Interest Rate Increase Rumored To Revive &Nbsp; Cotton Continued To Rise And End.

First, futures market review

　　 Zheng cotton The main 09 contract opened at 27895 yuan, closing at 27395 points, down 2.27%. The turnover is 1438466 hands, and the positions are reduced by 410 to 240380 hands.

Two. Analysis of important factors

News: December 14th, a senior government official said on Tuesday that the annual cotton output in India is unlikely to be lower than the previous estimate, although the recent heavy rain in the main producing areas of the South has caused damage to some crops.

External news: US cotton March contract closed 144.28 cents / pound, up 2.35%. Cotton futures rose 5% on Tuesday, hitting the daily limit, and then dropping from the high point at the close, but still at a high of one month, supported by the prospect of China's demand.

Domestic spot market: in December 15th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 27112, up 170 points. The current price difference relative to the closing price of the 1101 contract is -938 yuan. In December 15th, China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) was 174.92, up 3.52. The import cost is 29464 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 29818 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

Matchmaking deal: December 15th, the national cotton Trading market The electronic matchmaking trade of commodity cotton was 16900 tons, 14940 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity increased by 2040 tons, and the total order quantity was 86720 tons. Today, the market is shrinking and its position has dropped. MA1101 average price of 27620 yuan, down 127 yuan. MA1105 average price of 27579 yuan, down 225 yuan.

Main trend: according to the top ten positions, today's zhengcotton total contract ranks more than 10 in the top 393 positions to 71913 hands, shorting 1954 to 68802 hands. Net more than 3111 hands. Today, the main net is rising more or less. The main force in recent years is at a high level, but on the other hand, there is obviously a tendency to wash dishes.

Warehouse receipt change: today's Zhengzhou No. 1 cotton The warehouse receipt is 99, and the effective forecast is 104.

Three. Technical analysis

Cotton 09 contract: all day low today. The highest point is 27985, the lowest point is 27380. For technical indicators, RSI and KDJ go down; MACD goes up, and red columns decrease. Today stepped back to the 5 day moving average of the afternoon, and the 27200 is the important supporting position in the short term.

Four, investment proposals

Today cotton has been adjusted, ending the rising day after day. Today, the commodity market has been very weak under the pressure of interest rate increase, and there has been a rapid diving in the morning. Due to the short-term rise too fast, the market has been adjusted, which is normal. Fundamentally speaking, the price of cotton yarn has not yet stabilized, and does not support the continuous rise in cotton prices. Fortunately, spot cotton prices stabilize and import cotton prices are higher than futures cotton, which has a better pull for the market. In the short term, the market may enter a short-term adjustment, and the support from the 27000 points below should be stronger. On the operation, it is suggested that investors should hold more cautiously and short term trading is the main factor.