attack. The author believes that we should take the opportunity to sell, and we can ignore this strength. Today is the eighth day of the rebound. Even if the stock index can rise for a while, it is usually difficult to maintain. There are many opportunities to reach the top.

From the perspective of conventional logic, the stock index may have strong support at 2300 o'clock, because investors have reason to expect that the policy will continue to loosen. However, we should be more or less wary of "black swan" events, such as the "unexpected" rebound of China's property market, the "unexpected" outflow of hot money, and the deterioration of Greek and even Italian debt.